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You were spot on!
I was always taught to never catch a falling knife. In the absence of any forthcoming positive news, I can't see any reason why the stock would go up. Alternatively, if the company were honest and transparent and released production data, gas content data, gas composition data, permeability, and other basic reservoir data, it seems to me they are not being honest with the shareholders. If these coal seams are truly the "the best coal seams" TG has ever seen, what is the hesitancy? Their competitor, Sekaname, sold them the lease so they already know the geologic and reservoir properties of the lease. Perhaps this is why they hived off these leases and went we elsewhere?
What? I ignored dewatering??? I believe I gave a concise explanation of the factors controlling dewatering and highlighted the importance of it for Tlou's potential success (or failure). If it takes Tlou 2 years to dewater wells, then we are well and truly effed. As I have said before, if Tlou would just release basic geologic and reservoir data, we could all make educated and informed choices as to the merits of Tlou's project and not just speculate endlessly as you do Mr. Smith.
The rate at which a well can be dewatered and gas flow initiated is dependent on a number of factors including permeability, well spacing, gas saturation, and water saturation -- none of which have been disclosed by Tlou. Without knowing this very basic information it is impossible to determine how long it will take to dewater and produce a well. As you rightly point out, it could be anywhere from a few months to a few years. If it is the later, then they better get busy putting those wells on production so they can have gas to feed their power plant after the PPA has been signed. Otherwise, we'll have erected poles and wires with no gas to fire the gen set and we'll be delayed another few years...
I'm not sure why you have brought the Drunkard's Wash field into the argument as the coal seams and geologic setting are nothing like the coal seams in southern Africa. Also, I find it curious that you have provided a response with lots of hard data from Drunkard's Wash when all
Hmmmm, Directors buying on inside knowledge that they won't release to the public??? Isn't this prohibited???
Wow, lots of conviction buys on the ASX...
The entire fate of Tlou rests on the productivity of their wells; getting a PPA is meaningless unless the wells can deliver. By Tlou's own admission the wells have yet to achieve a commercial rate of production (which begs the question how SRK were able to ascribe the reserves they have to Tlou). The production graph they have released to the public and shareholders is useless without values for the X and Y axes. Anyone who says differently is either ignorant of CBM production or a shill for the company; I don't want to hear the crap that it is "company confidential" or whatever. Tlou owns the leases, so it doesn't matter what anyone else in the region is doing. TG wasn't shy about putting out REAL numbers when he was promoting his Oz projects, so why won't he divulge what is going on the with the "best coal seams" he has ever seen?
The coal seams in the region tend to be undersaturarated with respect to gas and have high CO2 and nitrogen. Could TG kindly release the results of the gas chromotherapy and the gas content and isotherm work?
I would happily buy 1 million shares of Tlou if they would just release some very fundamental and basic data that all E&P firms release (provided it's favorable).
Why on earth would it be called wet gas? Wet gas refers to natural gas with higher end hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, butane, etc., none of which are present in appreciable quantities in CBM gas in Botswana.
The Orapa tender is geared towards Karoo Sustainable Energy, a group that has run the power station for several years.
Well Whizzer, you got your wish and TG has put out some more useless drivel. PPA negotiations to BEGIN in January (weren't we told they were underway?) which means 3-4 months of negotiations, so at a minimum it will be March before it is signed. A PPA for 2 Mw is most likely a loss leader. The statements on the production from Lesedi 4P are meaningless -- are rates increasing from 1 cu m/day up to 2 cu m/day??? The Lesedi wells were drilled about 2 years ago and Tlou has yet to release any quantitative data from the wells like permeability, gas content, gas composition, and gas and water production rates. Without releasing this data, no one can make an educated guess whether this project will be a success or a bust. From my long experience in the industry the fact that Tlou won't release production and reservoir data leads me to believe that the project is not going as planned. Of course this is just my opinion because as I said above without the release of any hard data one doesn't really know what is going on. If TG and the BOD will release some actual data, I will gladly eat humble pie and add to my position.