RE: Bounce25 Sep 2020 12:12
You forgot scenario C:
It's Oct-Feb, winter flu season. Ship sets sail with 1500 pax on board
Day 2 - 5 people exhibit symptoms including fever, headache, fatigue, cough and sore throat. All 5 are duly isolated "just in case" and await testing. They miss the excursion they had booked that set off at 9am and are refused permission to go ashore for 2 hours whilst tests are done. They are eventually cleared but now will have to just potter around the port themselves.
Day 4 - 15 more people have shown similar symptoms and so are all isolated in their cabins. Could be COVID, could just be cold or Flu. No-one knows until tests completed. More disruptions.
Day 8 - Over 40 people are now coughing and showing similar symptoms. All have to be quarantined to cabin and await testing. On approach to the current port the Captain is duly bound to inform port authority of the number of sick people on-board. The port refuses entry to the ship until all sick passengers have been fully tested and cleared. (It only took ONE such passenger earlier this year to see a ship refused entry in Italy). 1500 passengers are now all irritated and waiting to go ashore. Lots of excursions have now gone awry, timescales shot etc. Hours pass whilst the sick are tested and whilst the port authorities and perhaps local doctors come on board to confirm.
You can progress the scenario forward yourselves. Cases of Flu or equivalent will be widely prevalent and will spread around the ship like wild fire as they always do. The cruise will be beset with constant interruptions, quarantines, delays and so on. All because the symptoms of cold and Flu are similar to COVID.
What that then leads to is an ethos of "keeping schtuum". Those with symptoms will realise that it's best to just keep them to yourself as much as possible. To NOT report to medical bay, not worry about fever and coughs and to try your best to supress it all so no-one notices. Maybe forego dinner in the restaurant and pop up to the buffet instead. Stay on your balcony by day rather than wander around the ship etc.
What then happens is one or more of those such people actually DO have COVID but think it's just Flu or cold and by not reporting their symptoms they have now spread COVID around the ship ensuring that more and more cases will appear over the coming days. Within no time you're quickly into your Scenario B again, aka Diamond Princess Death Ship. Everyone locked up in cabins, holidays ruined, dumped off in port waiting to be flown home etc.
In the end nothing is going to change until and unless the world health authorities downgrade the virus to little more than Flu and/or do NOT require cruise lines to quarantine all passengers when there are cases on-board. We seem to be a long way from that point
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