The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I actually view the vaccine as positive news for SNG.
The more the vaccines show to be effective the more the reliance on them to solve the lockdown impacts on the economy. However, no vaccine is 100% effective and this forces the government to talk about acceptable rates of CV19 deaths - just as with flu, etc.
This doesn’t mean that those individuals who cannot/ will not / do not get protection from the virus are just left to fight for themselves, the opposite in fact. It drives healthcare systems to explore therapeutics that will enable life for the majority to continue as normal without the minority overwhelmingly healthcare systems.
We already know that respiratory conditions hammer healthcare systems worldwide. SNG has a big place moving forward and I am as confident as ever. This isn’t about is or isn’t there a market, it is simply about the success rate of the P3 trials. The market is there and always will be.
Neutronic and Sujood, Thank you.
At least it confirms what I thought, that we just don't know yet! It was frustrating me that I was failing to calculate any sort of target market cap and thus be able to get a strategy in mind.
It is easy to see how the company is worth more than current market cap if the various development lines come to fruition but difficult to make any forecasts. That explains the lack of recent broker views too I guess.
Thanks all - I look forward to the TU (and the reaction from todays S/S RNS!)
Evening all,
Does anyone have any links to either previous well thought out posts or research articles to help with market cap forecasting.
I’m genuinely struggling to try and calculate based on what I’ve found.
Even if I ignore everything else AVCT is developing except the LFT market I still can’t get a finger on anything.
Demand is huge and probably in the region of a 14-20 million per week from the U.K., of which AVCT could perhaps contribute to 2-4 million per week? Is this accurate, or is there better estimates?
Profit per test? I would guess at around £1 per test - again, any thoughts from anyone on this?
Will they license further to other manufacturers to sell to global market?
I’d really appreciate any thoughts or links people would be happy to share.
Agreed on cost being a crap excuse. It would have cost £104Bn to buy a single course of SNG001 for every adult in the country at £2000 a pop.
Factor in the discounts if buying huge amounts and then offset against the damage to economy, healthcare system, etc.
Plus the fact that not everyone would need as most are asymptomatic, etc. So could stockpile.
I think you would find it’s pretty reasonable and cost would be less of a factor.
I feel that, for once, this is good news for the timeline.
AVCT wouldn’t sacrifice slices of the profit to get CE marking 6 weeks earlier than otherwise expected unless they had a massive deadline to hit.
They expect to be ISO13485 accredited by end of March 21 and could award their CE marking themselves at this point. However, they have entered into a partnership to have CE a matter of weeks earlier.
What has caused the ISO delay so far, could be many reasons from issue with their own processes through to just not enough time to complete the huge amount of work required to become ISO13485 accredited.
Beyond the obvious plus of being involved with Mologic, I think this provides additional ‘between the lines’ news as well.
My instinct is that while this is positive news it won’t receive a positive market reaction. I think (just my view) the market is expecting / needing test order news and more news of development / clinical validation isn’t received well.
That said, I’d love a positive reaction as I have plenty in the pot here (relative to my whole PF)!
I think we can take a positive early view on the U.K. home trial from this RNS. RM and the team obviously have confidence in their early analysis of the U.K. Ph2 home trial data to be going into another Ph2 to 3 home trial in the USA.
Obviously the RNS is great news on the USA front but I also believe this provides additional positive news for the, yet to be released, data from the U.K. home trial.
What a great start to the week. I hope the share price reflects today!
If you mean what does this equate then?
100,000 treatments per months * £2000 = £200,000,000 per month revenue
£200m * 12 months = £2,400,000,000 (£2.4Bn) Revenue per year.
Profit per year?
75% Margin = £1.8Bn (Somewhere around here probably most likely for pharma)
50% Margin = £1.2Bn
25% Margin = £600M
Market Cap? What (Forward?)P/E to use? With no multiplier the share price is £9 per share... So pick your multiplier.
Things to alter this? Bulk buy treatment costs? Margin lower than pharma approx norm, buy out, Stockpiling could increase the P/E as the demand becomes 'beyond COVID', etc
Parsley - comparing share price offers no insight without also comparing total shares in circulation. Or, to keep it simpler, just use Market Cap.
All share price forecasts are based on a forecast market cap.
Therefore, if we look at the SNG vs Pfizer share price we can see that even if SNG share price reach £50 it would only be worth 4.8% of Pfizer. (To add, I’ve had a decent amount of drink so may have missed a zero somewhere!)
Just for awareness of another British test.
From the sounds of the article they are quite far behind us with progress but it is a saliva LFT that uses the spike protein to bind with.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-british-inventors-unveil-saliva-swab-test-that-returns-result-in-15-minutes-12166405
"We need to take another look, because we're taking a battering regarding these cr*p Chinese tests we've been ordering".
That is exactly what they wrote in the main paragraph though
Just, from my experience with public sector documents, the last paragraph suggests to me they are considering reducing the pillar somewhat. Hey, I hope I am wrong but we should look for positive and negative outcomes of all evidence. Otherwise we will just produce a echo chamber of AVCT support on here.
Regardless of the U.K. market, I still believe AVCT have more than enough of a market outside U.K.
Just my view and, I’m heavily underwater on this one but that doesn’t fill me with confidence for the U.K. Govt. the sort of language in the last paragraph is about the least committed language they could have possibly used.
That said, even without U.K. Gov I still believe the European and global market is more than enough for AVCT.