Member Info for mojo7865

Agree Mark it's kind of reminiscent of a few months ago where bp wasn't tracking oil prices up the ideal outcome is the war stops and the people of Ukraine are allowed to build back their lives. However I think the damage Russia has done will last a generation oil prices are likely to stay higher for longer at the mo but with every producer wanting to monetize as much reserves as they can I can see a free for all at some stage especially as no one wants to be seen buying Russian oil and gas.

You are right though if oil starts tanking I think BP will tank along with it. UK oilies are in a strange place at the mo we have two face Boris back tracking on green all of a sudden as he can see high energy prices have made him and his gov unpopular so now they are looking back at north sea assets. I read in article that Bressey XEL's old plot got sold by the bond holding company to enquest I think it was that will be interesting 300 million barrels untapped only economical if oil stays at $80.

I'm not sure what i'd put my money in at the mo tbh everything just looks a bit uncertain.

Hey Mark hope you are well. I do feel for you on this one I think no ones got BP right so far it almost seems like it does the opposite of what it should be doing. I think the Rostneft stake is still a bit of a mystery until it's on the books as a loss no one really knows what the write off amount will be. Until there's a bit of certainty back in the market I think it's risk off we're border line heading for a serious recession imo. It could be worse you could be a holder of Evraz that will leave a bitter taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

In a way this is a significant chance for a market share grab a lot of opec members have been wanting to increase their share for a while now. This is an opportune moment as doing business with Russia will be seen as taboo for a long time whilst Putin is still in power.

UAE pushing for supply boost if one remembers they have the capability of adding a significant amount to the daily barrel count.

https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_122808b95fbb4a82dda168f9416ffe85

It takes time for the oil markets prices to have an impact it’s not a straight away thing. I’m sure multiple businesses have hedged at lower prices for the next few months if not a year. You’d think at these prices bp would be closer to 450p but I think rostneft stake is virtually unsellable. Funny read shell has been buying Russian oil wonder how many other oil producers have been doing the same. Money and morals don’t mix.

All all honesty this Putin situation is such a curve ball no one knows what’s going to happen but inflation globally is through the roof quite scary. Russia had to go 20% on interest rates over night. Turkey has 54% inflation and that’s because they’re refusing raising rates. Not sure how the U.K. is going to fare against this back drop in the next 12-24 months. If you have any loans at the mo I hope you’ve fixed them in for the long run.

No idea my friend with sqz I think I bought at 6p sold at 23p the rest is history on that one. All I could remember is them buying up some assets from bp North Sea portfolio years ago when I sell I tend not to keep track of things on that front. Plus I stopped buying aim shares a good while back.

Looks like a good value buy at 330p

This year looks bleak in my opinion especially with the change in the Russian/Ukraine situation the stars are aligning for what I think will be the worlds biggest financial crisis. I’m still firm on the belief that the sleeping giant of the Chinese property market collapse is coming round the corner $100 billion worth of debt due with half expected to miss payments. I’m pretty sure central banks are going to hang fire now on raising rates thinking by mid 2022 we will see inflation in around 10% or more. The financial markets will unravel. They always say recessions tend to lag real-time events by a year go figure will see how this pans out.

Wasn’t going to post on this the past 24 hrs have been truly shocking. I think the western leaders have shown how truly weak and powerless they are to help. Putin has now called their bluff after a weak round of sanctions. He knows no western leader or super power would risk nuclear fall out. USA has shown their hand by saying “ we won’t apply sanctions that hurt American wallets” well if you’re not going to apply sanctions on the area which Russia is the second biggest producer and supplier then what are you going to do. Dark times I could only imagine this situation gets worse. What worries me is that Putins actions could be a prelude to other disputed territories being invaded Taiwan Kashmir etc.

XEL bought at 40p sold at 380p bought back in again at 200p sold for 30p lol
GKP bought at 100p sold at 80p
AEY bought at 20p held too long went bust
Des bought at 50p went bust
SQZ bought at 16p sold for 30p lol sold too early
Too many to mention all aim AMC, RMP

Most the time like you said it was greed either I held too long or when I sold I bought back in again on a dip and got greedy.

That was mostly in my novice year in 2008 was still learning since those experiences I've never touched aim again.

Best success was buying bdev at 80p the dividends on that over the years were amazing.

Been reading the recent thread of thoughts good to see you're all doing well and glad to see BP has finally rewarded your patience. Just going to throw in my 2pence.

My call on BP falling back over all has been wrong by 30% so kudos to you holders. I've been having a break from the market for a while now had some other projects that had been taking up a fair bit of time and now they are reaching completion I've started to return some focus back on the market.

These past few days I've siphoned through quite a few FT articles over the past week it's interesting to see the shift or what i call the two faced nature of the media and analysts.

During the pandemic it was all about oil is dead green is in divest such companies that did well during that period ITM and AFC to name a few there was another can't quite remember the name but now all the hype has been deflated from those balloons and have cost a lot of RIs big bucks.

I'm going to hold my hands up and say this i got carried away during the pandemic and ate up all the media bias toward the oil and gas sector. With time to reflect I have changed my thinking about our dependence around this companies being around for decades to come.

Now that's not to say I'm going to pile in anytime soon or make any wild price predictions what I will say is that I'm still concerned about the Chinese property market and it's impact on the global economy this year alone there are bond payments of $60 billion due and a lot are already being written off as they are not expected to be paid.

I'm probably looking at maybe a late march to mid April entry on most things where I'll buy up things such as BP or SHEL and AAL RIO. Banks look tempting again with rate rises on the horizon a lot of speculation on how fast the fed will raise rates to stem inflation but, I think China could pose a threat to that ever happening instead, I think rates will rise short term then be brought back to historical lows due to an impending contagion of the Chinese property market.

Anyway good to see you are collecting dividends and seeing capital growth long may it continue.

Hi Mark,

Do hope you and your family are well and you have a safe and enjoyable holiday. I do feel for you as your logic is sound but your timing reeks of Pepe le pew.

Lol non doubt some vindication I remember Smithy shooting me down on another lockdown when we came out of Delta and all the signs were there. You probably even remember me saying I won't be buying anything till Dec well low and behold I probably will still wait and assess the damage in a few weeks.

I mean no malice to any holders here I understand your logic and thinking about "in the long run" I've been there done that sometimes it has worked out but majority of the times in my experience it hasn't there's always an event around the corner to f*** long term goals up unfortunately. You need a chain of events for things to go as you want.

Prime example for me was believing in the Lloyds will recover eventually when i bought prior to Brexit that one hurt as I held through covid "collected the divi" I took the hit when it recovered somewhat in summer as I see it never reaching he heights it once reached in this low interest environment.

This gov and Boris is too predictable. In the medium term anyone buying now should be rewarded by summer when I expect us matrix slaves to be let off our leash again until the next problem.

In any case I will be buying bp or shell if they do go below 3 and 12.5 as I see value about there in a lockdown environment for a quick 10% gain but I won't be holding into March with Evergrande bonds due.

GL all.

See how America reacts first Biden has some sort of announcement coming this week. This gov trying hard not to lockdown prior to Christmas but I think whether it’s before or after a lockdown has become inevitable regardless of what people here think.

You forgot quad witching this Friday in the list licker lol. Loads of risk on things in the markets in the coming weeks and months. Loads of pressure from the imf on the U.K. to raise rates. Think that will depend on what the fed does Boe never takes the first step they follow the fed. Also fitch rated evergrande in default just a few days ago that snowball is just beginning 2022 is going to be rough globally stick it in the mattress or buy some gold.

Hearing plan c will be announced then we’ll be in a new lockdown come the 18th

Hi Mark hope you’re well, I think the CCP will do domestic bailouts but, foreign bond holders are going to be left holding the bags. Also if the sum of money in question $260 mil is such a small amount and they’re going to struggle to pay I worry when the bond repayments are due q1 of next year that alone is in the 2-3 billion range.

In a lot of ways this can’t go on forever infinite amount of money printing has caused a big headache globally with inflation now the fed isn’t willing to extend their bond buying program and most central banks follow the fed. Something will give eventually and higher rates maybe the only answer the problem is though how many of us are over leveraged on variable rate loans or on short term fixed rates 2 years. These are the people/ businesses that will be impacted most by an evergrande collapse. Covid caused a massive transfer in wealth as did 08 .

I fear more of the same for 2022 there will be a massive shift in peoples net worth and the disparity between rich and poor will be ever clearer. There will be no more middle class.

One of my fav scenes when it comes to market movies great performance from Jeremy Irons https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UOYi4NzxlhE

https://on.ft.com/3pmseXz Here’s a gift link but only good for 3 uses.

Sorry can’t against the regulations unfortunately. Would be breaching FT rules. Gist is Chinese gov has sent in some people to sort the situation as Evergrande board has said they’re unlikely to meet the next payment. It’s a ticking time bomb Lehmans style looks to me like they’re buying time and trying not to cause panic before all the important people have taken out all their exposure once that’s done, it’s time to tell everyone the music has stopped.