RE: New message from the company25 Jan 2024 04:55
i believe ****nal221’s share price of 2.5p was based on the historical investment frr made in georgia from 1997-onwards. my own thoughts? i think if the psa is renewed (which is the main driving factor), and the cost recovery pool is retained (at c.$320m), then this has a carrying value to any future farmout partner, particularly if that partner is a multinational-major from the us. there is also all the drilling data accumulated covering different oil fields. but again, no way to work out a potential s/p until we know what fields the psa will capture (ie in terms of value from p2 and p3 cpr reserves).
personally i think there is a farm out deal waiting to be closed but that is dependent on the renewal of the psa. what’s the evidence for this? i guess the continuous legal fights with multiple stakeholders over many years (especially in the absence of renewed psa), tells you that they are fighting for a reason, so what could that be unless they have something in their back pocket (re-emergence of dustin aro with frr may be the independent consultant that is the go between the two parties?).
finally, in terms of future value of a deal to company and shareholders: as ****nal221 alluded, frr had accumulated over $500m in p&l losses which are future tax deductibles, meaning no tax (or very small amount) to be paid to the us govt until these losses are clawed back. important to note here the difference between the cost recovery pool and the p&l accumulated losses reserve. for the cost recovery pool, and as i understood it, nothing was payable to the georgian govt from sale of oil until this cost recovery pool was fully recovered. however i don’t know if this is actually the truth. why? well, the basis for dragging frr to the arbitration tribunal was because in all the years frr was selling georgian oil (i reckon over a period of 20-yrs, perhaps this amounted to over $100m), frr never gave a penny to the gg. and we know what happened at the tribunal. - we lost! perhaps someone with a longer memory will recall why the tribunal judges ruled against us despite this provision in the psa.
so, completely pointless discussing a potential value of each frr-share until we know where we stand legally (with all the ongoing cases) and the status of the psa. there is also the moldovan psa, but is this even valid? but the fact zm, hope, ya etc are all looking to take a piece of frr, there must be a good reason.
happy to hear other people’s ideas and thoughts on this.