Member Info for Mulder

Well unless a huge percentage of their 3 million customers have jumped ship (literally) - which ordinary PI's would be in the dark about anyway - then you would have to say the 40% drop is totally unwarranted. 3 months of total lockdown on the share price is far longer than Spire, Pets and Dixons Carphone as examples of similar 30-40% collapses which then rose strongly. It would appear from the outside that none of the large insurers are interested in Saga and its 3 million customers even with a half price sale on.

Not the 60M+ we saw yesterday but it looks like the big funds and institutions are returning and loading up again. Final dividend in May. To be fair to Ken 115p was mentioned several times and the implication was this would be hit regardless of any company updates or wider market news. Merger/takeover + shareholder returns from the nuclear sale remain a distinct possibility here also.

Hoping this can be a sign the bottom has been reached. 40% down in 2-3 weeks is absolutely dreadful and at a time when most shareholders were predicting a run up to 18p. If gold prices and the rand remain at the current levels then being brutally honest PAF will do well to break even in H2 and don't expect much of a dividend if any at the FY results. If buying now you have to look at Aug/Sept onwards when the 50K from Elikhulu comes on stream and drives overall costs down. Only then can we look for a return to EPS of 1p+. To be honest Cobus needs to seriously consider all offers for the company. Current market cap �177M; even a hefty premium to this say �300M is peanuts for what you get i.e. prospective production of 250K p.a. ZAR gold price is down over 1% again today.

As recently as November Batchelor gave the interview below saying he will build on the £2.1Bn market cap. 3 months later and the market cap is closer to £1Bn. The RNS stating trading was in line with expectations was only issued after a lot of PI pressure. People give Conn at Centrica a hard time - he must have mentioned shareholders at least a dozen times yesterday and apologised for the poor share price. Batchelor is far, far worse in comparison.

Comical how some posters appear on this board posting negative drivel then the next day more often than not post they have bought in! If you had no interest in buying here you would not be posting. PI's rarely drive prices of big caps like Centrica. Funds and institutions do. I very much doubt Blackrock, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse and co will be reading posts by Mr Joe Bloggs on LSE! Post what you want it will not influence the SP!

Usual MM driven crap guys....

Are you saying a �8Bn global utility company with significant oil&gas assets and annual revenue of �28Bn is expensive trading on a P/E of just 10?

South Africa's new leadership has started well, top mining boss says Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani praised the new start made by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. South Africa's new President Cyril Ramaphosa has begun his tenure on the right foot with the mining sector, a chief executive has told CNBC. "The new leadership under Mr. Ramaphosa has started very well," Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani said Thursday. "They've reached out their hands to the mining industry and said they want to see the industry grow." https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/south-africa-new-leadership-started-well-anglo-american-boss-says.html

Ramaphosa is almost universally seen as pro-business so not sure about the credibility of that article. He also served on the board of PAF and as Chairman only a few years ago so most likely will want to see them prosper and the mining industry as a whole. ********************************************************************************************************************************* �Investors have now priced in the removal of Jacob Zuma as president, but will be looking for some indications that macroeconomic conditions are set to improve before pricing in further gains into the rand,� he said Phillip Pearce, dealer at TreasuryONE, said sentiment would govern the rand�s movements on Monday, with no major data releases expected. He expects the local unit to trade in a range of between R11.55 and R11.72/$. Pearce agreed that Ramaphosa�s SONA was well received. �Many are expecting President Ramaphosa to begin a drastic clean of the house,� he said, adding that the new leader has already sidelined Minister of Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane in directly talking with the Chamber of Mines about the Mining Charter. As a result, the chamber�s application for a judicial review and setting aside of the charter has been postponed by mutual agreement. https://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/rand-still-enjoying-ramaphosa-rally-20180219

Yes of course the market is all a con. Highly illogical and irrational but how many of you bother to email or call the FCA market abuse and intelligence teams? They are useless but no harm in filing a report. One of these days they may earn their salary. How many have bothered to look at the figures for the current stock market darlings that have doubled or tripled in the past few years and the stupid multiples they are trading on? ASOS, Boohoo, Just Eat, Fevertree, Hutchison, Abcam and co. all trading on P/E's of 80+ even up to 100 !!

rxdav - MBA from Harvard probably answers your question about his attitude and indifference towards 'peasant' PI's. Salary package close to �10M in 3 years is not bad is it? Great reward for cutting the share price in half.

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent-business/county-news/saga-boss-exclusive-interview-lance-batchelor-says-investors-struggle-to-explain-business-plans-grow-tourism-division-shielded-from-brexit-135058/ Three years after leaving Domino�s Pizza, the chief executive of over-50s holiday and insurance giant Saga thinks the business is ready to build on its �2.1bn valuation. Lance Batchelor explained why he swapped pepperoni for pensioners � and how they have shielded the company from Brexit. ******************************* In 2014, travel accounted for just �4m of about �160m of profit. Last year that was �15m and when the two ships arrive they are expected to make more than �20m. Mr Batchelor said: �Insurance will be the majority of what we do in five years� time and possibly 10 years� time because it is very big and growing. �However, travel and cruise ships are growing even faster. �We make more money from insurance but half of our revenue comes from travel. �With the arrival of two new ships, both of which will be more profitable than the old ones, that tips the balance. �Whilst insurance continues to grow, we expect our travel division to be four to five times the size it is now in five years.�

I would say the market has assumed and priced in a reduction in production (+ a mine closure or two) for the last 6 months of the financial year now pre-Elikhulu coming on stream in August/September. ZAR gold price at levels not seen for over 2 years. SP down 40% in a month!!! Perhaps we should have gone for ASA gold after all!

Volume backs up your point that hedge funds and institutions have been buying in bulk today. Several �1M+ buys. 3x normal volume is massive. First hurdle is 146-147p Fair price? 15x earnings seems about right = 210p and a yield of 6%

I can see a Centrica style rise coming here soon. Both are apparently losing customers in a 'highly competitive' environment but both have similarly had their share prices annihilated this past year regardless of the fundamentals. If anything the dividend here is even safer with 1.6x cover and a final dividend of around 6p expected - yielding over 5% alone at the current share price. rxdav one can only assume the market either (i) has got hold of some seriously bad news that even the BOD and prospective short sellers (still showing as <0.5%) are not aware of/not been disclosed to PI's yet or (ii) the market believes the BOD are fibbing and their statement 'trading in line with expectations' is a total lie. Finally the market is saying the EPS of 13-14p giving a P/E of around 8 must also be a fabrication.

Only 1400. I doubt many of those will be sells. Was an outrage the share price for such a company was ever dropped so far. This is not some trash like Just Eat, Fevertree or Boohoo that is trading at over 80x earnings! Or Bitcoin trash for that matter.

To think people were predicting 18p-24p only a month ago!

No brainer.

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Today�s growth downgrade suggest the UK economy isn�t ready for an interest rate hike, suggests economist Sam Tombs. This is not an economy that obviously needs to be cooled with higher interest rates. https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/feb/22/markets-hit-by-interest-rate-hike-fears-uk-gdp-growth-report-business-live