Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
I believe it is time for new management.
Like Chaebol mentioned,
Millions with epic
Million with pluto
Millions with Intel
Millions with Argo labs
So much money has been wasted, The focus should be building and filling, Rather than Diversifying, During this BTC Half
Bitcoin Miners have faced the Gold Rush Miners Dilemma,
Growing too fast, Too quickly, while costs increase, revenues decrease.
CORZ is down 78% since the troubles and down 99% since SPAC From $10 to $0.20,
Bitcoin Miners need a hailmary in the Bitcoin price,
I suspect most Miners grew to require a price of $25k BTC,
So Months of $20k is hurting them badly.
Only the Most efficient will survive.
Prices are coming down from the Strategic reserves, and EU Maxing LNG storage,
Looks like it'll be a warmer Winter than first forecasted, So prices are going down naturally,
Argo currently have a short term PPA,
We found out in 2 weeks, whether they're able to raise capital for a long term PPA.
What is the Current Net Asset Value of Argo?
The interim results showed:
Total assets 303,665
Total equity 165,158
Total liabilities 138,507
Current Market cap is 59,000
Can Argo share price go from 12p to 5p?
At what market cap, would a takeover process begin?
I think Bitcoin Miners with large liquidity are watching Argos share price, and at some point, It will be more profitable to buy argo than to build like argo,
My current thoughts are Core Scientific, Marathon, RIOT are looking to takeover.
Argo Doesnt have fundamental problems with its plans, Raise cash, buy machines, Use Renewable energy, repeat,
BUT It has fundamental problems in strategic planning, no time scale planning or forecasting. Cash flow problems, Strategic investments in the wrong areas, wasting and locking up millions $$
Given the Long term Assets, Current Assets, Current Liabiltiies, Long term liabilities,
Argo isn't in a bankruptcy position At the moment ,
But they are heading towards it , with another 3 - 6 months of $20k BTC or lower..
Although they are operating at Gross Profit = Revenue - Direct Cost for $20k BTC
They have a -$1M Net Loss from expenses, from wages to Interest payments,
How do I see Argo Surviving?
- BTC price jumps to $40k
- Energy Prices come down (Energy Prices have somewhat stabilized) Stay at $0.05 - $0.07
As long as one of those things happen in the next 3 months, Argo will survive,
If the strategic investor withdraws, Argo won't be able to get a long term Power Purchase Agreement,
But the 800 BTC sold last month, ($16M),
Assuming majority was for debt, the remaining ~$4M should be enough for Argo to survive the next 3 months,
After that, it's likely they'll bankrupt,
Will see what happens, as their growth timeline goes up to March 2023,
I personally believe Epic was the worst Partner Argo could choose, It locked up $5M cash last year, and now it's locked up Intel Cores + $$$,
Along with the waste of money invested in Pluto,
Those two investments show poor strategic vision and cash flow issues could be fixed if they had the $ from those two investments,
The RNS came out October 7th
"The Company and Investor expect to complete the Subscription within the next 30 days, and a further announcement will be made in due course."
So I guess 6th Nov 22 is the date to look out for.
Hmm,
You think this is a Close Period, so insiders are unable to buy for a month, or without prior disclosure.
Perhaps, as they released an RNS of shares being sold last month,
I'll be interested to see what happens at the months RNS.
Despite the Low Share price, There are no insiders buying?
As a shareholder with long term vision, I am buying.
But I'm concerned that I am not seeing any buying from insiders,
not even 10k shares? $1k ?
let alone 100k shares...
I'd let to make some adjustments***
I believe the Totals should be $25M with NPV $250M...
Meaning the Operating Costs are likely ~$25M...
Which is inline with monthly RNS cost breakdowns...
So my guess is, Current capital raise is just to start paying for PPA annual costs up front.
I am asssuming the recent capital raise is to To Secure a Long Term PPA which requires a large capital.
Here is an example of costs associated to Power Purchase Agreements Africa - EU.
http://minigridpolicytoolkit.euei-pdf.org/system/files_force/RECP_Power%20Purchase%20Tool%20Explanation60ab.pdf?download=1
My PPA prediction for Helious. - 100MW (currently) with Option +100MW.
Following the PDF (adjusted for current energy markets in texas (Most numbers are guesses lol)):
Enter the expected plant characteristics -------------
Plant Characteristics:
Type: Solar.
Available capacity: 100MW
PPA term: 10 years 20 years
Average plant utilization: 90%
Estimate the investment and operating costs paid by the IPP ------------------------
Investment Costs:
Development costs: $0.5M
Construction: $1M
connection costs: $0.5M
Total: $2M
Operating Costs:
Fixed O&M costs: $500,000 / year
Variable O & M costs: $0.00 / kwh
Fuel costs: $0.00 /kwh
Estimate Additional costs paid by the netowrk owner (i.e for reinforcements or transmission losses) ---------------
aditional costs to be considered
network reinforcement costs: $1M
network reifnorcement costs per unit: $ 0.00 /kwh
transmission losses: 1%
Expected discount rate of the average costs of capital for IPP --------------------------------
discount rate
gearing: 70%
real interest rate: 12%
pre tax real ROE: 20%
WACC (pre tax real): 10%
Calculations:
Generation:
Annual Power Supplied: 100 MWh
Annual Costs:
Investment Costs: $2M
Fixed operating costs: $0.5M
Variable operating costs: $0.0M
Total: $2.5M
NPV: $25M
Reinforcement Costs: $1M
Outputs:
PPA prices
Capacity price: $/kW 20
Energy Price: $/kWh 0.90
NPV: $25M
levelised costs:
annual power purchase costs: $2.5M
annual power supplied: 100 MWh
levelized cost: $/kWh 0.90
NPV : $25M
Any Other thoughts are welcome, I wrote this up on guestimates honestly, But following the Pdf figures against Deisel vs Hydro Vs Biomass...
Argo Told us they will use 100% renewables... but I think the prices would match closer to Deisel figures at current markets...
A part of me hopes Bitcoin stays at these prices for the next 6 months,
Just so that Poorly managed Bitcoin Miners are flushed out of the system.
If you could survive during $3000 - $6000 prices, why are you unable to survive during $20000 +- $4k prices?
Poor management decisions, Poor cash flow projections, Bad forecasting, bad strategic planning,
Similar to the Commodities, The wasteful companies will burn out.
This RNS is super disappointing,
87M shares sold for 24M, that is the worst news to come during a bear market.
Selling machines, disappointing.
Restructuring NYDIG,
there is clearly a cash flow problem with this company,
I'm having thoughts on whether to cut my losses or not.