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Important to log these institutional buys for any PI who would like to buy, we would aim to buy under 68p on PI fluctuations designed to make money for the MM by creating volume:
16-Sep-19 17:13:57 68.168p 105009 Buy* 67.50 68.00 71.58k O
16-Sep-19 17:13:41 68.168p 88,223 Buy* 67.50 68.00 60.14k O
16-Sep-19 16:53:32 68.196p 95,237 Buy* 67.50 68.00 64.95k O
Société Générale and BOA are selling, we should see who is buying them in the coming week(s). If BlackRock is seen to be closing their short in full this has much higher to go, but I suspect they are simply shorting on stocks earning money in GBP as leverage for their long positions. Must not forget Woody still holds but I am sure and hope even a **** poor fund manager like him can see fair value at 150p-200p.
seaside53, most equities move together, good to have some cash/bonds/gold to buy on the dips. I could not believe HUR was down considering the oil price and you may have recovered some already as it appears to be ending well. Big fan of both stocks. Had some great times following HUR. Best of British.
>> Out for now - 45% in 4 weeks happy with that! <<
Nice one but remember the second most shorted stock Kier Group plc is up over 100% from recent lows. Stocks go up for good reasons, holding some for the long run should pay off here especially because there is not many actually buying at those low prices we did wanting to sell.... only shorts driving the SP down.
>> I think one of the main problems here is the amount of debt,
jedclampit, The fact is the debt (due to Saga and private equity days) was the same if not more when The AA was over 400p requires you to look into this in more detail. Revenues have remained largely flat over the decade. Free cash flow can easily support debt (and arguably dividends). Lack of growth and overall poor sentiment toward UK PLC whose revenues are in GBP made it target for shorters.
jedclampit, your post and today's open at 68p screams desperation of stock from the market or shorts closing. These are the facts this morning and tomorrow may tell another story.
Hi SYFreshPrince. On the 24th September, the interim results for the six months ended 31 July 2019 will be announced. There is no expected news other than a continuation of the goals set out by the company to grow in the long term by spending money on front line staff, technology innovations and partnerships (see the share price drop as the markets don't believe this or are short-sighted - I just dunno why the SP has fallen for sure?). So don't necessarily expect gains in EBITDA but an increase in membership numbers may be the key to share price growth now because it indicates longer-term growth. Someone did mention the "Smart" product has gone live and I can see this doing well in B2B and I would guess they are using the public as gunnie pigs (but we shall see!). Also progress on Admiral deal and evidence of continuous growth in insurance is quite exciting so the previous chief was right to not sell the insurance business (see the news about the BOD physical punch up). Never a dull moment for what is an essentially an insurance company!
Good luck with your oil trading, I am only bullish on Hurricane Energy PLC since IPO years ago now (got in at sub 20p) because of the lower cost of extraction they will be an M&A target, most other oil companies will end up with stranded assets so be very careful. For the past few years, I am not invested in oil.
@Morbox, I agree BlackRock is key. REported on the 11th Engadine Partners increased their position while Ardevora Asset Management and Odey Asset Management decreased.
@J99MES I agree potentially plenty of growth if not next week then in time. Let's not forget Kier went up 100% from lows and they are the 2nd most shorted stock so 92p is reasonable resistance. But as I am long term investors I am here for 150p all the way to 500p IF they managed to pay off the debt that's what The AA is worth and yes I plan to live a long time to see debt repayment done!
Sub 50p buys was on very low volume so there will not be many investors buying at the very lows wanting to sell, so all eyes are on the institutional buyers and shorters. With so many positives in the last report, and with the market wanting growth I am sure Breakwell will continue to deliver to build value for the long run.
I am not a trader like Banker but for those interested in his approach as I am on the sidelines, this is what Banker could be doing according to: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp
* = Bankers current position IMO
1. Identify the Candidate
Find stocks that have built strong support or resistance levels and watch them. Remember, the stronger the support or resistance, the better the outcome. Make sure you understand this when you shop for stocks.
2. Wait for the Breakout
Finding a good candidate does not mean a trade should be taken prematurely. Wait patiently for the stock price to make its move. To be sure the breakout will hold, on the day the stock price trades outside its support or resistance level, wait until near the end of the trading day to make your move*. (For more on this, see Patience Is a Trader's Virtue.)
3. Set a Reasonable Objective
If you are going to take a trade, set an expectation of where it is going. If you don't, you won't know where to exit the trade. This can be done by calculating an average move the stock makes or measuring the distance between support and resistance (especially when trading price patterns).
4. Allow the Stock to Retest
This is the most critical step. When a stock price breaks a resistance level, old resistance becomes new support. When a stock breaks a support level, old support becomes new resistance. In the majority of your trades, the stock will test the level it has broken after the first couple of days. Prepare for it.
More steps on: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp
Volume/megabucks trading for the first time in a while:
10-Sep-19 13:32:40 57.85 3,505,540 Sell* 58.25 58.40 £2m
10-Sep-19 13:32:37 57.976 3,505,540 Sell* 58.25 58.40 £2m
10-Sep-19 13:27:00 57.85 3,505,540 Sell* 58.25 58.40 £2m
Could be significant. Reported on 3rd Sep 2019, BlackRock reduced 0.02% but still maintain a staggering 5.89% that should they wish so will require a careful exit. Engadine Partners LLP increased its small short position that I have a feeling will be a mistake.
Good luck with your trade Rou123, I hope you keep some for the long run as this is a good brand looking to reverse the decline in membership and grow earnings. There is better volume during the day today and not just after hours. Again any PI should have the opportunity to buy under 56p where these larger trades are happening.
Banker and Jed, while I think no one can predict short term share price fluctuations there is a chance the upside is much greater than 60p+, simply look at the number one shorted stock KIER from a low of 62p to a massive 116p today in 1 month and it remains shorted at 11.6%. https://shorttracker.co.uk/
But I remind myself to keep my feet on the ground as the AA have been implementing a longer-term strategy "While additional growth will result in a short-term negative impact on EBITDA due to marketing acquisition costs, it will help deliver long-term growth. " https://www.theaaplc.com/~/media/Files/A/AA-Plc-V2/results-presentations/2019/annual-report-and-accounts-2019.pdf
On the Woody front, he has stabilised his income portfolio during suspension by adding high yielding dividend-paying stocks such as BT to his portfolio - this could indicate that he will not be re-opening his fund for his investors this year and will continue to pay investors an income. There is more liquidity in these stocks, I do not think there is the liquidity in AA plc to sell any more at this year. For discussion on BT type stocks being a value trap please discuss this on the BT forum and investors running for the door when his fund re-opens please discuss int he Woody trust forum.
29-Aug-19
55.47p
665,838
£369.34k
28-Aug-19
55.177p
408,425
£225.36k
28-Aug-19
55.177p
596,808
329.30k
Always aim to buy at or under these prices.
Here is a list of the top 10 holders (long):
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=AA.:LSE
Parvus Asset Management Europe is a debt specialist and a strong supporter (24.84%) and should help counter arguments over debt sustainability.
There are potentially big gains to be had in a recovery play for investors willing to hold this for a couple of years and presuming the shorters know something we don't. The risk-reward ratio is off the scale. The short attack on AIM-listed Burford Capital Limited last week is an interesting case pointing to the accounts of which AIM accountancy practice is nowhere near what the AA go through with all the regulation of Insurance and FCA, CMA etc... The AIM attack on AA PLC surely must be to do with something else than the inability to pay debt and the shorting began well before Woodford. I had always suspected it was to do with growth hence my buying at 50p and 56p. Good to see the large trades are on the side of 57-58p. Good luck holders.
Good to see the successful french company Societe Generale Group continue to add to their holdings up 0.39% to 6.02% after the last trading update. The trading update had resulted in a total reduction of reported shorts mainly attributed to Engadine Partners LLP who by 13th Aug 2019 reduced from 1.13% to 1.09%. I would expect more shorts to closed by 24 September where reversal is possible. With global markets in turmoil, the AA continues to hold up. Yes, Woodford still holds 6.93% but it appears, for now, they had stopped selling this. Woody also managers St James Place and we can presume they are out.
I am not an expert on this one but appears cost-cutting and job reductions are integral to the plan. This is never really a good sign but possibly one that is needed for the company, in a multi-year cycle before they start putting money back to invest where it is needed in order to generate growth. Therefore the dividend looks very attractive to both investors and the company looking for a reset (ie.e dividend cut) in order to grow. Another high debted company ahead in this cycle are The AA, I am seeing similarities.
Large trades out of hours at 58p. The down day today on the FTSE for those tea leaf readers is forming a "cup and handle" so I have added.