RE: Sea of green posts5 Feb 2026 09:05
Group revenue +6.5% and service revenue +7.3% in Q3.
Organic service revenue +5.4%, showing genuine underlying growth despite FX headwinds.
Growth is broad-based, especially in Africa and Türkiye.
2. Africa remains a standout growth engine
Organic service revenue +13.5% (again).
Strong financial services (M-Pesa, Vodafone Cash) growth:
M-Pesa +24.6% organic
Vodafone Cash +60% organic
Expanding customer base and rising data usage across markets.
Strategic upside from Safaricom acquisition (pending approvals).
3. UK merger integration off to a fast start
VodafoneThree integration progressing ahead of plan.
Network sharing already benefiting ~29m customers.
Improved churn, better customer experience, and strong broadband momentum.
Scale advantage: now largest mobile operator in the UK.
4. EBITDA growth and guidance confidence
Adjusted EBITDAaL +2.3% organic in Q3.
YTD EBITDAaL +5.3% organic.
Management confident in delivering upper end of FY26 guidance.
Healthy margins maintained close to ~29%.
5. Strong shareholder returns
€3.5bn share buybacks completed, plus another €500m starting.
Dividend expected to grow 2.5% in FY26.
Signals confidence in cash flow sustainability.
6. Germany showing signs of stabilisation
Return to positive service revenue growth (+0.7%).
Wholesale momentum improving.
Broadband ARPU improving sharply (+21% YoY on new customers).
Completion of 1&1 migration removes a major execution risk.
👎 Cons (Pressure points & risks)
1. Operating profit sharply down
Operating profit -52.7% YoY in Q3.
Impacted by M&A-related non-cash items and Indian simplification.
While largely accounting-driven, it still hurts headline profitability optics.
2. UK organic revenue decline
UK organic service revenue -0.5%.
Business segment particularly weak due to:
Prior-year one-offs
Planned managed services exits
Consumer momentum is good, but enterprise recovery still fragile.
3. Germany still structurally challenged
Growth is thin and wholesale-led, not yet broad-based.
Mobile ARPU under pressure due to competition.
Broadband customer losses continue (value-over-volume strategy).
TV business remains in structural decline.
4. FX and hyperinflation distort reported results
Türkiye looks weak on a reported basis (-13.5% service revenue) despite strong organic growth.
Africa revenue growth partially offset by local currency depreciation.
Makes headline growth harder to interpret for investors.
5. Margin pressure in Q3
Adjusted EBITDAaL margin fell to 26.9% (from ~29%).
Reflects:
Integration costs
Inflation
Competitive pressure in Europe
Management says phasing is expected, but still a watch item.
6. Competitive intensity in parts of Europe
Portugal and Romania facing strong price pressure.
Romania also affected by customer losses from acquired Telekom Romania base.
Growth in Other Euro
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