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Hi Doubler I saw your posts but didnt realise you made the same assumptions as me..I think you and somekindofnut make great points, its not the size of the boat, its the motion of the ocean and I hope BP want to get to the fpf1. Its capable if handling 54000bopd inc gas and is state of the art with a pipeline connection. Thats half BP's stated north sea wished for increase. IMO
So there has been murmurs that BP wont sell iae certain accumulations within reach of Ithacas Greater Stella Area. If BP dont have plans for these fields, why wont they sell? Could it be possible they want to keep them and buy IAE once GSA is online and risk is removed? They are definitely in the market for cheap production. Any thoughts?
We'll see!!
Hey bigbench, I've let go of all the negativity from last year and dont worry about other posters much anymore, but I'm curious what your get out price for IAE is? As the sp goes up, you've been posting more frequently, maybe I'm seeing something that's not there. But when we do announce first oil I reckon the SP will step change up. Could even hit 140p pretty quickly.
I too hope news comes next week. Its about time, but they said feb, so im not getting my hopes up. Its nice to see the sp moving up. One thing I would like to point out is that nobody here is really negative on Ithaca. There are a couple of niggles about delays etc, but everyone commenting on this bb seems to be pro ithaca. A good thing indeed. It seems other contributors also dont appreciate repetitiveness, but I've learned everyone is welcome to write what they like as long as they stay in the rules. This is a good bb as others have pointed out and im grateful for the positive chat. Lets not confuse fact with fiction though. Posters stating they have information that an RNS is due next week, might be blurring the lines, or are they privi to insider information? Who knows? All in my opinion. ALB
Good points Vlad/Keith, Am I right in thinking that fracking wells deplete pretty quickly so they have a shorter production life and require more wells to be drilled? So hopefully not as many players will re-enter the market. I also hope that wide scale dracking doesnt take off in the UK and other countries. With regards to Iran, they have become more moderate since Rouhani came in and I think they are less of a threat, which is a positive, but a deals a deal and if inspectors aren't given free rain then bring back the sanctions. Doubt it will happen though, but it would instantly take a few million barrels away from dailly global oil production.
No worries Londoner, I wasn't very clear in my post, but yes IAE makes sense. Apart from the GSA delays people forget how well run they are. I would like a Take Over approach sooner rather than later to get the sp really going, but thats just down to my lack of patience. All the best
Apologies for spelling/grammer
Check out stocksluuts post at 18.39. That shows the increased production. You'll have to copy and paste. And I believe it to be a reputable website. I cant pinpoint where I heard USA couldnt ramp up quick, maybe it was to do with the rig count or the majority of fraccas needing funding which banks will be reluctant to do. I hadnt given much thought to shut in wells. We'll see. Trump will have an impact too. Which way will he go. Libya as mentioned. What did Iraq say they were going to do? If Russia stays on plan then world oil price will improve. Them plus the big 3 opec players. My take on the US is they supply themselves but dont export much so althpugh the rest of the world loses out on thier market at leadt chinas preduction has/is dropping, yet demand is gping up. Opinions greatly recieved.
Who said amrrica couldnt ramp up production quickly?? 500,000bopd from the frackers in 5 months!! They could undermine the Opec/russian cuts, but the question is if anyone could answer it is how much more can the US add to dailly output?
Im thinking it'll be the 14th, 15th or 16th of Feb for the first oil announcement.
Thats a strong claim bigbench about oil flowing 1st week of feb and is mis leading. You do not know this and will lead others to think this is a fact which it is not. You might get lucky and they announce first oil during this time, but I doubt it.
Stockslu* has a point and he's welcome to his view. We've been talking about the possibility of a delay for a while so this latest delay should not come as a surprise to anyone. But they say february first oil now with no specific date. Dont get carried away and assume it will be the 1st of the month or even early feb. Blind ramping won't do any favours. IAE will stick to this latest schedule and get us first oil in February. We can only guess when, but they have the whole 28 days of feb to do it. They're a great co, and managed very well especially from a financial point of view. The hedging saved us in January 2016 when poo was so low. Other co's with our debt pile and no hedging could/would have gone under. Good times ahead.
Hate to say I told you so about this recent delay......but IMO it will be the last delay before start up. So Mr Thomas's latest start date should be good. Im very happy about the reduced opex. This will improve the SP outlook even further. Another psychological milestone achieved in getting under the $600m debt level too. And they still hope to get 22000 boed average this year. Very positive I think.
No worries doubler, Weberone, can you answer my last question? Cheers
Ha, yes doubler, im hactastic. Is the 23rd an unofficial rumour on the down low or has anything been printed to that effect. 23rd seems too far away for IAE not to issue an rns given thier own stated timelines, but who knows.
Another day closer to first oil!
Good posts guys. I agree with what a lot of you are saying. But for me "early january" is ambiguous so that could still be next week and then they wont issue an rns at the very time they press the go button. More they will prob wait a few days to see how its going then make an announcement. Either this or at some point in next 10 days they would have to explain if there is going to be another delay. We just dont know yet. Second guessing and needless ramping wont help. IMO But when we do finally get the news of successful startup and safely know oil volumes are as expected, the sp will go a fair bit higher
well sp was up when I started writing anyway :(
Couple of things to think about: - 1. It's only the start of January, IAE said upto six weeks, so give them a chance, they don't need to announce anything yet IMO 2. Knowing a few engineers working for very big firms, in both civil, structural engineering and Oil & Gas. (don't know anyone personally at petrofac, but as soon as the actual engineers realise there is any kind of slippage to the schedule they report to their managers and then clients. From what I've been told it is then upto the client to inform their shareholders and face the anger and any SP fallout. A lot of the time they simply use the engineering firm as the baddie and quite often the engineering firm goes along with this(albeit grudgingly, especially if there is more potential work available). I am not saying this is the relationship IAE have with Petrofac, but I would be amazed if it comes out of the blue to IAE about delays. 3. SP is up today. Happy days