Member Info for mrtibbles

Thank you Razor's ,

Fingers crossed that this happens, even better with a high POG and with a decent reduction in AISC would be even better!

Tibbs

This lot seem very suspect!

About the dividends, the 2022 dividend was funded by taking up loans well and above the returned amount, and the 2021 dividend, which was paid by running down the cash balance.

This company is playing games. No dividends in the four years before that.

Have a look at the last 6 years of reported cash flow statements and it is clear that my point still stands:

At first glance these numbers look good, but where are the financial statements? I have no idea whether cash was raised through equity issues to pay down debt, etc.

Shanta Gold Limited (AIM:SHG, OTC:SAAGF) chief executive Eric Zurrin speaks to Thomas Warner from Proactive about how the East Africa-focused gold producer, developer and explorer has been performing so far this year.

He says that "life is good at Shanta" following a quarter in which production surged by 92% to 29,000 ounces and EBITDA leapt by 207% to $23mln, leading to an attractive EBITDA ratio of under two times. Additionally, net debt plunged by 54% to $9 million, representing a $10 million debt reduction in just one quarter.

Zurrin attributes these gains to the new mine, Singida, which has been a significant addition to their portfolio and also emphasises Tanzania's thriving mining sector, noting major investments by global giants like BHP and Barrick, underscoring the country's favourable business climate.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/217534/shanta-gold-smashes-records-as-revenues-soar-217534.html

It could be all fine, the detail is lacking to get a proper picture.

Hi Alhamd,

Good to hear from you and we are all hoping that your prophecy for Centamin for the future comes true yet again!

Kind Regards

Tibbs

Well said Mr Bond,

As we all know it is'nt the dollar that's strong at all considering the US national debt, if it wasn't for the dollar being the worlds reserve currency it would be almost junk status, the real strength lies with the FED cartel because to them the truth is whatever they want it to be and they really don't care a fig because they have the power to pump up or squish what ever commodity or currency they choose!

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are being held back by the strong U.S. dollar, while weak physical demand for silver could be offset by the return of investment demand, according to the latest precious metals report from analysts at Heraeus.

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-22/gold-prices-restrained-dollar-strength-silver-investment-demand-could

Excellent news Razor's , it;s about time some of these crooked CEO buggers were made to pay back for their past underhand and in many cases deceitful behaviour!

For far too long deception and crookery have been seen as to be almost just part of the course in the markets and and that deception of shareholders, lying to the media and in in some cases assert stripping businesses and thieving money out of the company workers pension funds is just business, no it's time to start taking back what they haven't earned honestly and locking a few of the buggers up!

I think some of Centamins past senior management should have to pay back some of their unjustified bonuses and rearwards in compensation for not being truthful in the past and creating such a f*ck up at Sukari!

Remember this former Rover employees do and they weren't alone in having their pension stolen by thieving CEO's and other fund directors!

Nick Mathiason explains how deals with private equity links are accused of leading to the downfall of pension schemes

Sun 10 Jun 2007 00.07 BST

Can workers in 21st-century Britain have their pensions stolen from under their noses? This is exactly what the GMB union says has happened to hundreds of thousands of employees of companies that collapsed after being bought by private equity firms.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/jun/10/privateequity.statepensions

Tibbs

HI Mr Bond,

Making a profit is fine, although the market doesn't seem that convinced about how its being achieved because without the present reasonable gold price the cost of the open pit would unmanageable for very long.

You r opion is as always gretaly appreciated Dasut,

Do you recall how the many times Andrew Pardey and others reported almost every quarter the great promise offered by the Cleopatra slope, how many millions spent over how many many years moving piles of muck , I wonder Cleopatra is never really mentioned-now, what happened did it just melt away or was it just buried under the pile of Pardey's uncleared crap?

Tibbs

It seems though that some are unable to accept that after over eight years it is ever more apparent that unless the grades of the Sukari open pit improve considerably then it is providing little or no commercial viability to the company and might well be regarded rather as some charitable trust that is just about breaking even, although admittedly providing some support for the Egyptian economy and employment for the Egyptian workforce.

But that said if it is to be accepted that the Sukari open pit isn’t contributing, or ever likely to contribute any profits, but will be kept running for other possibly political reasons then it is essential to continue to concentrate on and maximise output from the underground operations, as we are well aware this was something which Andrew Pardey and the previous management always refused to admit and preferred instead to try and gloss over the reality by high grading and hoping that things might come right in the end, possibly this was because they lacked the appropriate expertise in underground mining which I am told isn’t normally common practice in Egypt?

The reply and link to a technical article on grades below from Gnome to Dasut, I am somewhat puzzled by the arguments expressed by the author as I was always of the impression that the quality of the grades are paramount and are one of the main reasons to decide if mining in a particular area can ever be commercially viable?

Quite so Dasut,

These may well all be valid comments., but the fact of the matter is that with such grade the open pit operation makes very little cash flow. at best!

Rebess hit the nail on the head when he stated "Barely a grain of rice amongst a ton of rock!"

This seems to be basket case mining, if you consider, the environmental emissions how much diesel is used , wear and tear on plant and all the other associated cost's shifting thousand of tons of years worths of spoil and other associated crap to little more than break even!!

Pardey was well aware of he poor grades in the open pit in 2015 and in 2018 although he and the previous management denied just how crucial the better quality grades of underground workings were to the Sukari mines commercial viability and just carried on high grading resulting in huge ;piles of poor quality ore which instead of being cleared away was allowed to accumulate so making access and egress to the underground workings more difficult rather than concentrating on improving and developing the access and egress to the underground workings.

I don't need to remind you that Pardey was responsible for overseeing Barminco the specialist underground drilling contractor who allowed the sole LHDR to be run on its limits until it finally suffered a severe breakdown for which the contactor Barninco had no contingency plan or spare parts available to repair it, this period of LHDR breakdown and the loss of production made very apparent the importance of the underground workings ,although again at the time Pardey played this down claiming that "There were some spare parts issues!"

Admittedly the LHDR was eventually repaired and an additional LHDR was purchased by Centamin

But nothing else really changed, the waste ore was still allowed to accumulate without any clearance plan being put in place.

3bear ,

Open pit grade of 0.78 g/t is still terribly low and its doubtful they make positive cash flow at that grade after capex spending.

The poor open pit grades are why past production was unreliable and erratic and why they created such a pile of poor grade spoil because they were trying to gloss over the poor grades of the open pit by high grading

Ever since 2015 Kees Dekker analyst has always maintained that the cash flow predominantly comes from underground mining, this is still the case and why it is essential to make the underground working more easily accessible

Better link!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DocIr2JSLp4

Alasdair Macleod, stockbroker and Head of Research for Goldmoney on the US dollar hegemony and its impact on the price of gold.

http://tinyurl.com/bdzcaf22y

Capital has been awarded a letter of intent related to a five-year extension to its open-pit drilling services contract at Centamin’s Sukari gold mine in Egypt, with the contractor potentially extending its work there through to the end of 2029

https://im-mining.com/2024/01/19/capital-in-line-for-another-five-years-of-drilling-at-centamins-sukari/

Centamin (LSE: CEY; TSX: CEE) showcased a robust performance in 2023, achieving gold production of 450,058 ounces and successfully meeting its annual guidance for the third consecutive year.

For the current year, Centamin has outlined a production forecast ranging between 470,000 oz. and 500,000 oz. This outlook is driven by ongoing enhancements in output at its flagship Sukari mine in Egypt, capitalizing on a favourable gold price environment.

https://www.mining.com/centamin-annual-gold-production-meets-guidance-revenue-rises/

You may be aware.

Last week, Lula’s government pledged 1.2 billion reais ($245 million) on security and assistance efforts for the Yanomami, and Federal Police Director General Andrei Rodrigues said Brazil’s government must throw its full weight into defending the Indigenous people.

On Wednesday, Federal Police announced the start of a new operation against illegal mining in Yanomami territory and said in a statement they will have the support of the armed forces.

https://www.mining.com/web/gold-miners-bring-fresh-wave-of-suffering-to-brazils-yanomami/

So it would be unusual for the share price not to fall back a bit!

It's partly due to the closing of those CFD positions to take a bit of money off the table or pocket profit and avoid any Monday opening gap down!

Hi Dasut,

To honest , not my quote/ observation, it was from a senior broker on the train who represents some clients with considerable holdings of Centamin, evidently they were generally a little disappointed as they were were hoping for better, but they are now waiting to see what is revealed in March before making any decisions.

Rebess and other members,

After over eight years of trying to put it off the reality it's time s to finally admit the open pit is simply a drag on profitability at current grades!

From what Mr Horgan has stated in the past the whole point of the Capital waste moving project was to get access to better grades in more places, which is apparently underground!

Or is quarter 4 2023 an anomaly?

If not, I wonder how the EMRA would handle learning the open pit gold would be best left in the ground to ensure the viability of Sukari and future profits.

Likely the news would go down like a lead balloon!

Operational viability-

Run-of-Mine leaching has the advantage of very low processing cost and is used as an add-on that can generate cash flow as the overheads are carried by the higher grade ore than is treated conventionally. However it has usually a much lower metallurgical recovery.

However It cannot/should not be regarded as main production

So check 0.67 g/t Au feed and do some rough numbers.

Gold price - US$2,000/oz

US$64/g

Grade - 0.67

Value - US$43/t

Recovery - 80%

Value after treatment - US$34/t

Mining cost - US$3/t (I do not believe his US$2/t cost, that is nowhere in the world achieved apart from sometimes in Mexico).

Strip Ratio - 5

Mining Cost - 6 x US$3 = US$18/t

Processing Cost - US$10/t

G&A - US$5/t (= guess, I did not check)

Total Opex - US$33/t

Add to this Royalty + Sustaining Capex Cost + Corporate Overheads and you have negative cash flow.

Hi Dasut,

A highly experienced professional analysts opinion on today's RNS .

The fact of the matter is that with such grade the open pit operation makes nothing to very little cash flow.

In my reports I have also always pointed out that the Sukari resource model is based on Multiple Indicator (“MI") Kriging and that I suspect that the assumed selectivity of distinguishing between ore and waste is not possible resulting in more blocks of waste being designated ore and send for processing.

I think that MI is a very dangerous method of grade estimation and usually overestimates grade. In practice the selectivity does not occur resulting in lower grade. There are a number of other examples (Moose River, Brucejack) where they had to find out the hard way.

I shall be asking for the rationale behind Centamin’s chosen method of grade estimation, but then perhaps they prefer to employ those analysts data that give them the answers they want so that they can reel in the unsuspecting investors?

Tibbs