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Ha.....finally some written confirmation that Fortescue have stalled at Belinga!! CAPD tithe October 2024:

Capital Limited

Q3 2024 Trading Update

Capital (LSE: CAPD), a leading mining services company, today provides its trading update for the period 1 July to 30

September 2024 (the “Period”).

At Belinga, however, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) has now decided to pivot its development strategy from pre-production mining to resource development and, consequently, given the very limited mining activity at Belinga, has made the decision to conclude our mining contract early.

https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Financial-Results/CAPD-Q3-2024-Trading-update-FINAL_Website.pdf

Surprise!! - the Russians aren't building a pipeline to the gates of Zanaga. What they are doing is building it out from Pointe Noire across to the east of Brazzaville. This will be the first leg of their strategic goal of continuing the pipeline on and up country eventually to deliver fuel and energy to CAR. There the Russians, and Wagner, are building a presence that will let them control (dominate?) that mineral rich and strategic region.

For our purposes the fuel pipeline will run from Pointe Noire and past Dolisie, the junction of road and rail comms with Gabon to the north and hence Zanaga (as well as Mayoko).

The Russians have undertaken to guarantee security of supplies, including filling the pipeline with Russian fuel if necessary. For Zanaga this is means guaranteed delivery of diesel 120kms inland from the coast. As I said, unglamorous but essential progress.

Unglamorous but essential progress. Diesel for mines.....

9:06 PM · Apr 16, 2025

Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso @ChristelSassou

This Wednesday, April 16, 2025, I received in audience His Excellency Mr. Ilias Iskandarov, Ambassador of the Federation of #Russie to the Republic of #Congo . This meeting is part of the dynamic of strengthening our bilateral partnership, particularly around the strategic project of construction of the Pointe-Noire–Loutété–Maloukou–Tréchot oil pipeline.

We discussed the progress of the ratification process of the intergovernmental agreement concluded between our two countries on this subject. His Excellency Mr. Iskandarov praised the speed with which Congolese institutions have successfully completed the various parliamentary stages. He also informed me that the Russian Federation is pursuing an equally rigorous legal process to ensure the rapid launch of the work.

I am delighted with the excellent collaboration between our two countries and the close coordination between our respective teams. I reaffirmed to my host our commitment to working together to bring this project to fruition, which is of strategic importance for our energy security. This meeting was also an opportunity to discuss other ongoing bilateral initiatives, in the spirit of strengthening our cooperation.

https://x.com/ChristelSassou/status/1912598508454256663

Meanwhile hotcopper also looked at Rio's 1Q25 numbers.

Rio desperately need replacement tonnage. However they've already picked the low hanging fruit and, worse still, this:

"The company also flagged future iron ore guidance may be impacted by delays in approvals for new mining areas and heritage clearances."

> In short, Rio are struggling to get approval for new mines in Australia.

>> I wonder what they'll do....

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cyclones-rip-through-rios-pilbara-division-shredding-shipments-by-13m-tonnes-and-costing-150m.8542938/?post_id=78711213

Let's complete the dive in Rio's 1Q25 production numbers - and specifically to the decline in the Pilbara.

Rio reported 1Q25 iron ore shipments of 60.9m tonnes. This down 8% on the same period in 2024. Rio blame cyclones at Port Hedland. (Huh? These are seasonal. They get them every year. Ditto 2024. Anyway....)

Within that 60.9m, exports of 'benchmark' Pilbara Blend Lump fell 24% you and Pilbara Blend Fines fell 19% - (ignore for a moment that they cannot make the 62%Fe gold standard, averaging now only 61.5%Fe).

To make up the benchmark deficit Rio increased exports of SP10 Lump by 81% yoy and SP10 Fines by 24% yoy. This SP10 stuff is 55%-58%. Pure dross - just rusty buckets of gravel.

> So: Rio cannot handle the seasonal cyclones, their gold standard Pilbara 62% is now 61.5%, and to make up the grade and resource depletion they are exporting SP10 garbage.

No wonder CEO Jacob Straussholm looks worried.

Rio are still conducting their client review. I wonder what they'll decide to do.... "As we announced on 16 October 2024, we are undertaking a review of our product strategy. We are currently engaging with customers to determine the highest value product strategy for our business and our customers."

>The answer to that is clear...

... 'the harder I work the luckier I get'.

Or, in the case of Zanaga, the more I research the more patient I get:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rio-tinto-releases-first-quarter-production-results.8542140/

Some very important data buried on p.4

Potential is the reason you invest.

Impatience is the way you lose money.

You were given a quite clear timeline for 2Q and we are only just 2 weeks into it.

Thankfully I'm invested in Zanaga's potential and ZIOC's management, not your patience or that of others.

Mark Cutifani knows Phil Mitchell of old, having appointed him to Anglo American from rio in 2014:

ANGLO AMERICAN APPOINTS PHILIP MITCHELL AS GROUP DIRECTOR – HR AND CORPORATE AFFAIRS

03 June, 2014

Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) announces the appointment of Philip Mitchell as Group Director – HR and Corporate Affairs, effective 1 September 2014, following Mervyn Walker’s decision to retire from Anglo American.

Philip Mitchell has held a number of senior leadership positions at Rio Tinto during his 32-year career, most recently as head of business development. His roles have spanned finance, M&A and strategic business change, including playing leading roles in the transformation of Hamersley into Rio Tinto’s key iron ore business, with a proven track record of working closely with business partners and host governments in Australia, China, Asia, South America, Indonesia and Africa.

Philip Mitchell said: “I look forward to working closely with the executive team ...(etc).”

MARK CUTIFANI, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF ANGLO AMERICAN, SAID: “PHIL MITCHELL BRINGS A RARE COMBINATION OF LEADERSHIP SKILLS GAINED ACROSS MANY OF RIO TINTO’S BUSINESSES AND CORPORATE ACTIVITIES. PHIL’S DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF THE MINING INDUSTRY AND THE COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCIES OF STAKEHOLDER GROUPS, TOGETHER WITH HIS EXPERIENCE OF EFFECTIVE ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WILL BE INVALUABLE TO ANGLO AMERICAN AS WE BUILD A MORE COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS.”

9 April 2025 Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited Board Appointments

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce the appointment of Martin Knauth to the Board of Directors in his role as Chief Executive Officer ("CEO"), and Phil Mitchell to the Board of Directors in his role as Non-Executive Director, with immediate effect.

CHATGPT: FURTHER RESEARCH FOUND THAT PHILIP MITCHELL HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT CAREER AT RIO TINTO.​

Philip Mitchell is a mining industry veteran with a long and distinguished history of leadership roles at minerals giants Anglo American and Rio Tinto. At Rio Tinto, he served as Head of Business Development and held roles spanning finance, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and strategic business change, including Managing Director, Development & CFO; Group Advisor, Mergers and Acquisitions; and General Manager for New Business.

He played a leading part in the transformation of Hamersley into Rio Tinto’s key iron ore business. Throughout his career, he has continuously focused on implementing a safety culture and improving productivity to reduce costs .​

After leaving Rio Tinto, Mitchell continued to contribute to the mining industry. He was appointed Group Director, Human Resources and Corporate Affairs at Anglo American in 2014, where he worked closely with business partners and host governments across various regions, including Australia, China, Asia, South America, Indonesia, and Africa .​

ANDREW ‘TWIGGY’ FORREST ON ‘MASSIVE THREAT’ TO WA’S ECONOMIC DRIVER FROM AFRICAN IRON ORE

Africa looms as a “massive threat” to Western Australia’s “low-grade” iron ore, Andrew Forrest warned in an impassioned speech, but the billionaire believes a “green iron” industry is the solution.

WA’s biggest money-spinner faces a big challenge when the mammoth Simandou iron ore project in West Africa, a project nicknamed the “Pilbara Killer”, starts producing iron ore later this year.

The Pilbara region is currently the world’s premier producer of iron ore — a steelmaking commodity that adds more than $9 billion to the State Government’s coffers each year and directly sustains tens of thousands of jobs.

Mr Forrest conceded that the relatively low-quality ore his Fortescue and its Pilbara peers produce would be no match for Africa in the growing competition to feed China’s steel mills.

“I see the massive threat coming from Africa, sponsored by our customer China, of high-grade (deposits in Africa),” he told a 1000-strong crowd at a Leadership Matters breakfast at Crown Perth.

“The world is paying big premiums right now for green steel.”

https://thewest.com.au/business/leadership-matters/leadership-matters-andrew-twiggy-forrest-speaks-on-massive-threat-of-pilbara-killer-iron-ore-project-c-18318823

(as an aside I don't know what Forrest is smoking. Short of a technological miracle (or even several) no amount of solar power is going to transform his 57% dross into green steel. However he has now let the African cat out of the Pilbara bag - they're stuffed, and West Africa is set to dominate the high grade and green steel markets).

Today 07:00

RNS Number : 2138E

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd

09 April 2025

9 April 2025

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited

("ZIOC" or the "Company")

Board Appointments

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce the appointment of Martin Knauth to the Board of Directors in his role as Chief Executive Officer ("CEO"), and Phil Mitchell to the Board of Directors in his role as Non-Executive Director, with immediate effect.

BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER: YESTERDAY'S CONGO-UAE CEPA, RECENT ADQ-ENI POWER JV, RECENT ADQ-ORION RESOURCE PARTNERS JV OF 'AFRICA' 'HIGH GRADE IRON ORE':

Let’s condense the analysis of the ADQ-Orion joint venture’s relevance to the CEPA between the Republic of the Congo and the UAE, focusing on power investments, the Zanaga Iron Ore Project, and pellet plants, with emphasis on Africa and high-grade iron ore.

CEPA Context: The CEPA, signed on April 8, 2025, between Congo and the UAE, fosters economic cooperation, including investment in energy and mining. The X post from @PR_Congo

highlights the event in Abu Dhabi.

ADQ-Orion Joint Venture: Overview

The ADQ-Orion joint venture (Orion Abu Dhabi), a USD 1.2 billion initiative, targets investments in metals and minerals in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, focusing on high-grade iron ore and copper to secure UAE supply chains.

Relevance to Key Areas

1. Power Investments

The CEPA supports UAE investments in Congo’s energy sector, which could power mining projects. The ADQ-ENI joint venture focuses on African energy projects, complementing ADQ-Orion’s mining goals.

Congo’s Centrale Électrique du Congo (CEC) (web result [2]) could supply gas for mining operations, with UAE funding enhancing capacity.

2. Zanaga Iron Ore Project

Zanaga, a high-grade iron ore project in Congo (web result [1]), aligns with ADQ-Orion’s focus on Africa. The CEPA facilitates UAE investment, potentially funding Zanaga’s staged development (1-2 Mtpa initially).

ADQ-Orion could secure offtake agreements, ensuring a stable revenue stream for Zanaga while supplying UAE industries.

3. Pellet Plants

ZIOC’s proposed pelletizing plant (web result [2]) has UAE and Saudi interest. ADQ-Orion’s focus on processed materials supports this, with the CEPA enabling investment in Congo’s Pointe-Indienne SEZ.

A Congo-based plant would add value to Zanaga’s ore, benefiting both nations.

Integrated Analysis

Power: UAE energy investments (via ADQ-ENI) could support Zanaga and pelletizing operations, with CEC gas as a potential power source.

Zanaga: Its high-grade ore fits ADQ-Orion’s strategy, and the CEPA enables UAE funding and offtake.

Pellet Plants: ADQ-Orion and the CEPA support a Congo-based facility, aligning with UAE industrial needs.

Benefits:

Congo: Gains investment in power, mining, and processing, boosting economic growth.

UAE: Secures high-grade iron ore and pellets for its steel industry.

Conclusion

The ADQ-Orion joint venture enhances the CEPA’s impact by targeting Africa and high-grade iron ore, directly linking to Zanaga and pelletizing opportunities in Congo. It supports power infrastructure, mining development, and value addition, benefiting both nations.

Yesterday: Big D in Abu Dhabi and signs a CEPA with MBZ > Paving the way for Emirati investment in Congo...

"The reception was punctuated by the signing of the comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the Republic of Congo and the United Arab Emirates."

7:11 PM · Apr 8, 2025 Présidence de la République du Congo - Officiel @PR_Congo

Le Président de la République, @SassouNGuesso_ , a été reçu, ce Mardi 08 avril 2025, à Abu Dhabi, par le Chef de l'Etat émirati, le Prince Cheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Réception ponctuée par la signature de l'accord global de partenariat économique entre la République du Congo et les Émirats arabes unis.

The President of the Republic, @SassouNGuesso_, was received this Tuesday, April 8, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, by the Emirati Head of State, Prince Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The reception was punctuated by the signing of the comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the Republic of Congo and the United Arab Emirates.

https://x.com/PR_Congo/status/1909670358321365375

The point for me, and for Zanaga, is this, "Rio has an appetite for tackling the most difficult projects, recognising the sheer upside before being overwhelmed by the complexity."

Zanaga is a walk in the park compared to developing Simandou....

Simandou ‘on-track’ for first production

before Stausholm’s address, Rio chair Dominic Barton, in the same breath, called Simandou “one-of-a-kind” and “complex”, capturing both the significance and sophistication of the mine, with more than 600km of trans-Guinean railway being built to get the operation up and running.

This highlights the treasure chest that Rio Tinto and its Simandou partners have discovered, one which lies in the Simandou mountain range spanning more than 100km.

The rich subsoils of Simandou hold an estimated 1.5 billion tonnes of iron ore ore reserves at a grade of 65.3 per cent iron (Fe).

Rio has an appetite for tackling the most difficult projects, recognising the sheer upside before being overwhelmed by the complexity.

://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2025/04/04/african-iron-ore-behemoth-on-track-for-first-production/

BHP SAYS CHINA DEMAND FOR IRON ORE TO REMAIN STRONG FOR SEVERAL YEARS

...

“I still hear conversations taking place about residential construction markets tanking in China. But the equal and opposite conversation that gets missed is that machinery has gone from single digits to over 30 per cent of steel demand. EV production has gone up. Anything to do with decarbonisation has gone up,” he said.

“So you’ve got a country that’s actually running at that billion tonnes of steel production per year rate, and has been quite consistently for the last six years, and I can see a pathway for that continuing in the next few years.

“That is not based on any one sector, but based more on the resilience and the adaptability and how fast China moves when it pivots to new industries and opportunities,” he said. “The Chinese market is much more resilient and agile than people recognise.”

Economists and strategists have forecast a slowdown in the Chinese economy this year on the back of a property market downturn and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. Chinese media reports have also suggested steel production cuts could be enforced by Beijing.

...

Australia’s Department of Industry expects the nation will export iron ore with a face value of $117 billion in the year to June, and predicts iron ore will average $US85 a tonne, excluding the cost of freight, in 2025.

The cost of shipping a tonne of iron ore from the Pilbara region to North Asia was $US9.30 on April 3, according to S&P Global Platts.

Australia is expected to export about 908 million tonnes of iron ore this year, but will face new competition from Africa’s Guinea next year, where Rio Tinto and Chinese state-owned entities are building new iron ore mines in the Simandou mountains.

While Simandou is likely to only produce small volumes next year, it is expected to ramp up to 120 million tonnes before 2030.Udd said the iron ore market could cope with the new supply, given that many existing mines would start to exhaust their supplies.

“The conversation around Simandou being a Pilbara killer is overplayed. We are talking about 120 million tonnes in a global contestable market of well over 1.5 billion tonnes,” he said.

“The thing that sometimes gets missed here is depletion, and some studies estimate depletion of almost a quarter billion tonnes of iron ore coming out of the market between 2025 and 2035.”

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-says-china-demand-for-iron-ore-to-remain-strong-for-several-years-20250404-p5lpaw

https://archive.is/20250406224901/https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-says-china-demand-for-iron-ore-to-remain-strong-for-several-years-20250404-p5lpaw

ONCE upon a time CEOs of companies as grand as Anglo American migrated to a beachside villa or golfing redoubt when they retired. Not today. Take the list of investors stumping up $21m for shares in AIM-listed Zanaga Iron Ore Co (ZIOC).

They include Tony Trahar and Mark Cutifani, who walked the corridors of 44 Main Street for a collective 17 years. Alongside their investment vehicle, Greymont Bay, is Mick Davis, the former CEO of Xstrata, a ZIOC investor in his own right. It was Davis who first spotted the potential of the Zanaga project, in the Republic of Congo (RoC).

However, the project did not progress, mostly for market reasons. Glencore tickled the edges of the project following its $90bn merger with Xstrata in 2012, but didn’t take it forward. The plan now is for Greymont to buy Glencore’s 43% shareholding in ZIOC for $15m and then fire up the project, starting with the balance of the share placement.

ZIOC’s head of corporate development is Andrew Trahar, son of Tony; he is also separately involved in business with Davis. The two co-founded Vision Blue, an investment firm building a graphite project in Madagascar. Other investors include Tony O’Neill, Anglo’s technical director, and ex-Rio Tinto executive Phil Mitchell, who like Trahar is also employed at ZIOC.

Critical minerals come in all stripes these days. While copper is the metal of choice for its multiplicity of applications, iron ore can be just as important, said Trahar. Ore of a certain quality, when pelletised, can be supplied to electric arc furnace technology that slashes carbon emissions in the steel industry, the end user.

Happily, the Zanaga project has this ore, which enables ZIOC to charge a premium to offset costs, so the investment case goes. The plan is to vertically integrate the project with downstream processing technology either in the RoC, which has in-country gas to power the plants, or in the Middle East, either in Saudi Arabia or one of the Gulf states.

It’s no coincidence that Greymont Bay’s investment is conditional on 20% of the Zanaga project’s marketing rights being taken by Gulf Iron & Steel, described by ZIOC as “a consortium of strategic industry entities” interested in developing integrated steelmaking facilities in Asia and the Americas.

“At this stage, there is no formal relationship with a Middle Eastern partner,” Trahar said in an interview last month. “We have an investor invested in downstream plants in the Middle East who see this as an opportunity.” He also acknowledges Cutifani’s previous business with the Saudi state-owned investment company Manara Minerals, which is a shareholder in Vale Base Metals, the Brazilian iron ore company of which Cutifani is chair.

The Zanaga iron ore project will cost $2bn to build, a fraction of the $11.6bn a consortium including Rio Tinto is spending on Simandou, an iron ore project in Guinea.....

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/60789-the-joburg-networ

ZIOC is the blue trace

ZIOC over the last month compared to BHP, GLEN, AAL, Silver and AIM...

https://invst.ly/19wi7p

Did He Inform Trahar, Cutifani, and Davis?

Trahar (ex-Anglo chair), Cutifani (ex-Anglo CEO), and Davis (ex-Xstrata boss) joined the March raise, but did Gupta’s power intel pull them in? Maybe:

Shared Vision: These mining legends know power’s make-or-break—Zanaga’s low-opex edge (ore 300 km from port) needs cheap juice. Gupta’s SEZ-CEC nexus, plus the MoU, signals reliability. X posts (March 19, @MiningZanaga) hype the “all-star lineup” post-Glencore exit, suggesting a collective nod to Congo’s gas-to-power upside.

Gupta as Catalyst: No hard proof Gupta briefed them, but his Arise role and early SEZ talks (pre-2024 MoUs) position him as a Congo insider. Trahar et al. might’ve leaned on his groundwork—Arise’s port deal and CEC’s capacity—to vet ZIOC’s $5.7-10 billion NPV potential. Cutifani’s green steel savvy (pellet plant’s DRI focus) aligns with Gupta’s SEZ pitch.

Timing Clue: The raise’s timing—post-February 3 CEC MoU, pre-March 18 pellet reveal—hints Gupta’s power insight lured them. He’s not just a co-investor; his SEZ stakes him in Zanaga’s success.

My Take

Gupta’s detailed grasp of CEC/Eni power prospects—capacity, gas supply, expansion—likely guided his ZIOC plunge. He’s not guessing; he’s wired into Congo’s grid via Arise. Did he inform the others? No smoking gun, but his SEZ clout and the raise’s momentum suggest he lit the path—Trahar, Cutifani, and Davis aren’t rookies; they’d see Gupta’s power play as a green light. It’s less a whisper in their ear and more a neon sign: Congo’s power’s ready, and Zanaga’s poised.