Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The British oil company Savannah Energy is reacting to N’Djamena’s accusations over the Exxon Mobil file, while Chad is normalizing its relations with Cameroon.
https://euro.dayfr.com/trends/amp/157796
‘The Minister of Finance went further by saying that “Savannah has no money, she could not raise the money to give it to Esso, who gave her her shares on credit”, before continue “I think that Savannah tried to corrupt people in Chad and in other countries, and it was known”, declared Tahir Hamid Nguilin in front of the transitional council acting as parliament.’
Corrupt these people ?
That’s rich coming from Chad. lol.
TIL - Bowleven expect transaction to complete in June 2023.
https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/press/Bowleven-Interim-results-announcement-30-March-2023-v9-FINAL_0.pdf
Cameroon benefits tremendously from its oil and gas reserves. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Cameroon’s petroleum production was 70,000 barrels a day in 2019 and 67,000 barrels a day in 2020. Cameroon has natural gas reserves estimated to be 4.8 billion cubic feet. Much of this gas remains undeveloped. In the meantime, Cameroon continues to concentrate on upstream and downstream activities. Downstream, the country plans to refurbish the national oil refinery, SONARA, although the facility suffered a devastating fire of an unknown cause in June 2019. There are opportunities in storage, pipelines, and gas-to-electricity power stations.
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/cameroon-oil-and-gas
Savannah Energy Plc, the British independent energy company, says it is seeking to continue to expand in Cameroon and review other potential investment opportunities in the country’s energy and sector.
https://independent.ng/savannah-energy-mulls-expansion-of-operations-in-cameroon/
Another smart move from Zephyr who have secured significantly more oil hedged than before and at prices that are at a premium to the market. This is extremely beneficial to the company and is of course crucial to the funding of the development at the Paradox Basin currently under way.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/05/oil-price-iog-chariot-zephyr-arrow-sdx-longboat-hurricane-ptal-eme-angus-and-finally/
I would like to think and hope that the pipeline would be protected as things deteriorate in Sudan. As you say oil is both Sudan and SS’s main revenue earner and without it both countries would suffer greatly.
My concern is that if the two generals continue this conflict and a deep civil war ensues then the pipeline might become a target for which ever side felt they were perhaps losing the upper hand. It’s been targeted in the past and it might get damaged again in order to inflict maximum damage to the country / economy.
At the end of the day nobody knows what is going to happen. We can only hope that the conflict settles down in the coming weeks and months prior to the SS oil conference otherwise it could be a bit of a damp squib.
I certainly wouldn’t like to be in AK’s shoes at the present time. A lot on his plate at the moment.
Fingers crossed for a positive outcome.
‘If you wish to comment on my posts at least read them carefully.’
Perhaps you should try reading your own posts more carefully before casting aspersions and you will discover your posts differ. You failed to mention the purchase of extra shares in later years in the post I was referring to.
Feel free to apologise…your choice.
I don’t expect one so matter closed.
‘Another smart move I made in I think 2017 was to remove most of my original stake leaving largely free shares to run the long term.’
So you spend all day, everyday posting constantly defending your investment which you now claim you have a free carry in.
Yeah right.
Interesting article but nothing new.
It’s too long to post but here’s an extract…
‘The Chad and South Sudan issues – notwithstanding the vagaries of dealing with Cameroonian, Nigerien and Nigerian politicians – puts Savannah in the ‘high risk’ category. If things come off for Savannah, the junior could become a significant energy operator and the valuation of the company – around GBP340m before suspension – should be massively increased when the company eventually comes back to market post-suspension. However, there are a lot of spinning plates in this game of pan-African cosmic juggling and dropping one could be a very costly mistake for both Savannah’s management and shareholders.’
https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/savannah-stuck-in-limbo-in-chad-and-south-sudan/
I hope it’s all come out and makes sense. Sometimes copy and paste isn’t 100% accurate and numbers and letters get left out, apologies for long post but I know some folk don’t have access to broker notes so it’s for their benefit.
I’ve not read through it yet it see if it makes sense , if not let me know and I’ll repost that bit again.
Part 9
Risked NAV of 45p/share
We have revisited our Risked NAV estimate (see Fig. 1), which reduces from 80p/share to 45p/share. Intuitively, we believe that this is consistent with Savannah's reduced earnings power post-Chad, and the 35p/share that we had been estimating prior to announcement of the Chad-Cam deal in FY21A (noting that the Cameroon portion of the pipeline has been retained). In addition, our revised Risked NAV estimate would place Savannah on an FY23F EV/FFO ratio of 5x, which feels about right to us.
Key changes reflect the loss of Chad upstream and midstream, Savannah's lower ownership interest in the Cameroon section of the pipeline, the value implied to this by the agreed disposal of 10% of COTCo and reported net debt. Whilst acknowledging the potential recognition and enforceability issues associated with any arbitration award, we also include 6p/share (risked) to reflect the possibility of a substantial settlement in Savannah's favour in due course.
As with our financial forecasts, we would expect South Sudan to have a material impact on our valuation following forthcoming publication of the AIM Admission Document. In the meantime, and given the shares' ongoing suspension, our longstanding Buy recommendation remains under review. Our detailed financial models are available to institutional clients upon request.