The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
'I can't see a jv as the the big banks are in this on no sale no fee basis. They're not in this for a jv, they don't hold our stock. They're in for a sale.'
Indeed, however, I can't help but feel things have changed since September.
September, DLA Piper were appointed, which feels like ages ago now.
My personal belief is we had a deal ready to go with NN, and then things changed in December, what has changed?
Well, some people are saying any non-binding offers made were too low, I disagree, I believe offers may have been suitable at the time, that is why we got to the FSP stage and why DLA Piper were appointed.
However the rising prices in the metals and rising interest may have changed what the BOD saw as a suitable offer, possibly referred to as 'complex transactional structures', is what has delayed the FSP up until this point, and maybe at this point NN are now out of the running unless they are willing to improve their offer.
Maybe this complex transactional structures refers to the Japanese interest (which we didn't know at the time), but if the BOD are saying MT is going to be the cornerstone, it seems to me that the EGM is a final call for bidders to either make a suitable offer, or we will do a JV with the Japanese.
My only thing is I'm surprised that CS and DS would be willing to engage with the JV, surely they would want to move on now, the value in a JV wouldn't be seen for a few years.
One thing I still can't get my head around is Tamerlan Abdikeev and the timing of his appointment, if we are close to a deal, what's the reasoning behind his appointment/
I was very intrigued by GFD's posts recently in regards to the EGM and they seem very plausible, but just can't help but feel we still have some way to go.
I originally expected us to be done and dusted by March but I was well off there, but in any case, in till the end.
I've noticed the trolls and shorters have decided to take a breather, hopefully someone cuts off their oxygen for good.
I think it's important to straighten the facts out dealer.
These individuals come across very well written and to the naked eye, look like they know what they are talking about, they mention the Takeover panel, they use comparisons to other companys and assets, like TBTT did with Tharsia.
To the untrained eye, they make their posts look very convincing, i.e the numbers TBTT used for Tharsia.
If anyone remembers TDT, you'll remember how well he used to come across, yet he disappeared from here and and the chance at any real debates at the first hurdle when he knew he was caught out when we began trading/FSP began, it was easy for him to chat garbage during suspension.
You realise he won't step foot in this BB again, same way TBTT won't ever post on GGP again, so it's important to drown them out.
'I find it interesting that you (and the other rampers on here) resort to personal insults rather than trying to actually rebut TBTT's arguments. He is spot on regarding EUA's actual valuation in my view, and when they are forced to eventually fess up and stop relying on this absurd record breaking bid-free 'sales process' the market cap will more accurately reflect the value (or lack thereof) of the assets EUA have.'
Try again, we can see all see the desperation, especially you out of all them, the fear in your constant posting and flip-flopping between here and ADVFN with the most lacklustre and nonsical arguments is comical and is a great watch.
When someone challanges you, you disappear or ignore the post, then revert to type with the same argument in regards to why the company wasn't taken out before, same thing PAAT does on ADVFN, same thing TBTT does, you simply haven't got the market acumen to be able to engage in logical debates, you just live in the conspiracy land with the other butt-hurt individuals who took the wrong call, in your case, the short.
Should have closed that short whilst you had the chance, oh well, it's more fun for us to watch, you'll be more nothing more than a LaughingStork once this proces is over.
'So, either the market cap of Tharisa is completely wrong, and its at least ten times undervalued. Or the market cap of EUA is completely wrong, and its ten times overvalued. (Or, perhaps more realistically, Tharisa is 2-3 undervalued, and EUA is 3-4 times overvalued).'
Doesn't work like that unfortunately TBTT, market valuations aren't as simple as ABCDEF.
You know that, we know that, the FTSE, the NASDAQ, the S&P, the whole bloody world knows that.
You can't say one company's MCAP is disconnected from it's current/potential future earnings, but say that the other company is correct, you're just cherry picking the data you want to justify your crap. Majority of MCAPs do not reflect the actual value of a company, whether that be under or overvalued.
MCAP is based upon more than just what you see today, it's about strategic planning, assessing opportunity cost, political factors, market sentiment, being first to market, being the beneficiary of first mover advantages and plenty of other factors.
You claim to be a Russian mining expert, the same mining expert who claimed EUA would lose their MT licence in a small claims court to NN, but, instead, EUA are in favour with the state and are being handed over licences hand over fist.
You're such an embarassement.
It's also due to the fact that the quick buck chasers have left and the value investors have entered, there's been a lot of strength at these levels but also a lot of traders who may have scooped up at 20p and sold into the low 30s/high 20s, add in a bit of manipulation and pretty much leaves us where we are at.
Will be interesting to see if we get another after hours RNS today.
'The longest FSP in history, no bids and absolutely no independent evidence that anyone is interested in paying £700m+ for a company whose assets were valued at far, far less when it put itself up for sale 18 months ago. Instead, there has been £10m raised, with more dilution on the way.'
Once again, you should try and contact the relevant parties through the correct channels, ranting on about here isn't going to expose the conspiracy any quicker, be quick because I heard those UBS fellas are sly foxes.
Don't you want to expose it MadStork, don't you want to expose this farce of this FSP?
Or do you want to spend your next 2000 posts on here going off on one?
'No idea why the Takeover Panel is allowing this.'
You ever thought of trying to contact the Takeover Panel or the FCA MadStork and highlighting your concerns if it's that much of an issue to you?
'The time frame is irrelevant and it not a dig. Many people here fail to understand that some purchased in the 30s and maybe 40s looking for a quick flip.'
Using your FTSE logic,
You could have bought Easyjet last year before the pandemic and lost tons of money and still be sitting at a heavy loss now.
The FTSE is going to fly regardless because it's the recovery trade for 2021, it had a terrible 2020 so the only way is up.
EUA is 110% up in the past year, I'm sure you are smart to realise shares don't go up in a straight line, if someone bought in at the 30-40p range, that is the risk they decided to take at that moment hoping for a quick result in the FSP.
You could have also taken another risk, for example, if you bought Easyjet in Feb 2020 despite the risk of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading to other countries including our own.
The stock market is risk, you only gain the reward by taking the risk, it's up to an individual to judge that risk.
I don't get this mentality of oh some people got spiked, others bought cheap, it's the stock market, when you make profit, it's because someone has bought in higher then you did previously, are we really going to babysit people's ability to make the correct investment decisions in 2021.
Honestly, it's a joke.
'Where are the facts now!'
The facts are there in every RNS and circular posted since the FSP started.
You can either accept it for what it is...
Or, you can conduct the Financial Conduct authority to report EUA for spreading false information under the Takeover code, you can contact the Takeover Panel for failing to address misleading information in regards to the Takeover code during this FSP, whilst you at it, you can also try to report UBS for representing a company and assisting in a fraud FSP.
All you idiots do is clown on about how these are lies, how farcical the process is, well, do something about it then, if you feel the responsibility to protect weak or newbie investors, conduct a process under the right channels instead of coming on these BBs doing 18 hour shifts to convice people to sell.
It's pathetic at this point.
It's just a pure battle between short-term rainbow chasers and long-term investors.
The get quick rich crew sell, a few holders top-up and more traders buy the lows, then rinse and repeat.
Eventually someone is going to get caught out.
Half of you clowns who come on here trying to spread fear, remember, everyone can see your posting history.
Everyone can see how you flip flop between shares, everyone can see how you use the standard old rampy phrases to push a share price up, then you move on to the next one.
Everyone can see how one day you post about how a share is a strong sell, and then the next week you're ramping the hell out of it.
LSE is full of total hypocrites it's unreal, the investor is a dying art.
Rowka's £3.50 at the time was based on a resource upgrade, so any prediction at the time of £3.50 was unrealistic with just MT and WK.
With the Rosgeo assets, £3.50 can seem more plausible but in my opinion still isn't realistic as a full company sale, if the whole company was taken out at this point, I'd say £2.00 is now the realistic value with £2.50 being the absolute premium, this is obviously because we know the resources aren't completely proven up yet.
I don't believe in a full company sale at this point, now I believe it will be asset sales, short term dividend and a fantastic long-term payout through the JV assets, what you may see happen though is if the assets are sold off in stages, you may end up getting asset sale values that result in a total dividend of £3.50 including MT/WK over the next 2-3 years.
£1 now for MT and WK, and then over the next few years payouts of another £0.50-£1 from further JV assets with every current holder at this time on a free ride would be absolutely fantastic.
To be fair, the majority of people around the different BB's and Twitter have actually quite rightly taken this as good news, you always get a few bad eggs who try and stir a bit of crap but this time around they've been drowned out, long may that continue.
To be honest, there isn't much left to say now,
They are left scratching their heads, the best I saw from MadStork or TBTT was why isn't the takeover panel all over this.
The Takeover Panel have to be satisfied with statements officially released and they specifically state that any false leading statements must be removed as soon as possible, EUA continue to refer to non-binding offers that are being progressed and or progressing strategic options with UBS as their advisors.
The Takeover Panel haven't intervened, and they won't.
Arrogance and ego are terrible traits, at some point, you have to just accept that you got it wrong, you missed the boat, your short got burnt, whatever, move on with your life and accept the L, saw on Twitter that even Jub can't hold it, they are still posting about EUA, wonder if the post was accidental? :)
' I pointed previously to the metal prices on the EUA presentation where they projected forward to 2020 and 2021, well those have been absolutely blown away and even if they were being cautious as is likely, the rises we have seen will have been a very welcome surprise to the BOD, so perhaps 12-18 months ago they would have accepted £2-3m but I am not so sure now. Maybe we are actually holding out for proper value and at the present time there is no one able or willing to afford us, so we press on.'
It's intriguing, something tells me all events from December up until the AC sale are all related to what we see now, including the Rule 2.9 announcement and the FSP update, it all points to the idea that the BOD were happy to sell the full company (maybe for 2-3 billion) at one point and were ready to move to a binding offer, but something changed.
Something changed and as a result, we had an FSP update referring to delays, we had AC releasing some funds and the Rosgeo JV announcement.
Wherever it goes from here, who knows, but it seems like we are about to be part of something huge.
Oh no, Sharebel is back!
Remember the last time he spent the weekend doing night shifts and then disappeared after the price dropped.
Looks like he's crapping his pants again, someone please get him a bloody nappy.
One other point, I know some have been references to MT alongside the JV in the announcements, but I see it a different way.
We are sitting at April 2020 without the SS deal being triggered, it makes no sense whatsoever to delay it for this long if you plan to mine.
I don't think the BOD, are or have ever planned at any point, to take MT into production, they've been sitting on it for a very long time and all the language and discussions around MT has always referred to an asset sale, even if you listen to the DS interview, he said there's no need to rush into a decision to trigger the SS deal, which was likely a strategic move, we know that we've had interest for a while in MT, but it's all about bargaining, you have to show suitors that you are willing to go alone without pulling the trigger, leaving the door open for a deal.
Presumably the interest in MT grew early in 2020, and discussions to acquire the whole company took place as potential buyers realised that EUA had a good footing with the state, as evidently seen with all the licences being issued and the Rosgeo JV.
IMO the BOD initially wanted to sell MT and get a dividend out, but as time went on explored a potential sale of the company came up which triggered the FSP.
Since then, we've seen the incredible run of Palladium and Rhodium, and the JV deal has suddenly changed the game, remember that rule 2.9 announcement and the language in the FSP update, complex structures, involving different parties?
The game has changed and the BOD have realised there is much more in it to shareholders by playing the strategic game.
If we presume that JN is the new MD, it may be that CS will step down from the board at a certain point if we are to sell the 15Moz and get a dividend out, this allows CS and DS to both get some funds released whilst not having to offload any shares, but at the same time, if they do need to offload some shares, they will both be able to without significantly hurting the share price because they delivered an asset sale and proved the ability to pull it off.
JN then runs the show as we progress with the JV assets with Rosgeo, this is I guess, where the Japanese get involved, then those assets either get sold off or taken into production over the next 2-3 years, it's a win win because all of us, including the BOD, get a short term payout, and secure potential further asset sales or dividends from future cash flows going forward.
It's all starting to make sense now, ties in well with the reason for AC selling to release some funds in the time being, JN has obviously been promised some role going forward and this is starting to become glaringly obvious, you don't join the board and become CEO to take a company through a fraud FSP, this thing is serious, which is why UBS and DLA Piper were appointed as advisors.