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I notice that Georgina only filed their accounts for their year ended 30 April 2023 a couple of days ago, and wonder if this might have been a requirement holding up FCA approval? If so, then clearly that requirement has now been met.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11954589/filing-history
So where does this go from here?
We are now beyond the last debt extension deadline - will creditors continue to extend having been given "comfort" now we have the ability to raise, or will they insist on payment necessitating a raise? If the latter, then given the state of the capital markets I worry about our ability to raise all that's required, and the level of discount if we could.
Salignostics post from yesterday
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/salignostics_salistick-salivapregnancytest-empowerment-activity-7168604843752710144-KVDz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Anti Microbial (Antibiotic) Resistance (AMR) is often called the next, or silent pandemic, and is perhaps the biggest threat to human health globally. Back in 2019 (I think) a push was made to advance rapid diagnostics to help quickly differentiate between bacterial and viral infections, and so help clinicians properly target antibiotics to those actually needing (so reducing the spread of resistance to them), but progress has been slow. Now there is a new push…
https://www.pathologyinpractice.com/story/44043/coalition-calls-for-testing-to-tackle-threat-of-amr
Interesting then that last year Senzo (who we who have been developing an AMR LFT) spent many weeks posting about the problem, and now they’ve been selected to join an innovative partnership of six developers chosen for their technology’s potential impact on AMR, the validation they have achieved in a clinical environment, and the benefit they would receive from a programme of support to commercialise and scale.
https://hicdigital.co.uk/six-companies-tackling-amr-join-innovation-programme/
In other posts I talked about how gushers or revolutionary new treatments are the Aim Junkies drug, but that ABDX couldn’t offer them that. Well if, and it is a big if, Senzo did get an AMR test to market (and remember they offer a PCR level of accuracy in their tests), and we contracted to make it, then that would truly be our gusher.
https://www.senzo.com/newsroom/senzo-and-abingdon-health-enter-into-strategic-partnership
Just another possible string to our bow.
?!
We’ve been told the company needs additional working capital, and that to raise it they need to restructure the share base. Ergo, as soon as they’ve consolidated there will be a dilutive raise. Whether or not that’s just for the £2m they’ve undertaken not to raise beyond, or whether it’s far more so one or both creditors can be satisfied, is really the only question in my mind.
Reflecting a little more on your question, and for some balance, the fact remains that we are still loss making at this point and continue to have a negative cash burn. That might put some off, particularly if they feel we’ll need to raise before the tanker has turned.
The interims are due at the end of March. I don’t think they will tell us any more than we already know about our H1 trading revenue, but they may well give us an updated cash position and expectations/outlook for H2 which in turn would help us re-evaluate the burn rate and overall progress to cash flow break even.
But as Yates has repeated, the Board (being significant shareholders) don’t want a dilutive raise and are suggesting cash flow breakeven should be achieved (on a rolling 12 month basis) either by the end of this financial year (June 30) or in H1 next year. To do that Yates reckons we need £8-9m revenue depending on the revenue mix/margins, so for him to even suggest that’s possible by June indicates strongly that our H2 revenue will be a lot higher than our £2.4m H1 numbers. And remember, Yates will have a clear picture of revenue expectations given it’s all based on contracted milestone payments.
Ultimately, I see a company targeting a varied and growing market that has prudently re-positioned its service offering to secure its financial foundations, with the expectation that one or more of its partners (which its able to cherry pick given the lack scarcity of CRO/CDMO competition) will successfully commercialise and require manufacture at scale. I’m encouraged by progress to date, excited by the people we’re working with, comforted by strong Director alignment, firmly believe that decentralised testing/healthcare will be the norm in years to come, and note with interest that our US originating revenue represented our biggest growth geography last year.
That’s why I think this is cheap as chips at the moment and will keep adding whilst we’re under the radar. For me the potential upside massively outweighs the risks right now given that one of any number of potential catalysts will see this low free float company SP rise and stay there.
All just my opinion and happy to be challenged!
I think how much there is in the basin is only part of the question. What it will take to get it out commercially is the bit that’s missing and what the market wants to know. I have no doubt there’s plenty of helium at high concentration down there but, as Lorna repeats, this is a unique play requiring a different mindset.
You say “ That HE1 is registered in Tortola , there is no requisite for the release of a TR1 by Companies domicile in the BVI`s .”
I don’t think that’s correct. HE1 May be registered in BVI but it is listed on AIM and subject to AIM rules. AIM rule 17 requires it to notify any changes to significant shareholders, defined as any person with a holding of more than 3%.
Happy to stand corrected if I’m wrong!
Js15 - flow rates are certainly something I’m looking out for.
We’ve been told “ high concentrations of helium began to flow to surface FOLLOWING REVERSE CIRCULATION and yielded a compositional mix up to 4.7% helium, 1.5% argon, 8% oxygen and 86% nitrogen.” (my emphasis).
I’m no expert at all, but that sounds like the flow to surface was done with a little man made help. Natural flow rates and, therefore I suppose, what extra might be needed to help it along, seems pretty important to me.
I think the most obvious reason is because we’re not attracting investors at this stage in our turnaround!
It seems to me that plenty of PI’s invest in AIM companies for the thrill of a potential short term “bagger” or “multi bagger”, and so to attract the “herd” companies need to give them something exciting to hope for, like the prospect of a gusher or a revolutionary clinical treatment, and to shout about it from the rooftops.
We have a company in ABDX that barely whispers its prospects, and which at the moment is concentrating on laying necessary foundations through fee based CRO and CDMO services which to AIM junkies is just boring. And I’m afraid that diagnostics just don’t engender the same excitement as therapeutics or treatments. Personally I think that’s blinkered thinking in a society quietly moving towards decentralised healthcare, but there you go.
Going further, people just don’t get excited about animal, environmental or plant pathogen testing despite significant opportunities there - you ask the average Jo what ABDX does and they’d probably comment “weren’t they that COVID testing company”.
We know, of course, about the wide variety of LFT uses and that our groundwork has two functions; to put the company on a stable financial footing, and to spread our net in hope of helping partners to develop a”gusher” product or products that we contract to manufacture. But to get to manufacture we first have to wade through an uncertain regulatory mire.
We will attract the herd when we get to the point of having material manufacturing deals, which is why I’ve been so excited about our relationship with Upfront and 52N given that their route to market and just been accelerated by inclusion in IDAP.
Another (shorter!) one for anyone interested, this time focussing on 52 North an Innovate UK success story. It was filmed in Jan 24 prior to their IDAP success , but interestingly does comment on their international and particularly US ambitions half way through.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLK0hB_et6Y