Member Info for MrRipley

I mean its pretty easy to do. I think I’m really getting to them now.

So, Wyn thinks that if we get great initial data that the market won’t react. We have a 200m mcap, the market share will be 5-10% PA of 1.5bn and rising due to the much higher doses of Dox increasing the market size. They’re aiming for 6times the dose so even if that market doubles it’s 3bn. So $150m P/A. The whole PreCision Pipeline is targeting a market worth $56.7bn p/a and the initial data as seen by AS is very encouraging. We will know (shortly ha) what this data is. So Wyn thinks that as the trial progresses well and we get multiple points of data over 2022 heading into 2023 that we will not be at any multiples of todays SP? And a takeover of 200-300p? We haven’t even been told what the ‘significant milestone’ payment from LG was yet which is part of a $400m deal. We don’t know how many LFTs have been sold, and we don’t know what the funding structure they have planned is. Wyn is once again trying to claim that this share is doomed, but still hangs around. How ****ing peculiar. And touk…. A dividend though. Dumb dumb dumb.

The taboo of a fund raise isn’t warranted if it comes attached to positive AVA6000 data and a plant to launch it to market. But as Myles pointed out last week it could also be a case that proof of concept may come with a partnership for the next candidate while AVA6000 generates income in 2023 as it goes to market. But who knows, there’s so many moving parts.

Exactly PL and Bein. I’m going to be quite brutal here and say if you think that we’re going to make serious revenue from the AffiDX LFT at this stage then you’re genuinely kidding yourself and you need to invite yourself to rejoin reality. There’s an awful lot going for this company, selling into a saturated market in a world with testing fatigue that’s dominated by corruption and Chinese tests, it isn’t going to happen. Id love to be proven wrong. We may sell a few hundred thousand over a year, maybe, but the Pandemic has proven Affimers as a diagnostic platform through the LFT sensitivity, Elisa and BAMS. It’s done it’s job in that regard but it isn’t the cash generator we all hoped for. This is a cancer therapeutics company with a diagnostics arm. The 20/80 split from the raise highlighted that.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NZHIxNQT4Tg

Is this the most recent presentation? It’s from 3 months ago. Let me have a look to see if I’m missing on here. Watch from 19 minutes for info on when we should receive data. Dose escalation targeted for the end of Q2. He says they should be able to provide the market with data between the end of Q4 and beginning of Q1 and that they’ll have a lot of data by then. So unless I’m missing a presentation.
All here should watch this. It explains the dosing of AVA6000, aiming for 6 times the dose which would plant 20 times the levels of Dox in the tumour compared to standard dox while Dox in heart tissue would just be starting to present itself vs a 1 for 1 with standard Dox. Incredible if it’s achieved in humans. Absolutely astonishing actually. As AS also says, it’ll prove the whole platform. Everyone here should really watch the entire presentation if they haven’t.

So yeah, hopefully any day this month.

It was meant to be end of Q4 beginning of Q1 but I believe it got pushed back to the beginning of Q2 but based on Als new tact for not getting our hopes up by being silent and the early IND filing for the US I’m thinking anytime between next week and the end of feb. So within 6 weeks.

Exactly MCB. My point was by this time next year we’ll be talking about how phase one A and B went and waiting to see if we’ve hit the jackpot in a few months time. Proof of concept for PreCision would wipe the floor with any past inflections due to the LFT

Great post Melville.

The thing with Avacta is we’re all in early doors here vs potential. We’re also in the middle of a very volatile stage of the companies development due to the LFT. This company is a minnow with some potentially big tech and if they pull all 3 IPs off it’s worth 10s of billions. If they don’t then it’s worthless. My case has always been if LG and Daewoong have expanded their deals and POINT have made a deal then who am I to argue with their opinion that this is great tech. It’s the same with the results of the mouse studies for AVA6000. If they can be replicated then what is that worth? Where we fall down it seems is diagnostics. Are there too many variables? Do we just not have the firepower right now to keep up with the shifting data? Is it maybe a case that AVA could in fact fund the diagnostics division at some point? If we were just diagnostics and AVA6000 wasn’t in clinic I’d have stepped away and kept a distant eye on it. But the fact that proof of concept for AVA6000 is within the next 12-18months, I don’t see a reason to throw the towel in. And then it just comes down to collecting all the available information and taking a palatable risk financially on whether you think that info points at failure or success. I’ve personally bet on success. So have many Institutional investors.

It does as well zoom. Surely coincidental. But I keep an eye out for that bit of hocus pocus too.

Off the Mcap sorry. Not value.

Volume is very low today and buys are only outweighed by sells by about 150k shares. Hardly seems enough to justify wiping 4-5% of the companies value for £120k worth of shares.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Jupiter were doubling down and extending their short today looking at the price action.

Don’t give him the time of day. The last 3 reply’s on that thread were him. He’s just after attention.

Here’s one for the Chartists. It’s hocus pocus. And if you think it’s better than researching a company and taking or not taking a position based on that then you’re wrong. Not only that but you’re lazy. It takes an infinite amount more work to research and understand a company and in this case, it’s target markets and potential than to look for patterns in the stars.

https://rogermontgomery.com/is-technical-analysis-mere-hocus-pocus/

The only way you got out at 95p on the bell is if you has 6 shares. Stop talking ****.

I’m not buying that Ophidian.

I do expect more SP shenanigans though. For instance the bid just dropped on a 12k sale but it came right after a 24k buy.

Anyway. I’m off work injured. Time to get the laptop out and pretend I’m working.

Laters haters.

iPad they added a lot more than 3 times.

7th July 0.52 (150-160)
12th august 0.63
20th august 0.75
2nd November 0.84
22nd December 0.94

The lowest was 105. Half have been 120 or lower. The rest was the initial open. So yeah you’re probably right around the 130 mark.

Changing the antibody and then evaluating the test in Spain again wouldn’t need any involvement from Porton Down at all. Desktop reviews aren’t actually happening it seems so any involvement from the UKGov is pretty much negligible. Whether we sell LFTs in any great numbers has been largely swiped from the SP. It’s now very much a case of waiting for initial data which is due very soon from AVA6000 trials, next PreCision Candidate, Jupiter closing and seeing what the plan is if AS decides to grace us with an actual interview and some kind of outline plan for the year. It’s all very much a wait and see situation.

Can’t argue about the timing disease. I imagine AS gets few invites to weddings “speak now or forever hold you peace…..” Al…. “We’ll actually, on the stag do….” No Al nooooo!

…. Will Jupiter follow……they need to buy 2,387,600 or so shares to close their short. Hopefully shareholders don’t let theirs go on the cheap to let these rats back in too easily. Their average is circa 1.15 so they do have a cushion but that will start to erode as they create buying pressure trying to close.