Member Info for mrtibbles

Gold Price estimate
Peel Hunt
2020 $1793
2021 $1975
2022 $1973

Hi,
When the news on the Oxford vaccine was announced this morning it was pretty certain that the MM would see it as an opportunity to churn the shares, i.e. spank gold and push the risk on equities again, I'm only surprised that POG didn't get hit sooner on our market , but of course the Yanks spanked it on Wall Street!
It is unfortunate to say the least that the pit wall problem occurred when it did, what is really annoying is that Pardey could have instigated proper stripping 5 years ago, then things would be very different now, but no instead he denied there were any potential problems and now the new CEO has to put things straight.

You can wish all you like Autonomy1, but I think you will be waiting a very long time for your 80p,
if you really know anything about Centamin and what its future potential is then I haver no doubt you would realise why .

Sukari recovery should take 12 months
Recent update reflects our worst-case scenario
At around the 150p level we thought the market was pricing in 10 months of
disruption to both production and profits at Centamin. However, with the stock
now below 130p, we see our worst-case scenario of 12-month disruption turning
into a reality. All in, it could even be as long as 15 months if CEY does not return
to a normalised run rate in Q4 2021.
Full recovery at Sukari open pit to take 12-15 months
As Chart 1 below sets out, we now believe production will run at rate of under
80k oz per quarter for the next three quarters. We expect to see an H2
production recovery in 2021, with production rates in Q4 close to normal for the
full quarter, which implies a normalised run rate by the end of Q4 2021. Much of
the lower production is due to accessing the lower grade Stage 5 of the open pit
and stockpiles near term, while the underground mine plan remains unchanged

Beyond 2021, CEY may aim for closer to the 500k oz mark at Sukari
While the recovery to a normalised run rate may not happen until the end of next
year on our forecasts, our normalised rates could well be lower than what CEY
has aimed for in recent years. Historically CEY was looking to produce +550k oz
at Sukari each year, while more recently that has been focused closer to the 500-
550k oz level.
However, going forward, we believe it’s possible we will see Sukari run as more
of a sustainable operation with a longer mine life at a lower annualised rate of
closer to 500k oz. For this reason we have forecast just 482k oz of production in
2022, down 11-12% from our previous forecast of 543k oz. The LOM asset
review on 2 December is likely to give more firm detail on what that mediumterm production profile could look like.
2021 and 2022 profit forecasts lowered by 25-30%
While we make only modest single-digit percentage changes to our 2020 profit
forecasts, our 2021 and 2022 EBITDA forecasts have been revised down 27-
29%, as set out in Table 1 below. Our EPS forecasts for both years have been
lowered by 31%. Our 2020-22 EBITDA forecasts are in line to just below
current consensus.
Cash buffer still intact, dividend unchanged
At the announcement of the instability in the Sukari open pit, we stated that we
saw the downside liquidity case resulting in close to US$250m of net cash in Q3
2021. That belief remains intact.
Our new forecasts do not account for any change in dividend forecasts. With a
final 2020 dividend forecast at USc6, and the total 2021 dividend forecast at
USc12 (both unchanged) we currently forecast that our cash low points to an
average of between US$240 and US$260m in 2021, with the absolute low point
of US$238m in Q3 2021 after payment of the 2021 interim dividend.
Target price lowered by 22% to 170p, upgrade to Buy
We continue to use a weighted average valuation using near-term EV/EBITDA
and a longer term NAV based valuation. As Table 2 bel

Peel Hunt Note 02nd Nov 2020-11-03 ( key points only no charts)

Upgrade to Buy
By mid-2021 we expect to be facing a much better near-term
outlook for H2 21 and H1 22, while the LOM review in
December should outline medium-term mine plans as well as any
cost-saving potential. With the CEY stock price off 37% since
2 October and a more visible path to production recovery at
Sukari, we have upgraded the stock to Buy (from Add)

Downgrading 2021 EBITDA by 29%, 2022 by 27%
We have cut our 2021 production forecast by 19% to 415k oz (from 513k oz) on
the back of renewed 2021 production guidance of 400-430k oz, which results in
a 29% decrease in 2021E EBITDA. We have also cut our 2022 production
forecast by 11% to 482k oz (from 543k oz), which results in an EBITDA
decrease of 27%. In 2021 we forecast average AISC at US$1173/oz, while in
2022 we forecast AISC at US$950/oz.
We see a normalised run rate by Q4 2021, but more of a cost focus
We believe a more sustainable level of production at Sukari could be around
500k oz, but at a lower cost level. While we have cut our production forecasts to
reflect a lower anticipated production rate going forward, we have not priced in
any additional cost benefits. We believe the heaviest bit of the additional
stripping in the open pit will take place in H1 2021, and we have forecast close to
a normalised production rate (140k oz) by Q4 2021.
Maintaining dividend forecast at USc12 in 2021
Despite the significantly lower production and profitability forecast for 2021 and
2022, we see good downside cash support at US$240-260m, and have forecast a
cash low of US$238m in Q3 2021. For this reason we have kept our final
dividend forecast of USc6 for 2020, as well as USc12 for 2021. With our below consensus profit forecasts in the coming two-to-three years, and no cut in the
dividend, we still have over US$300m of net cash forecast by the end of 2021.
Lower target by 22% to 170p. Upgrade to Buy rating
The substantial downgrade to our near-term earnings expectations results in a
22% cut to our target price from 218p to 170p. With 35% potential upside, we
upgrade CEY from Add to Buy. We expect the worst of the quarterly profits to
be behind us within nine months, and the 12-month EBITDA outlook by mid-
2021 to support higher valuations.

Sotolo,
Forget buyouts on the cheap it ain't going to happen especially now , the new CEO is quite clear he intends to increase share holder value by realising the value of unexploited asserts rather than crowing on for year after year about them and doing nothing. also selling out to the likes of Bristow at a knock down price will not be an option and Bristow never wants to pay a even a fair price, so that really is a non starter.
EMRA aren't naive by now they will have the cut of the likes of Bristow's jib!
I also have a strong suspicion that there is no need to worry about the divi, just wait and see!

Thank You Mr Bond,

https://enterprise.press/#tldr-story-05

Sotolo,
The initial orchestrated news on a vaccine breakthrough achieved its aim of knocking down the POG to try and deter people from demanding physical delivery.
Now those that orchestrate the markets mood to drive direction of the the POG are buying up huge amounts of bullion under the radar, those that are in control don't have to be as transparent as ordinary traders.
Whatever you view on the opinion of Andrew Maguire he is a decent chap who is in the know, just watch his latests broadcast from the link I posted on here.

Quite so Mr Bond, these funds like to appear to be doing something for their clients fee's.

easyp,
Trump is unfit for office that is why he lost.

Although he got something he had to do it in a roundabout way though, nothing ever straight forward with Sawiris!

https://kinesis.money/webinars/
In this week’s exploration of the gold and silver markets, Andrew Maguire reveals three fresh bullish drivers for physical silver that have emerged over the last fortnight.
The precious metals expert shares the gold and silver options sweet spots ahead of next Tuesday’s options expiry, as well as a medium and long-term view of both gold and silver.

Lets hope so George!

Hi Rebess
Yes wonder who could have have tipped of EMRA that Lord El Nagy was a fake?
Veritas Mining was the company,
ind-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/10692673/officers
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/3/365053/Business/Egypt%E2%80%99s-gold-mining-industry-Upcoming-exploration-.aspx#:~:text=Ahram%20Online%20contacted%20Lord%20Nabil%20El%20Nagy%2C%20the,in%202017%2C%20which%20was%20estimated%20at%20%24320%2C000%20

No Veritas Mining then , poor old Lord El Nagy king of the ringers!

Well done Siko!

Oh well Sawiris will be whingeing now!

Thank you Siko!

The SCC could do with stirring as they have become stagnant on Law 32!

Agreed Somnamma, the successful applicants are known, unfortunately the vast majority of people are unaware of which blocks have been allocated to whom, I wonder will EMRA and its partner have been given the first pick of the easier to reach and most succulent fruit, hopefully in close proximity to Sukari so the richness can be extracted sooner and more easily than having to set up a complete new operation, or will the officials shoot themselves in the foot and allocate their partners some dried up old prune of mediocre quality a long distance away?