Member Info for Muddled

I would suggest the biggest issue in delisting and listing on a minor exchange would be trading volumes, a lot of AM funds will require a minimum ADTV to have them in their portfolio. I would also have thought that a lot of UK pensions will have EVR in their portfolio, there element of shooting in foot scenario if they delist it. Not dissimilar to taxing oil companies for making too much money, almost every UK pension holder will have BP and Shell in there.

Unless you have a short position, which I don’t, I don’t know why you would want EVR to open again. I’m more than happy suspended, ideally until a treaty is reached.

Correct me if wrong, but are listed entities not required to have at least one independent non-executive director for every executive director on the board? Did I dream that…?!

Possibly silly question, BUT - hypothetically (I don’t think it will be), if the share is suspended is it so bad? I understand institutionals would normally pull once lifted, but much of this volatility is based on the war. If the war is over and suspension lifted, would we not see business as usual?

Actually, CNBC sorry. Interesting Lebvedev too, embarrassing for Boris.

***

Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, the outgoing owner of Chelsea FC and a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, has been sanctioned by U.K. authorities.

The British government said Thursday that Abramovich was among seven Russian businessmen added to its sanctions list as it ramps up pressure on the pariah state over its invasion of Ukraine.

The new list includes further members of Putin’s inner circle, such as Oleg Deripaska, Dmitri Lebedev and Igor Sechin.

All seven men will see their assets frozen and travel restricted

US have added Abramovich to sanctions list. (Bloomberg - don’t have link as is on app). Interesting to see what that does to US holdings, but presumably it freezes RA from selling his stake?

Interesting to see Vlad Lisin (Chair of NLMK - 21% of Russia domestic steel production) who is based in Moscow speaking out public ally against Putin. Interesting test case as to whether he seizes and nationalises assets, much easier to start with NLMK than EVR.

I see they have backtracked on their ‘no operations outside of Russia’ to today’s:

But Evraz is not a pureplay Russian steel producer. As noted above, the company only generates around a third of its revenues from the region. The rest of its operations are located across Asia, America, Africa and Europe.

Muddled

Check annual report. Should have breakdown of both regional revenues and profit, as well as product/service.

Not fill or kill, but buy limits at not placing at all for 5 or 10k, not tried bigger.

What will be very interesting is to see what Steve Odell (another NED) does. He only recently joined. He is someone I have worked with as recently as end of last year, the guy is a serious serious man - saved Ford in Europe by shutting down plants when GM turned and fled, going head to head with unions etc… turned around Volvo and sold it to the Chinese, he’s not afraid of tough situations. Let’s see.

Presumably doomsday for this stock is if they delist from london and move to Moscow, forcing retail in UK to sell at current prices. Is there a way that UK retail can hold Moscow listed stock to navigate this eventuality? Nothing else particularly scares me here, even a dividend suspension, it’s such a solid business with excellent cash flows.

Agree on pricing, KSA won’t buy, think they have enough reserves(!) and Russian Govt wouldn’t let them anyway. China maybe, but cheap. I don’t think BP makes any kind of decent sale of their stake. Russia cents on dollar most likely for me.

Speaking of Russia…EVRAZ looks very interesting at the moment. Could not be more different to PREM, but what a yield!

Hi All - been following the transformation plans in EVRAZ but not looked at as investable equity, until the price drop. Do holders have concerns on dividend being withheld? I have invested purely on basis of 24% yield with 5 year upside, which with such a comparatively low sp historically speaking would be crazy to change the divi… but stranger things have happened. As holders, have there been historical issues or recent rumours on this front?

I hope it does, I’ll take more profit out on the way up. I’d rather be derisked than all in. I believe in the stock, but I’m not blind to an inevitably bumpy ride.

Long term holder, averaged down to .14. Very happy taking profits at .4 and leaving initial stake. May buy more if it drops again to .25ish. Still a very long way to go in this stock, and I am very wary of Chinese refiners if the mine goes it alone and doesn’t sell to a big boy.

Hi all, had a buy order at .16 which HL failed to place. Has anyone had this problem with HL? They have never failed me before and one of the reasons I trade with them.

The execution side of this isn’t rocket science, but it isn’t simple - external stakeholders and licences (governments...) etc...

For the me, the issue is that refining is the bottleneck in EV supply chain, currently all hydroxide comes out of china. The refiners have many equity positions in Australian spodumene producers and thus are going to buy from there. As demand rockets (as it is) they will look to new producers, but they will screw them on price, which is why so many miners in Oz have gone under.

I would look to new refiners, have a look at Green Lithium as an example, but try and time offtake with when they come online.

Of course the big win is an OEM to vertically integrate their supply chain, but I’m not sure they’d have the appetite to go that far upstream!

Interested to hear people’s opinion here, because my problem with Prem and management is that it isn’t a balanced portfolio. With no residual income and a lack of clarity on objectives over the next 24 months against costs, how can I put a floor on this stock?

Zulu is exciting, albeit precarious with a very, very long way to go - and please don’t underestimate how shafted they will be if they cannot get an offtake agreement from a non-Chinese refinery, which may be required by the banks to release debt, by far my preferred method of financing operations. It doesn’t matter how great the mine is, if the price isn’t right going out of the door you’re going out of business.

But, all being well - and I hope it does go well, you can start to plug numbers in to value an upside with stress-testing on price levels.

BUT - again, where do you place the floor?

Forgive the rambling, but interested to discuss.