Member Info for MrRipley

"The Phase Ia dose escalation study is expected to complete in late 2022"
Yeah the study maybe complete in Q4, but the data compilation and analysis may take a few weeks extra!?”

Pretty sure complete means finish and study includes data. Or it would say data collection. The fact we’re 90plus days into C4 would suggest analysis is well underway.

So despite the recent drop in SP, still the IIs continue to hold. It would appear this is just impatient and nervous PIs. As I’ve said before…. I’d love to know where they’re going instead. Once news lands (assuming it’s positive) they can buy back in a lot higher. What is frustrating is the fact we’re going to get news on a much lower SP than I feel we should. A 50% rise takes us to 150p. So I feel the first few days will be filled with traders before the actual value is hopefully (I’m not holding my breath) slowly attributed to this share. To put it in perspective we hit 140 recently, and now we’re much closer to news, further into the trial, have full funding and a new site recruiting, we sit 29% lower than that year hi. Amazing really. Prove the platform is safe and works and then prove how well it works in 1b. This feels a lot like pre LFT news where we idled around 105 for months before rising to 295, except this time we aren’t after a short term market of a few billion but a platform wide market of around 50bn before TMAC is brought into the fore along with the rest of the business including our profit making LFT business in Launch. This price is impatience driven. And it just is what it is. But it’s still crazy that we aren’t on the rise into news. The worm must turn.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IjaK6MqxKNA

I think it’s as simple as data being collated

People are always less patient just before the event. My advice…. Have a few less coffees and just wait.

I don’t get that to be honest. Simply we’re beyond the time the last cohort took by over 50% so it’s a case of news being imminent. There’s no reason at all it can’t arrive any time this month.

A discussion reaches a logical conclusion. This on the other hand has now become flagrant bashing with great use of exclusion of large sections of information or knowledge. It started with RAH being called out and despite countering the questions, it continues down the exact same stream. It’s FUD. Nothing more

I didn’t say they don’t agree with you. But unless you are pouring over every bit of available information then you’re I’ll informed. If the market is going one therapeutic at a time then it is stupid.

A post ago it was Avacta and the market. Now it’s the market. Next you’ll just agree I’m right and you can relax then.

I also think you’re either stupid, or conniving. Just to be clear.

Hahahaha. That’s a real good effort.

Anyone else think Avacta is a **** investment? It seems to be the topic of the day. The new one appears to be about getting AVA6k to market. Just totally ignoring it’s the tech attached to it that’s doing the magic. Just….. totally….. ignoring…. that it’s the tech. If we conquer FAP then we unlock the platform. The new angle appears to be attack the chances of getting AVA6k sold eve if they manage something… and I think this has been mentioned…. That others, including Roche, haven’t. It’s about Pre|CISION as a platform and as part of TMAC. Not just one single drug. So if the market is viewing this as a play by play investment then it’s looking at it totally wrong. That’s a fact. If we’re successful then we’ve created a platform that’s incredibly valuable to someone much larger than we are. When the combustion engine was invented the change to the world wasn’t with each car sold, it was that cars would be possible. That’s Pre|CISION. We’re making that Great Leap Forward. So if you’re waiting for sales before buying in or being convinced then I think you’re approaching this totally wrong.

More buys than sells. MMs want us to pay for their Christmas Turkey. Hold onto your golden tickets yada yada yada.

“It makes for interesting reading when the cash raised which might have covered P2 went to diagnostics. I cant work out the play until more develops.”

I think they have a deal for 3996 based on data being up to scratch.

Bein, I’m all for discussion of pros and cons until it becomes an obvious attempt to dismiss the investment by traders. It’s the issue while we wait; many will want to discredit this and also will want to set themselves up for a new angle of negativity after news. That’s my opinion anyway, so it’s as valid as any of theirs. If it’s taken as me calling them bashers then they should consider what their opinion of RAHs calculations based on current information is, if not calling him a ramper and trying to discredit his efforts. So I’ll say it; I think they’re traders and bashers as they think RAH is the opposite. All fair in the terms of discussion though, don’t you agree?

Ahhh right so the best thing to do is to not try to figure it out at all and just do nothing.

Simply put people refuse to believe Avacta have cracked this. Roche couldn’t. Roche are still trying. If they manage it then people are dismissing the fact it’s a TO target and the chances that we stay independent are incredibly low so reaching market with AVA6000 becomes a mute point. Similarly if we can license out other candidates based on the platform being proven then that is a market in itself and a lot nearer term.

I do not understand the bad attitude some have towards RAHs attempts at valuation. If you don’t believe it then spend 100s of hours making a counter valuation with all things considered as he has. Or just appreciate someone making the attempt to value the so far unlocking of FAP activation and low side effect, extremely targeted chemo.

…. Despite the frustration, Avacta is now the top chat topic on LSE. There’s plainly a lot of eyes on this stock which is why I remain surprised the pressure isn’t building in the SP. I do feel dropping of the MSCI list (many loaded up and there were a lot of shares available (ignoring the potential that many moved between funds)) and IG moving to closing only has had quite an effect in stifling it’s progress

Anyway, with each passing day we move closer to news. I’m still hoping for a mid session RNS pre Christmas…..

Well people must be going to another share that has this kind of potential. I mean there’s loads…. Oh wait. There isn’t.
Then they must be saving there money. I mean with interest rates nowhere near as high as inflation… hang on that’s not right either.

Fact is Avacta need to talk. But if there’s a small delay (as pointed out it’s still Q4) then I’m not sure where money has more potential.

I think that’s a question for Bein. I think it’s possible, but not sure at what dose.

What is it about news being overdue that gives people the fear and leads to them selling? We already know P1a (safety) is a success or it would have stopped months ago. We can be fairly certain at 90 plus days since last DE, so approaching 50% longer than last DE took to complete that we won’t be seeing another DE, or I believe it would have happened by now IMO. So as each day passes, the chances of news increases. You’d think people would take and hold a position, or did last weeks drop give anyone who wanted to the opportunity to do so with the large overhang? Just seems odd to not hold now that news landing is more likely. Anyway, just my opinion.

Avacta said themselves MTD may not be found. Whatever dose they stop at isn’t necessarily MTD. Again Avacta advised multiple lower dosages of exquisitely targeted chemo may be preferable to a higher one with less doses. So you’re not just wrong in one way, but you’re managing to be wrong from a plethora of directions.