Member Info for mrtibbles

The UK'S LBMA despite claiming to be ensuring fair prices in the bullion markets has been has been one of the major conspirators in running the paper price manipulation scam and it is now embroiled in £billions of unallocated bullion that under new regulations it will need to unwind
In desperation to try and gain some more time the LBMA IS citing Covid-19 disruption as justification, SO the LBMA has been granted a 6-month delay before Basel III rules directly affect day-to-day trading.
However it is widely believed the key player in the Loco London market will feel the effects of Basel III long before 2022.
As the primary global physical trading hubs and refineries are centered in Switzerland and Europe the LBMA cannot completely escape the market wide effects of this historic ruling.
Additionally, all market-making LBMA bullion banks also have a physical presence in the EU and Switzerland.
Like it or not the inseparable relationship between these pivotal bullion markets and the LBMA means there is no avoiding the impact of Basel and believes the new rules must still impact the hundreds of tonnes of unallocated gold cleared each day in the London market.
The LBMA has dug itself into a very deep hole which it may not get out of!
Even if it does then it will still have to comply with Besel 4!

Sotolo,

Put on the Leaoard Cohen CD it'd far it's especially good for manic depressives!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg

Or watch this presentation explaining how Basel 3 & 4 this should certainly help the POG and so in turn Centamin later this year, also have a listen to David Tice this bloke knows his stuff!

Andrew Maguire breaks down the three key gold price revaluation stairsteps and reveals his gold and silver price expectations in a post-Basel III and Basel IV market.
In this episode, the precious metals expert sits down with investment specialist, David Tice from Moran Tice Capital Management, to explore gold and silver within the wider economic context. The pair discuss the correlation between gold and the stock market and the prolifically bearish investor explains his remarkably bullish outlook for silver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZfBYNW2gsI

President Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 to help pay for a long-term economic program designed as a follow-up to the $1.9T coronavirus relief package, according to Bloomberg. The next initiative, which could come at a cost of $2T-$4T, would be paid for via increases in both the corporate tax rate and the individual rate for high earners. The goal is funding key initiatives like infrastructure and climate change, as well as expanding help for the poorest Americans.

What's on the table? While the White House has rejected an outright wealth tax, as pitched by Senator Elizabeth Warren, it does target the wealthy. Proposals: Raising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than $400,000 per year, expanding the estate tax's reach and implementing a higher capital gains tax rate for individuals earning at least $1M annually. It could also raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, pare back tax preferences for so-called pass-through businesses (such as LLCs or partnerships), as well as revise laws to stop U.S. companies from shifting jobs and profits offshore.

"While the next major fiscal proposal might come with a large headline number, it is likely to have a much smaller impact on growth in 2021 and 2022, as the spending will be more evenly distributed over several years and some of it will likely reflect spending that would have happened in any case," Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note.

Go deeper: Helping to pay for Biden's domestic agenda, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reportedly working with countries worldwide to forge an agreement on a "global minimum tax" for multinationals. Back in January, at her confirmation hearing, she said she wanted to work with the OECD to prevent a "race to the bottom" on corporate taxation. However, any OECD deal could be challenging because of its non-binding nature, and would likely need to be approved by Congress, which may be difficult depending on the specifics.

Hi Mr Gnome,
I was hoping that you may care to pass this petition around in Australia?
https://action.ifaw.org/page/56927/action/1?utm_source=SFMC&utm_medium=email&ms=KONDG210220002&cid=7013k000000w1rd

The catastrophic bushfires have killed 6,382 koalas and burned more than 5.3 million hectares in the Australian state of New South Wales, much of which was prime koala habitat.

The state’s koalas were living on the brink before the fires, with numbers plummeting and local extinctions occurring due to excessive land-clearing, drought, stress-related disease, car strikes, and dog attacks. This disaster could push them over the edge – we must act now, before it’s too late.

Join IFAW in calling on the Government to take emergency action to protect koalas and their habitat.

We cannot let this iconic species go extinct on our watch.
To:
Environment Minister
Hon. Matt
Kean MP
NSW Legislative Assembly
I am writing to you as one of IFAW’s eight million supporters to ask you to put emergency measures in place to protect New South Wales’s surviving koalas and their habitat.

The catastrophic bushfires have now burned more than five million hectares of land, much of which is prime koala habitat supporting high-density populations.

An IFAW-commissioned report by Dr Steve Phillips, Biolink has assessed the impact of the fires on the state’s koala population and the facts are impossible to ignore.

State-wide, more than 5,000 koalas have perished, almost 12% of the population. In three generations, we’ve lost as much as 65% of the population. The fires have all but destroyed many regionally-significant koala populations.

Koalas were living on a knife edge before the fires, with numbers plummeting and local extinctions occurring due to excessive land-clearing, drought, stress-related disease, car strikes and dog attacks. This disaster could push them over the edge.

This is an emergency and it calls for an emergency response. We cannot let this iconic species go extinct on our watch.

I am calling on you to enact emergency measures to allow the species the breathing space it needs to recover.

This includes implementing an immediate emergency up-listing from Vulnerable to Endangered and a moratorium on logging and clearing of koala habitat across the state. The government must ensure sufficient remaining native habitat is maintained as an emergency refuge for koalas and other wildlife and ecological processes.

It is an appropriate and justified precautionary response to this disaster that a hold is put on any harmful activities impacting koalas and their habitat, including native forest logging and land-clearing for development.

With fire intensity and frequency only likely to increase due to climate change, these populations may not have the chance to recover.

The world is watching. Failure to act would be reckless and irresponsible. Please don’t let this iconic species go extinct on your watch. Their future

Interesting thoughts Mr Bond!

https://www.atonresources.com/site/assets/files/1178/northern-miner-december-2016.pdf

https://www.dividendmax.com/

https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/share-tools/

https://www.ft.com/content/236805d6-6c19-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84

Hi Mr Bond
It was the best and only deal available at that time, but Centamin and its share holders took all the risk and provided all the investment Capex to get the Sukari mine up and running , EMRA didn't take any risk and neither did they provide one dollar in financial investment.
In addition Centamin has advanced substantial goodwill loan/advance payments to the government and invested in community infrastructure projects.
All over and above what it had to provide under the original contract terms.

Quite so Mr Bond, I must admit as a long term holder I realise that the chances of this happening are slim, very slim to say the least, but I think you will agree that Centamin can no longer be accused of enjoying special treatment or preferential terms, in fact quite the contrary seems to apply when compared to other miner's in Eygpt.
Certainly makes the court case a complete mockery in every respect!

The issue of if the existing Sukari concessions terms may be renegotiated or amended in some way to bring them more in line with the T&C of the most recent concession's has been broached many times by share holders written inquiry and by various participants during the webinar Q&A sessions, the answer from management has always been that the existing Sukari agreement will remain the same and there ifs no chance of changing it.
This does seem rather strange when considering that the outstanding court case was largely based on false accusations that the existing agreement is just unfair to Eygpt and that Centamin had been given preferential treatment by EMRA in some way
Yet now it seems that exactly the opposite as it may be claimed that the newly awarded concessions to mining companies give them considerable commercial advantage in comparison to Centamin's T&C of the existing existing Sukari concession, so surely some parity is now justifiable?

Officially the contract is suspended pending a ruling on it's validity by the court which has suspended the case until the SCC decide on the ratification or not of Law 32.
Sukari continues to function at EMRA's discretion at present, although unlikely the official contract may turn out to be invalid if the court decides against Centamin.
This is the reason that a 20% share price discount is still being applied by many brokers and why some institutional funds are deterred/ prevented from investing.
I understand that there is some spare processing capacity at Sukari as things stand at the present although this is dependent upon many factors
As already explained by Dasut the hauling of ore from satellite locations to Sukari for processing has its own problems, creation of new roadways, increased wear and tear on existing road ways and heavy plant, increased fuel and other operational costs that would make it uneconomical unless the new deposits were in the immediate vicinity of Sukari.
In addition there is the logistical problems of the waste removal of the open pit for which at present there is no published plan detailing any estimated interference or impact on the normal everyday production at Sukari
In view of the seemingly more advantageous terms and conditions of the most recently awarded concessions a ruling on the court case or ratification or rejection of Law 32 is is needed as a matter of urgency as either would give offer some certainty and clarity which would be reflected in the share price.
Its also worth bearing in mind that Fuel is the largest single OPEX cost for the business, a ruling in favor of Centamin on the outstanding disputed diesel fuel subsidy would most probably recover all the additional open pit waste removal costs and more!
In a share holder phone conference 10/11/15 it was stated by Andy Pardey CEO and Pierre Louw CFO that the excess cumulative cost to Centamin for unsubsidised fuel for 15 quarters from the beginning of 2012 when the government stopped the subsidy was $198 million .
Add to this Q4 subsidy $16 million. add to this the government loan $29 million Then the total owed by or lent to the government or State is $243 million.
08/03/2016 If there are 1152 million issued shares in Centamin then this loan equates to $0.21 or £0.15 per share.
(Bear in mind that a decision in our favour is unlikely to result in a cash payment to Centamin, but more likely to be accredited via some adjustment of the profit share in the future,)

The current 50/50 profit share will continue until the original (present)concession agreement and any extension options expire or unless renegotiated in some way, if Martin Horgan could achieve better terms that then it really would be some achievement!

This link will enable the download of a pdf file of Law 222 year 1994 (The original Sukari concession agreement) .
Please note the document consists of alternate pages of Arabic and English for obvious reasons.
http://gate.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2017/2/26/2017-636237441861789391-178.pdf
Page 46 onward details cost recovery and profit share

Info for new members please see re court case etc & profit share below ,but note the dates which at that time could not allow for the unexpected POG increases .
29/06/2016
The profit share will be what the profit share will be – the joint venture partner, ie the government, sits in the 50% owned subsidiary Sukari Gold Mines. The management board of this subsidiary has representatives of the government and an equal number from Centamin. All of the investment into the Sukari mine is audited, with Sukari Gold Mines very much being a part of this process. Similarly, all gold sales go through Sukari Gold Mines, where the operating surplus will be divided 50/50 between the government and Centamin, once the original capital has been repaid back to Centamin and its shareholders. The 3% royalty has been paid to the Egyptian Treasury ever since production started (this also goes through SGM).
With the above in mind, there is no issue with regards to the money that has been invested into Sukari, particularly the costs of Stage 4 (c.$350m) – this needs to be recouped before any of this operating surplus can be shared. This is not due to kick in until later this year, or possibly in Q1/Q2 next year. It is all a function of the ramp up in production and the gold price.
There is no dispute between Centamin, the Egyptian government and/or EMRA, nor the 50/50 Sukari Gold Mines subsidiary. What you are getting is probably a series of people mouthing off that they want profit share now. This is a political game more than anything, as the deal is the deal (in fact Centamin have advanced the country a few million dollars as a demonstration of their faith in this deal – this will also be recouped out of future operating surpluses due to the government).
What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow. In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%. To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay all beyond the above and the royalty, which on a blended rate compares reasonably well with other 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).

Siko also posted some info on the initial goodwill advance from Centamin

21/11/2017

https://www.arabfinance.com/2015/pages/news/newsdetails.aspx?Id=416470&lang=ar

http://www.alarab-news.com/ebusines/article-1421687.html

some figures from Mr-Yousef El-Raghy in case some of you find it useful:

-$12.2m advance profit share paid to EMRA in October 2017.
-$136m total advance profit share have been paid to EMRA since October 2016

Kees Dekker mining analyst was the author of two past critical reports on Sukari,the findings of which were denied by Andrew Pardey at the time, although the conclusions of both reports have since proven to be remarkably accurate!
In view of this I asked Kees for his thoughts on the BMO report which was highlighted by Cowicahn on this forum
IRR > 15% at gold US $1350 ounce
Prior to 2021 I don't believe any specific hurdles were articulated to shareholders in presentations or otherwise
it's on page 36 of February / page 8 of March
https://www.centamin.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/
Kees
It shows quite a change in Centamins attitude, the tone of the presentation is a lot better than in the past.
The next few years will involve much capital expenditure with much a higher waste/ore ratio being mined both in open pit and underground. As long as the precious metal prices hold they will easily cope.

Quite encouraging indeed!
Tibbs

Hi Market,
Great to hear from you again, hope you are still managing to enjoy a tot or two!

Best

Tibbs

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire breaks down the three key gold price revaluation stair steps and reveals his gold and silver price expectations in a post-Basel III and Basel IV market. In this episode, the precious metals expert sits down with investment specialist,
David Tice, to explore gold and silver within the wider economic context.
The pair discuss the correlation between gold and the stock market and the prolifically bearish investor explains his remarkably bullish outlook for silver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZfBYNW2gsI

So much for the stimulus package being good for gold, the FED will carry on printing money and nobody cares whatever the US debt, the dollar always wins by hook or by crook, or just plain old paper gold sales !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnfoUJxI2dM
The Captain lied, the boat is leaking, the good guys lost , the deal is rotton!