Member Info for Mulder

Final dividend increased also.

Funny how the market always over-reacts (5% down on just this?) manically to a negative broker 'expert' comment but not the other way round. Let us see what happens to the SP if we see an upgrade from one of the many useless brokers in the next few days.

Trading at a 40% discount to the book value. A huge discrepancy to the Edison valuation also even discounting Evander.

The Elikhulu project is on track to commence production in early FY19, which will add c 52koz to PAF's production profile and propel EPS towards c 3p/sh. Additional near-term opportunities include the Egoli project (46% IRR and ZAR1.74bn NPV), the Fairview sub-vertical shaft project (adding 7-10koz to production pa) and the Royal Sheba project (c 30koz pa). Our all-in valuation of PAF is 19.59p/sh, of which Evander underground accounts for just 2.54p

Had another look at H1 and FY 2017 results. Again confirms why Evander had to be suspended. Full year to 30/6/2017 Baberton mines = PROFIT of �30.8M Evander mines = LOSS of �7.5M In H1 to 31/12/17 Evander did better and managed to eke out a small profit of �0.6M whilst Baberton underperformed with just �5M profit when this should have been closer to �15M. This meant EPS was just 0.2p for H1. If they can get Baberton mines back producing �30M gross profit as they did in 2016-17 and eke out �23M-�25M gross profit from Elikhulu (based on $1300/oz) then total group adjusted profit for 2018-19 can hit �50M+ I believe this equates to EPS of around 2.5p which means the shares are now trading at <3x forward earnings This is before mining 'depreciation' which seems to be included in every report and puts a dent in the EPS. Also expect a lot of exceptional costs in the FY results to June 2018 including the redundancy costs for the Evander retrenchment. A P/E of 3 is ridiculous but uncertainties over the SA government, Mantashe/mining charter, NUM unrest and possibility of another placing probably explain why the shares are now trading at less than half the price they were a year ago (16p) (!!). At the very least EPS for 2018-19 with Elikhulu (at current rates) should be around 1.5p giving a P/E 4.7

Evander is still operating until the end of the month actually. Also see RNS from 2nd May for Evander plans. Lung disease settlement for PAF likely to be negligible is my understanding. Evander sale to bolster cash reserves until Elikhulu starts up/August would be a good option IMO if right price received and would negate the need for another placing.

Usual sell off into the close.

Oil prices are 40% higher year on year - Spirit Energy should really be producing significantly higher profits.

BTW that link does not give a breakdown of how much PAF owe to settle and the company has remained mute. Johannesburg - The South African mining output contracted the most in two years in the month of March. Production shrank 8.4% from a year earlier, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said in a statement on Thursday. That�s the biggest contraction since March 2016 and compares with a revised 2% expansion in February, it said. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.2% increase. Platinum output contracted 6.1% compared with a revised 13% drop in February, while gold production plummeted 18%, the most since January 2015 and a sixth straight month of contraction. Aging infrastructure, reserve depletion and accidents have raised costs and curbed output in South Africa, once the world�s biggest gold producer.

Amazing how the revenue (annual) is over �600M but the operating profit last year was just �10M and this year expected to be �1M I believe. Low margins and the last CEO was clearly out of his depth.

Well he appealed the court's recent decision to keep BEE at 26%. He has not denounced the mineworkers or union claims to seize and nationalise Evander either. Constant hostile comments attacking mining companies, their poor safety records, lure for increased profits and the Sibanye deaths have obviously only emboldened him. He is as bad if not worse.

Vectura seem to have a strong and growing business in Japan. Sosei link makes more sense also given this. As someone in healthcare my worry is Flutiform is not first line here. Relvar, Seretide and Symbicort are the common ICS/LABA.

It does look from the slides that VEC are already researching copying the current GSK Ellipta range used for COPD and Asthma. This would take a few years before approval and launch. So GSK may well just buy VEC to avoid that risk especially given minimal debt and cash of £104M Problem with the court case is GSK is a heavyweight. Their lawyers will likely be hot shots and far better than the ones Vec can afford to hire. GSK win is more likely IMO hence why shorts are all over this.

Mantashe seems to be just as bad as Zwane. Clearly siding with the NUM. The companies and shareholders are seen as the bad boys in SA. Ramaphosa is also coming across as weak and clueless bowing down to the ultra hard right wing parties in SA who are driving white farmers from their land, in some cases murdering them and taking land without compensation. If what you say about R500K compensation then minimal but why is Cobus Loots not saying this??!

Up 5% Friday on no news. Down similar amount Thurs. Shorters playing with this.

Why is the UT having such an effect on the closing SP here. Does not happen with other shares. Almost hit 8p during the day so 7.2p is quite some difference!! Also more bad news I'm afraid which just seems to continue. Mantashe demanding that mineworkers are handed free shares and a seat on the boards. The Sibanye deaths have clearly not helped the public or NUM sentiments. NUM demanding a 40% payrise also. Still no update on lung compensation either.

I guess �13M x 5 years to 2021 = �65M which is a lot for a company VEC's size but peanuts to GSK Can you clear up exactly what separate action GSK are taking against Vectura.

Who's going? Batchelor & Co.

So basically it seems that even if VEC lose the court case (up against a heavyweight in GSK remember and they will be no doubt spending millions and - dirty game is law) they will not be paying out anything to GSK other than legal fees and the royalties would have been in addition to what is already shown on the balance sheet so the cash balance of �104M should remain steady.

Like last week a very poor close. Someone dumped a load at the bell.