Member Info for mrtibbles

FACT CHECK
Do Rishi Sunak's claims about hospital discharge funding stack up?
During Prime Minister’s Questions on 8 February, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a series of claims about hospital discharge funding. He said part of £14 billion in new health and social care funding will go to a new discharge fund aimed at speeding up hospital discharges in England.
He added that this money was “already making a difference” and that “we can see the numbers of people unnecessarily in hospitals are already reducing, easing the burdens in our accident and emergency departments”.
Over the past two weeks we’ve tried to fact check these claims, but this has been difficult because Number 10 has declined to explain what specific information Mr Sunak was referring to or provide any evidence to back up what he said. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has given us details of funding set aside to speed up discharge, but has not clarified what Mr Sunak’s claims were based on.
This is disappointing. Politicians making serious claims in public debate should be prepared to explain their claims and support them with evidence. Number 10 has also failed to back up two other claims from Mr Sunak in recent weeks, on A&E patient flow and Labour party funding!

On 1 February, the Prime Minister told the House of Commons that the Labour Party and Sir Keir Starmer are “bankrolled” by the protest group Just Stop Oil. We fact checked this and found no evidence that it was true.
On 8 February, we wrote to the Prime Minister and asked him to back up his claim with evidence or correct the record. He has not responded.
So far, more than 3,700 people have written to the Prime Minister to ask him to correct the record.
As of this week, more than 40,000 people have signed our petition to improve the corrections system in Parliament. Under current rules, the Prime Minister is one of the few MPs who can officially correct the record. But he has not yet chosen to do so!

Reuters Friday February 24, 2023 10:48
NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to lower inflation without a significant blow to U.S. economic activity and a sharp rise in unemployment, and even then may miss its 2% inflation target for years to come, a group of top economists concluded after a review of central banks' past inflation battles.
The study looked at 16 episodes since 1950, including six in the United States and others in Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom, in which central banks used rising interest rates to engineer "disinflation," which the research defined as a decline in the inflation rate of around 2 percentage points or more.
"We find no instance in which a significant central bank-induced disinflation occurred without a recession," said the researchers, who included Brandeis International Business School professor Stephen Cecchetti, who is a former top economist at the Bank for International Settlements; Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan; and Columbia Business School professor Frederic Mishkin, who is a former Fed governor and longtime research collaborator with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
The research was presented on Friday at a conference organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, with Fed policymakers slated to discuss the findings.
The study is not the first to argue that the Fed's outlook for the economy, dubbed an "immaculate disinflation" by some observers, is unrealistic and will at some point force policymakers into hard choices about how much higher interest rates may need to rise in order to lower inflation and how steep a price they are willing to pay in terms of job losses. Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable.
But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Some parts of the economy, including the housing sector, have been hit hard by tighter credit conditions, yet the unemployment rate has not budged and overall growth has remained resilient - facts Fed officials say argues for a possible "soft landing" in which the economy weakens without falling into recession.
However, that very resilience, and a recent slowdown in the progress seen in month-to-month inflation data, has raised questions about whether the Fed will need to force interest rates higher than anticipated, at a greater cost to the economy.
'MILD RECESSION'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-24/Fed-needs-a-recession-to-win-inflation-fight-study-shows.html

Friday, 2/24/2023 15:25
GOLD and SILVER sank against a rising Dollar on Friday as Western stock markets also fell on the 1st anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine after new US data said inflation in the world's largest economy is running hotter than analysts and traders expected, even when fuel and food prices are ignored.

Hitting new 2-month and 3-month lows respectively at $1809 and $21.85 per ounce, gold and silver have lost some $150 and 15% from New Year 2023's 9-month highs.

Fixed-income bond prices also sank after today's stronger-than-expected PCE inflation data, driving 2-year US Treasury yields up above 4.8% per annum, the highest since July 2007 – eve of the global financial crisis – while 10-year yields hit 3.95%, up 0.6 percentage points from mid-January's 4-month low.
That still left the US yield curve deeply inverted – widely seen as a signal of recession ahead – after yesterday's 2nd estimate for year-end economic growth was cut by an upwards revision to the GDP purchasing price index.
With today's core PCE reading for January coming in at 4.7% per year, one-in-3 bets on next month's Fed interest-rate decision now see the US central bank hiking by 0.5 points to a ceiling of 5.25%, up from fewer than 1-in-30 bets this time last month according to the CME derivatives exchange's FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead to December's decision, just 1.6% of betting now sees the Fed ending 2023 at today's rate beneath 5.0% or lower, down from more than 4-in-5 bets at this point last month.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-silver-022420232

Russia’s Cyberattack exposes U.S 2 Quadrillion dollar dilemma

Andrew Maguire reveals the widely unreported details of Russia’s ransomware attack which has disrupted the CFTC platform, causing a month-long delay in their weekly COT Report submission.
The London wholesaler points out the magnitude of risk this cyber attack poses to the financial sector, explaining the effects of currency weaponisation in the deepening geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXCpck8Xh14

Fair Comments Somnama,
Most of these mining conferences are a big "Jolly" for those that attend and an opportunity for some overpaid greedy parasitic CEO's to spout copious amounts of what they know to be unachievable promises in order to reel in gullible, and even trusting investors to raise funds for keeping no hope projects going a bit longer!!
Martin & Ross have likely realised this and are quite rightly getting on with the job of turning Centamin around into he company that has often being promised in the past, but never delivered!
Its actual, measurable and delivered results that are needed now!

Endeavour didn't take us as you put it because they were unable to execute the due diligence precess fully , ell now we know why there was the pile of crap at Sukari and the less than commercially viable West African asserts , which did make a nice little earner for he drilling companies some of which Pardey had close ties with!
Then of course is "Seb" to be trusted , Endeavour’s Centamin merger bid faces new setback as French officials launch corruption investigation into CEO
https://enterprise.press/stories/2019/12/09/endeavours-centamin-merger-bid-faces-new-setback-as-french-officials-launch-corruption-investigation-into-ceo-8004/
- The AISC cost does not cover ALL cash outlays required to keep mining. See my note. An important component is hidden by classifying these as “growth”.

Use the suggestion at the end of the note to be able to compare the relative performance of companies. Centamin stands out as one of the few companies that consistently generates positive cash flow and able to pay dividends. What has Endeavour done? Lately the company is doing very well, but the table below is for the period 1 April 2008 and 30 March 2019, which is extracted from working notes in a company valuation. Horrible history.
Endeavour Mining Corporation
Financial Performance From 1 April 2008 Until 30 March 2019
Year Ending 31 Dec 18 months 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Totals
US$'000
Ore Mined 467 2,876 3,228 4,366 6,713 6,898 7,554 11,086 9,597 1,285 54,070
Waste Mined 40,252 46,435 53,003 46,451 9,707 195,848
strip ratio 5.84 6.15 4.78 4.84 7.55
Total Milled/Stacked 467 2,496 3,307 4,211 6,304 7,171 8,383 10,791 9,948 1,815 54,893
Grade 3.09 2.23 2.26 2.62 2.48 2.40 2.25 1.90 1.59 0.98 2.10
Contained Gold 46,400 179,149 239,867 354,145 502,001 553,183 606,770 659,263 510,145 57,169 3,708,091
Gold Produced 44,407 163,769 210,209 318,143 465,770 516,646 559,190 593,815 450,140 56,648 3,378,737


Cash from Operations -11,179 -8,548 93,374 43,834 127,438 147,301 153,899 221,791 250,920 22,916 1,041,746
Investments 83,640 -145,347 -180,226 -148,556 -112,881 -7,306 -180,177 -478,728 -453,319 -109,857 -1,732,757
Financing -28,083 102,658 77,131 71,642 -27,166 -91,743 41,999 251,741 204,467 47,452 650,098
of which Equity 579 2,706 6,012 2,720 73 0 185,285 107,755 -1,356 238 305,130
Effect of X-rate 1108 -784 344 504 1,464 -912 -944 3,604 -748 -499 3,137
Change in Cash 0 45,486 -52,021 -9,377 -32,576 -11,145 47,340 14,777 -1,592 1,320 -39,988 -37,776
Cash at Year-end 167,300 115,279 105,902 73,326 62,179 109,519 124,294 122,702 124,022 84,034

Fair comments andobservations Paul!
As you imply Ocado price overblown based on analysts spin and bullsh*t, rather like the Centamin of the past built up on Pardey & Youssef's "Pie in the sky"which we were willing to believe, but then why wouldn't we, they were after all supposed to be professionally competent, posses integrity and to be acting in our best interests, they weren't , they conned us and a lot more other people besides!
What good market regulation, no use to the likes of us it's all a farce, the market is run for the benefit of the market by those in the exclusive inner clubrooms!
Kinesis & Basil 3 should and could have changed things for the better, unfortunately those of the inner club that control the markets only abide by the rules of fair play when it suits their best interests with the acquiescence of the government and the toothless regulator!
You mentioned "Boo Hoo", wouldn't touch it with a bargepole, "Sh*thouse" outfit, lousy employer, sources its clothes from sweatshops that abuse their workers and in reality is he leftover of asset stripper and king of stinkers "Sir Phillip green", what happened to him, bugger all!
https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/sir-philip-green-bhs-arcadia-marks-and-spencer-topshop-metoo-b83016.html

Kind Regards
Tibbs

AISC is a very flawed metric that can easily be manipulated and does not reflect the true cost of mining.
It is simplistic to believe that gold mines will be mothballed when they cannot produce at positive cash flow. There are a myriad of gold producers that have to go back to the market continuously for funding with gullible investors prepared to do.

- The AISC cost does not cover ALL cash outlays required to keep mining.
An important component is hidden by classifying these as “growth”.
Centamin stands out as one of the few companies that consistently generates positive cash flow and able to pay dividends.

Doubt Endeavour will ever get paid, these funds will end up in the pockets of corrupt government officials or possibly get confiscated by one of the fundamentalist groups, either way its a kick in the crotch for Endeavour share holders!

Hi Paul,
Centamin holders certainly need that!

I wonder how reliable is Larry's opinion?
Larry Summers said the Federal Reserve's efforts to cool inflation via interest-rate hikes aren't doing the job.
"The Fed's been trying to put the brakes on, and it doesn't look like the brakes are getting much traction," he said.
That could set the US economy up for a "collision or crash", the former Treasury Secretary said.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-larry-summers-economy-collision-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-fail-2023-2

After reading your comments I came across the Australian Migration and Population dashboard below, is this what you based your conclusions on?

Australian Migration and Population Dashboard

Introduction
This website brings together Australian Government statistics to provide a single source of truth for current migration statistics. Each chart sorts and compares publicly available data to explain Australia’s migration and population story.
All sources are transparently marked and linked. As new or updated data becomes available, we’ll add it to this site. By showcasing reliable data, and making it more accessible, this site aims to inform public discussion and understanding of migration and population in Australia.

https://scanloninstitute.org.au/publications/migrationdashboard

Hi Mr Gnome,
Why did Burkina Faso become Al-Qaeda's latest target?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/18/why-did-burkina-faso-become-al-qaidas-latest-target

Well-documented Russian bombings and missile strikes in Ukraine have decimated hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings, including a theater in Mariupol where hundreds of children were sheltering and the Kramatorsk rail station where thousands were waiting to escape the Russian onslaught. The withdrawal of Russian troops from towns like Bucha, Chernihiv, and Sumy has revealed horrific scenes of civilian carnage, mass graves, and reports of rape and torture. Several world leaders have accused Russia of committing genocide against the people of Ukraine.
https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/russian-war-crimes-ukraine
Footage of Russian troops shooting a man with his hands up on a highway outside Kyiv at the beginning of March was shared around the world. Now the Russians have been pushed out of the area and the BBC's Jeremy Bowen has been to see the grim aftermath of their short-lived occupation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60949791
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60690688

There are now concerns in Europe and the US that Burkina Faso will also turn its back on the West to seek Moscow’s help.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/happy-russians-came-burkina-faso-170224791.html

Ah, thank you Steve, I see what you were getting at!
Regards
Tibbs

Hi Steve,
Depends on the interpretation of massive gains, they are very different depending on which level of society you are fortunate or unfortunate enough to live / exist in.
True the stock market indices seem to be at record levels but the value of so many of the shares in even the blue chip companies are nothing near waht they were when I held some of them over a decade ago,
Stan.Lon £23 when sold and paying a good dividend, today £7.57, Tullow oil £6.50 when I sold ,33p today, Kaz £18.00 when sold. today £7.57 and I hate to think what some of the others are now and yet the ftse at record highs?
Certainly there have been massive gains in the cost of living , house prices pumped up on the back of ridiculously low interest rates and then QE to erode [peoples money further by subsidising the City casino.
Also true the very rich have gotten very much richer whilst the poorer parts of society are still struggling, even sinking under the financial burdens inflicted upon them by inept and greedy leaders the world over..
NHS service and public & utilities services are unfit for purpose since the private sector parasites got hold of them asset stripped all the best bits and now charge a lot more for less!

05:20 The US insiders game. What is really happening?
10:15 Central Bank Digital Currency designed to track and control you?
13:50 Switzerland voting to prevent cashless society
16:30 Digitalised physical gold plans - how conceivable it is?
19:00 Central banks hoarding gold? What are they preparing themselves for?
22:22 Russia, Ukraine, China… Is there a chance for a peace settlement?
25:35 The Fed triggered the commodity super cycle. Could gold and silver move up?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgykyB-njfQ&t=15s

Off Topic !
London, Friday 17th February 2023NatWest has today announced that its profits for 2022 were £5.1 billion. The results are accompanied by news that NatWest has raised its bonus pool for employees to £367 million, following the government’s removal of the cap on bankers’ bonuses late last year. This, coupled with the source of these profits being largely due to interest rate rises from the Bank of England, has renewed calls from Positive Money for a windfall tax on banks’ excess profits. They are directing supporters to a petition, calling for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to introduce this tax, with more bumper profits and bonuses likely to be announced by HSBC and Lloyd’s Bank next week.Fran Boait, executive director at Positive Money, commented: “NatWest is using bumper profits to deepen its bonus pool, not to support the public, who bailed it out just 15 years ago, and who are now footing the bill of the higher interest rates boosting those very same profits. “It is completely unjust that bankers who create only more wealth for the already-rich get pay boosts whilst those who educate, transport and care for the public are forced onto picket lines for fair wages.“Clearly the government was reckless in its decision to remove the cap on bankers’ bonuses, which needs to be reinstated, and should tax these unmerited profits in order to provide struggling communities with financial support.”https://positivemoney.org/2023/02/natwest-2022-profits-positive-money-response/?link_id=5&can_id=7912b55e72d6174409e36b7a8226a78d&source=email-lets-bring-in-a-windfall-tax-on-banks-2&email_referrer=email_1820280___subject_2324388&email_subject=lets-bring-in-a-windfall-tax-on-banks

Hi Master,
You may be used to forum such as T2W which has its place but is quite different to this one, however as a new holder of Centamin may I recommend that you make use of the vast wealth of knowledge on here from many of the LTH some of whom such as Dasut,Goldgnome, Mr Bond, Cowichan are former mining industry professionals or still practising geologists, other members such as Tornado, Bobliz, Rebess ,Sfeve, Sotolo, Rebess and Marmot have some considerable knowledge of how different aspects the markets work.
As far as Egyptian affairs go then Siko is the man on the ground as it were!
Sit back a little and learn about Centamin, it is a contrarian stock to say the leas!
Incidently, where is Marmot?

Tibbs