Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It 's about the real oil!
"At some point over the next 18 months, oil analysts will have to change US shale oil into US shale NGL oil. Oil weighting in US shale oil producers is dropping at an alarming rate as Permian players become gassier and gassier. This is not a surprise to anyone who's tracked some of the best producers in the Permian. Diamondback Energy (FANG) is a great example of this, with oil weighting dropping from 74% in 2017 to 59% in 2023. The trend going forward will be a further decline in oil weighting, while both the NGL and natural gas components increase."
"This is an alarming trend and something everyone needs to pay attention to....The world is not ready for what's to come if US shale oil production peaks. The Permian Basin single-handedly rescued the world from a structural oil supply deficit....
From 2025 to 2030, the theme will be centered around the lack of production growth outside of OPEC, and what happens to global oil demand at $XXX oil price. We are entering a new paradigm, and this alarming trend is not gaining enough attention."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4688683-an-alarming-trend-is-developing-in-us-shale-oil-production
Good morning, Romaron, looking at HBR's and ITH's needles i think it is wiser to write " a deal might" instead of "a deal will". Hi Dumbly, a very well written article indeed, you might find some more inspiration in the other EnergyVoice article :
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/552748/oil-and-gas-seen-as-devil-incarnate-complains-north-sea-dealmaker/
I 've noticed that British American Tobacco also is using similar terminology (Initial stage and Second stage) and different brokers for both stages....Don't ask me why. "Further to the share buyback programme announced by BAT on 18 March 2024 to buy back £1.60bn of BAT ordinary shares starting with £700mn in 2024 and with the remaining £900mn in 2025 (the "Programme"), the Company purchased 7,435,278 ordinary shares between 18 March 2024 and 30 April 2024 pursuant to an agreement with UBS AG London Branch (the "Initial Stage"). The Initial Stage of the Programme closed on 30 April 2024 and the Company today announces that it has entered into an agreement with Merrill Lynch International ("Merrill Lynch") on a non-discretionary basis, to purchase shares during the period commencing on 1 May 2024 and ending on 21 June 2024 (the "Second Stage"). Both the Initial Stage and the Second Stage form part of the Company's £700mn share buyback programme for 2024."
"When something isn’t working, governments are entitled to change the policy. Better the political humiliation of a screeching U-turn than to soldier on with a programme regardless of the harm it might be doing. Yet the current Government has taken the practice of constantly changing its mind to a whole new level; barely has the ink dried on the latest policy initiative before it is junked in favour of whatever the political lobbies might be demanding. Unfortunately for the Tories, they have lots of these lobbies to answer to; some of the loudest, moreover, are often in direct conflict with each other. It’s driving the business community, which on the whole favours consistency and certainty in policy above all else, mad with frustration. You reluctantly set your plans to comply with whatever burdens the Government sees fit to place on you, only to find that the rug is then pulled from beneath you. It is small wonder levels of business investment in the UK are so low. Britain’s once hard-won reputation for dependability is being turned to mush by an ever more confusing switchback of policy reversals."
"As we continue to flagellate ourselves in pursuit of a net zero target we are in practice very unlikely to meet, we can at least be confident of one thing; whatever we do, it’s not going to make a blind bit of difference.
Today, Britain is down to less than 1pc of global emissions. The solution to global warming long since ceased to be in our hands, but lies instead with the US, China, India and the developing world. By taking the global lead in government enforcement, we only shoot ourselves in the foot."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/01/net-zero-leviathan-crushing-uk-economy/
"Stay angry!" is the better statement, Romaron. Found this on the SQZ-board and words the problem excellently :
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13346543/Tory-windfall-tax-war-killing-North-Sea-oil-Serica-chief-blasts-Labour-plan.html
"We have historically had success investing in companies transitioning from a focus on reducing leverage to enhancing shareholder returns, as they often experience a valuation boost post-inflection."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684261-british-american-tobacco-stock-has-the-potential-to-substantially-rerate
Where 's the free market?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/25/vauxhall-maker-threatens-quit-uk-market-net-zero-crackdown/
Very similar to what happens to our sector. We have the privilege of punitive taxes until 2029 because the Government wants to force a much more expensive alternative upon the populace. Anyone still thinking consequences of net zero and electrification won't be detrimental to financial health, have simply a look at what copper prices are doing....
9 X cheaper....
Rishi Sunak has urged investors to back defence companies amid concerns that they are being spurned by environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds.
In a statement accompanying a rise in military and industrial spending, the Prime Minister stressed that supporting western arms companies was compatible with so-called ethical investing practices.
He said: “There is nothing more ethical than defending our way of life from those who threaten it.”
At the same time, a joint statement was released by the Treasury and Investment Association on Tuesday which added that the defence industry “contributes to our national security, defends the civil liberties we all enjoy, while delivering long-term returns for pensions funds and retail investors”.
It added: “Investing in good, high-quality, well-run defence companies is compatible with ESG considerations as long-term sustainable investment is about helping all sectors and all companies in the economy succeed.”
It comes after ESG funds showed reluctance to invest in arms companies or nuclear energy producers.
F*ing hypocrites!
In France, state spending is a massive 58pc of GDP, while the US, even with President’s Biden’s huge increases in welfare payments and industrial subsidies is still only at 36pc. A country which has usually been closer to Washington than Paris is now starting to drift the other way.
This is happening across the economy. As Tuesday’s shocking figures for public borrowing showed, even with punishing tax rises the government is still nowhere close to balancing the books, with a deficit running at 4.4pc of GDP compared with 5.5pc for our neighbour. And of course, growth is miserable.
France is expected to expand by only 0.7pc this year, on IMF forecasts, while the UK will only manage 0.5pc. The USA, on the other hand, is projected to roar ahead at 2.7pc.
The problem is that while we’re increasingly mimicking the French public spending strategy, we don’t seem to get anything like the same results. If you are going to have a huge, intrusive state – and of course at least a few of us would prefer that we didn’t – then at least you might as well have the French version.
For all its faults, it certainly seems to have one redeeming feature. It is effective. On almost any measure you care to look at the French government machine easily outperforms the British one.
Such as? France has a far better health system, combining social insurance with state provision, and while the French are angry that average waiting times to see a GP have risen from four days before the pandemic to 10 that is far better than this country, where the waiting time for a routine appointment is 19 days, if you can get to see a doctor at all.
We have huge levels of government spending. We have punitive taxes. The state micro-manages the economy, offering lavish levels of welfare, while constantly racking up more and more debt.
True, we don’t have a boulangerie on every corner, and we don’t have riots every weekend – or at least, not yet. But in almost every other way, however, as Indermit Gill, the chief economist of the World Bank, pointed out this week, the British economy has slowly turned into a French tribute act.
There is just one catch. While France at least gets results from its sprawling state, the UK seems to get almost nothing. We face a fate far worse than our neighbour on the other side of the Channel – French levels of tax and debt, combined with practically third-world levels of investment and public services.
It is one of the ironies of the last half decade that instead of turning into Singapore on Thames or mimicking American dynamism after leaving the European Union, the UK has turned into France instead.
As Gill put it, “the country that used to be most like the United States in all of Europe was the UK. And you guys decided to go and become a lot more like continental Europe. You look like France, not like the US.”
UK economy is turning into a French tribute act – without any of the hits
Matthew Lynn
24 April 2024 • 6:00am
Matthew Lynn
4
Sunak Macron
While France at least gets results from its sprawling state, the UK seems to get almost nothing Credit: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
We have huge levels of government spending. We have punitive taxes. The state micro-manages the economy, offering lavish levels of welfare, while constantly racking up more and more debt.
True, we don’t have a boulangerie on every corner, and we don’t have riots every weekend – or at least, not yet. But in almost every other way, however, as Indermit Gill, the chief economist of the World Bank, pointed out this week, the British economy has slowly turned into a French tribute act.
There is just one catch. While France at least gets results from its sprawling state, the UK seems to get almost nothing. We face a fate far worse than our neighbour on the other side of the Channel – French levels of tax and debt, combined with practically third-world levels of investment and public services.
It is one of the ironies of the last half decade that instead of turning into Singapore on Thames or mimicking American dynamism after leaving the European Union, the UK has turned into France instead.
As Gill put it, “the country that used to be most like the United States in all of Europe was the UK. And you guys decided to go and become a lot more like continental Europe. You look like France, not like the US.”
It’s hard to disagree. Public spending in the UK rose from 39pc of GDP in 2019 to 50pc during the pandemic, and it has now settled at 44pc.
Aying up for the bills. £87 billion a year – by the start of 2030 for defence, decarbonization of the grid will cost a few billions, where will they get all this money? Big deficits, more and more debt, growth almost non-existant....The tanks will drive with solar panels i guess....If we as civilians would be spending like Governments, we would 've been bankrupt decades ago.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/24/britain-faces-a-fate-much-worse-than-france/