Member Info for MikeyB55

The primary issue here is that Birds growth momentum is not there. ID has been pushing 'its all about the future' message for too long, without the results he was promising. This does not work to drive up the share price anymore as people have wised up. Which is a pity as the volatility made for great trading and was predictable enough. That said, even at this pri ce, they are still valued at over 10x recurring revenue, which is outstanding. They raised cash at a high price, so have done v well in managing their financials. This ride may be over u less they can actually get some decent sales traction. And Book some real revenues. Ian, take note as I know you are active on this board.

And it comes as a surprise that ARM won't list on LSE but chose NYSE. Volume is too low on the London market and the shorts have a field day manipulating. THG have been battered over the last 18 months. I would assume MM would take this private at this price and the only thing holding him back is his actual loyalty to shareholders. Real ones that is. That backed him pre IPO and since then

Is this just more hype to try to move the share price? We need to see a press release on actual deals done to make this move up. Ian should be providing regular information on deals won. The lack of this information feels like they are struggling to close new business. BtW- 10 years deals are terrible. Huge discounts for longer terms are expected by customers and there is no realistic price increase built in for every year. What we need a big short term deals that renew because the product is great. Recurring revenue tech companies are valued on a multiple of Annual Recurring Revenue, not their forward order book beyond a year.
Ian - we need an update on actual deals closed!

At this price. The current market cap is 16 x recurring revenue. Average valuations are around 7 x revenue at the moment. These guys are smart. They pumped the price up, raised more cash at a when the shares was 3 it s what it is now. Big bonuses can continue.

Poker,
Adobe are a product company primarily and acquire to close out product gaps. They already have the market leading editor, so this won't be on their radar and its unlikely the will acquire Bird to take them out as a threat(2.5m does not register).
My concerns as I noted before is that there is a lot of effort to influence the share price through sentiment, rather than put more effort, cash, sales heads etc into lead generation and deals. There is only so many times you can state that big deals are on the horizon and this has been going on for 3 years. Are the exec LTIPS based on the share price rather than revenue? As an insider, possibly you can share?
What I like about the stock is the volatility, so long may that last . As a long term investment I'm not sure this is a great punt. Look at the past 3 years as its underwhelming. And the positioning of unknown deals that can't be announced as well not being reflected in revenue - you have to question the credibility of the hype.
Just my view on this.

There are some big challenges here. The creatures prefer Adobe tech and Blackbird are Tring to break into this, but I expect its a long hard road, hence the lack of real revenue traction.
Pokerchips over enthusiastic promotion of the business when they are struggling with posting new deals positions him as an insider at Bird.
What's needed is for Ian to focus the team on driving new revenue, not positioning its all in the future. If it is the deep pockets of Adobe, Microsoft, Avid will take it all away from the small niche players. This is a great stock, with good volatility and money to be made. But believing the 'all in the future' positioning, with no material revenue progress is naive.

Poker, agree that they have good recurring deals in place that renew from year to year. But Bird need to be winning more new business. There have been very few new name wins over the past 9 months. Its great that they can expand revenues in their existing clients, but new name wins is what will get investor attention. The video space is very hot at the moment. Small growing companies in this space, like LucidLink are posting growth of +100% YoY. Need some decent new wins now, not hype messages about Ian attending a royal event.

Yes definitely need deals. I have come to the view though that all the focus on PR, awards etc is a smokescreen because the deals are not there and they are pumping positive message without actual revenue increases. Come on Ian, refocus the PR efforts to lead generation.

The £10m raise was brilliant. At a very high valuation too. 60x revenue. Absolutely brilliant. Struggling to sell to tier1 customers at scale though as these customers typically use Adobe, which has more industry standard connectivity and third party integrations. Strong in the mid market though and expect them to be making more sales. What's the plan to address this Ian?

pokerchips, Quite happy with Bird now that I understand the fluffmarketing announcements without financial substance. I've made more on the downside here over the past 9 months than on other high growth businesses with good fundamentals. Its a cracker!

Finally figured out how to trade on Bird. Lots of pr on new name logos drive the price up, but when financials come out they are always dissapointing. Low growth numbers and always about the future whichdrives the price down.

Anyone on this board have proper insights into the business. Lits of wild bs posts by shorts and bulls who got caught in the drop. THG has good fundamentals, strong revenue and posting high growth. Most of the analysts have a price target of 700. What am I missing here? Fact driven answers if you have them pleae

Frame.io I understand was bought for 60x revenue. Blackbird has a higher valuation as a multiple of revenue, so not sure too many aquirers out there at this price multiple without some form offantastic product synergy as frame.io and Adobe have.

Are the director selling? IM sharehding according to this board has dropped from 20m shares to 9m shares. Are these shares transferred to the family trust and then sold off so they are not disclosed? Any answers on this as many of the directors post on this board

Raleigh, I would assume that the 100k share trades are proper trades, given the fixed amount of shares traded. On the point about new shares being issued -This is not reflected when the options vest & are traded. When the option plan is agreed and approved by the board, this is when the dilution takes place. Once approved the overall market cap of the company includes not only the shares issued, but the options issued. These option plans we agreed a few years ago.

Raleigh, Thats not the case. I was a director of an AIM listed company until 2019 and that exactly how the trades are registered when you purchase your shares that are vested options -they cant appear on the board as 1p transactions. Its highly unlikely that the NEDs would buy their own shares at these prices. They would all have share options which once vested they would purchase the shares at the notional price

Thanks for the insights. The directors deals data on AIM is wrong then. Must be that he transferred these to a family member and they dont keep a record of this.

Even small amounts, I assume that all the directors/insiders 'buy trades are options that have vested and are purchased. This company has a 60x multiple of revenue when the industry has a multiple of 7-12x. I'm very interested to understand how the CEO's shareholding went down from 24m shares to 19m shares without a declared transaction. Smart enough to offload them at this multiple.

Love this board. Always so optimistic. Helps that most of the posts are from employees too. Directors buys are typically not actual new share trades at market price, but their vested stock options that they are 'buying ' at a notional price. Interesting to see that the CEO's share holding have gone up (with options vesting) and down, with no sell trades recorded. Is this gifting of shares to family? I know Ian posts here, so possibly we can get some insights

Been keeping an eye on bird. The company is valued at something like 65 x revenue. Whilst shareholders are optimistic, there is a lot of catching up to do on the fundamentals and bird have to post £7m of revenue to deserve this valuation. They are currently at just over £1m.. The share price dropped to 7p last March, so there is quick exit on bad news. Eagerly awaiting their financial results to see where this will end up. Be good to understand other shareholder opinions out there that are based on some kind of fundamental analysis or insight. Thanks