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Isnt the problem the LFL. In Q3 they said they were down 0.1% YTD. Now they are down around 4%. That means Q4 LFL crudely was c.-15%. This is why the shares are getting panned. They couldn't bring themselves to say that in the RNS and hence the FY figures being given and not the Q4 LFL. Whatever way you look at -15% LFL is ugly and until that reverses and they start to grow this is not investable. Infact the LFL decline has accelerated in Q3 from -10% to -15%.
The one good thing i thought was the reduction in staff 7,700 means 1,500 taken out from the peak which i think was 9,200 (could be wrong on that). However they need to be careful on this because 2 years ago they couldn't keep up with demand due to lack of staff and were losing business that way.
On the net debt - good its at the low end but this is just NWC timing. Nothing in terms of operational cash pre NWC has changed in Q4 as LFl and margin is line with what they said. The better net debt is all NWC which is just timing and of course the delayed £10m deferred consideration.
You have to laugh (unless you're an investor) at how rigged it all is - the two funds Kite Lake Capital and Caius Capital - that was good timing wasn't it! An aggressive shorting campaign right in the lead up to this news. OF COURSE they had no inside information as that would be illegal.
Jimmy the revenues are down 9% in q1. With price of 5% that means volumes in q1 are down nearly 15%. What’s good about the fwd signals? He’s refused to give q1 margin because they have probably made a loss in q1. He’s put the capex back in at 135m when last year they said cap ex would be massively scaled back.
This dog will lose another 90/100m cash this year by my calcs. I assume revenue will be flat (generous). Margin at 4% (3% in fy22 and almost certainly lower than 4% in q1) is 80m ebitda. Less capex of 135m, interest and rent of 50m and the usual exceptional items = 100 m cash outflow this year.
I told you all this a year ago but was shouted down and told beauty is the last thing to be cut by families.
I hope the bid comes because if it doesn’t come it will be a repeat of last time but worse. Many of the regulars on here and gambling now on a very binary decision making point. You may as well have put it on red or black. At least you won’t have a month of sleepless nights until may 15th.
Maybe intangibles/ goodwill impairment. Statutory number is meaningless.
The worrying thing here is the lfl growth in Wagamama of 2%. It’s all over for AH I’m afraid. He won’t survive these year end results. Very average. Should have dealt with Chiquito and F&B years ago. We still don’t know how much these two dog brands lose each year.
The TU was sadly a reflection of the naivety of this management team. Trying to hide the margin range and q4 organic revenue. Never a good idea. 30% in two days. What a flogging. Better to come clean but that is not the MO for this management team.
I said two months ago they bought way too much stock and it was criminal not putting pricing through. That has killed margin.
They still have way too much stock - the discounts on MP website are eye watering which is damaging the brand.
It’s been a litany of mistake. I do feel for the lse holders. I hope tonight is not another excruciating sleepless one.
There is nothing I’m reading on a macro level or micro level that suggests q4 will not be a continuation of q3. This business has way too much stock and they made a catastrophic decision 10 months ago to not pass on price. I’ve been on the MP website this morning - 60% off on everything. It’s devaluing the brand into some sort pound shop website.
I do feel however for all the lse holders who have gone through a excruciating 18 months. I hope the company can turn it around.
What do want to see? Margin down 550bps because they didn’t price properly and took a mad decision not to pass it on. Absolutely mental. Cash flow a disgrace because they bought too much stock - rookie error. The cfo has to go. They need New MDs for the sectors. And a supply chain director. Allen should be doing those changes not ****ing about with neds.
Just to be clear. They have no cash. They have net debt of 230m. The rns is severely misleading saying they have cash of 265m. If I take out a loan and then go round saying I have cash whilst conveniently ignoring the loan - what would you think
Yes truly incredible sp28. I can’t believe how unlucky you have been on this one. I did raise some concerns about a year ago on this. Now I can see I was wrong. The holders have just been unlucky. Ridiculous sp atm and I hope it turns around.
Goldenyears don’t bother arguing with them. They are beyond help.
These balance sheet arguments are some of the funniest things I’ve read and provides a real insight into the intellect of some of the ‘investors’ on this site. Wow just wow.
HH I’m not a fan of exceptionals and I’m certainly not a fan of excluding your rent from your quoted ebitda % which to me is plain and simply wrong and borderline misleading. No one can argue with that. How can you quote an ebitda margin but exclude your rent costs because of ifrs16. It’s wrong and shouldn’t be allowed.
I’ve read all the analysts reports. Most have ingenuity in at 35% ebitda margin going fwd. this 60% is a nonsense and makes no logical sense when you look at the maths for the group
But Jesus hang me because I’ve raised a question on the ingenuity margin. HOW DARE I! TROLL! PAID DE RAMPER!!! Let’s post a link to his advfn profile instead of replying with why we think it’s 60%. Hey ste2000?
Hosai. There is no point growing if the margin isn’t improving or even worse declining. Them saying they won’t pass on price for me is the wrong strategy. we are expecting to put 4/5% on wages alone this year. You can’t absorb that into margin. You have to pass it on. It’s a race to the bottom otherwise.
Yes you win market share but your margin goes down the toilet. Do we really think margin will go up 500bps in a year. That would be one hell of a turnaround. I guess those that are in think that is possible. I’m more sceptical. Doesn’t make me a troll. But thanks for the answer. You have done some research before investing.
Ste2000 aka Kim Jung un I see won’t answer. No posts are allowed which question the messiah Matt moulding as far Ste2000 is concerned.
Ste you are the troll. I’ve asked you a question about your information and you are refusing to answer because you don’t like the answer.
I will ask again for the 3rd and final time (I don’t expect an answer) but here goes.
YOU said ingenuity will do 120 m at 60% ebitda.
Matt Moulding (ceo) has said the group ebitda will be below 6% this year.
By my workings that means the existing business ebitda margin will be 3%.
Is this right Ste yes or no?
In fact ste. You’ve just said yourself ingenuity will be 120m at 60%. Yet Matt has said group ebitda margin will be below 6% this year. So on that basis the rest of the group will be below 3% margin. FACT Ste. That’s not trolling. That’s a fact using your own information. You should read a post and not just call it trolling because of the posters name. This is a board for discussion not a monopoy for good news only. That last time I checked Ste this is the UK not North Korea. If you want only good posts please move there.
Ste where’s the trolling in this post. Please explain.
SP - if ingenuity is going to do 115m @ 60% that’s 70m of ebitda. The group margin they tell us will fall this year to just under 6%. So on fy22 revenue of let’s say 3bn that’s ebitda of 170m. that means the rest of the group is making 100m ebitda on 2.9 bn revenue which is 3% margin. That can’t be right. You are saying the underlying and vast vast majority of business has a margin of 3%? That is worse than a high street b and m retailer.
SP - if ingenuity is going to do 115m @ 60% that’s 70m of ebitda. The group margin they tell us will fall this year to just under 6%. So on fy22 revenue of let’s say 3bn that’s ebitda of 170m. that means the rest of the group is making 100m ebitda on 2.9 bn revenue which is 3% margin. That can’t be right. You are saying the underlying and vast vast majority of business has a margin of 3%? That is worse than a high street b and m retailer.
What I don’t get is, if it is staff related they must have known this earlier than the day before release. It’s nearly two weeks now so on that basis there must have been loads of work left. PwC are not that incompetent - you don't get to the day before sign off and suddenly realise you have over 2 weeks of work left. It is completely inconceivable that has happened.
I initially thought this was Pwc just doing too much work on intangibles valuations (no one cares but the auditors go mad on this type of stuff) but now I am thinking it is something revenue recognition / cost accrual related.
These guys are only saying what we’ve been saying for months now. Get bumbling budden and that useless coo out and the rest of the stale management team out. Rebase the ED REM and get proper targets aligned to shareholder value. The brand needs a complete refresh. I’m happy to give a new management team a go otherwise yes it should be sold and the current lot should all be fired.