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Has anyone noticed that Ian has update hi LinkedIn profile. It now reads like CV looking for a new position. Revised to be an entrepreneur that raises cash, resets strategy etc. From past experience when this happens the individual is marketing themselves for a new job. They have given up on the Blackbird product and strategy that has been driven for the last 5 years under Ian and now reinvented themselves as ElevateIO. Different market, user base, pricing model, marketing & sales model, etc. Wonder if his revision of his LinkedIn CV is a reflection of his belief in the new strategy. Thoughts?
Why would they raise £1m now. They have always been very astute at raising new capital from equity when their share price was pumped and peaked. They are absolutely brilliant at this. Raising £1m now, launching a premature beta product without the functionality and giving it away free, does not fill investors with confidence. They are going to struggle to raise the share price with hype messages only. This phase for them is now over I think. Too much of it. Its going to take real revenue growth to make a difference to the share price.
The 3m share buyback is very small. This is a relatively weak attempt to stop the share price from continually falling. At least the execs are doing something to halt the slide. Would have more impact if the execs bought share themselves as this would reflect confidence that the share price will move upwards from here
Poker, i think that this has always been their challenge. Larger organisations don't buy into their proprietary Codec. They all want Adobe/Avid etc which is part of the media ecosystem. Hence why customer still pay high prices for Adobe Premier Pro. At the bottom end of the market, there are hundreds of free editors, many of which are cloud based. So not a good place for Bird to be positioning. Also a volume play for low cost licences is a big change for a business selling b2b software. Sales, marketing, everything changes. It has to be sold off a website as the sales cost won't carry people costs. This is a very risky play
Giving up on the US listing as they are launching their new b2c product is a bit confusing. I would have thought they would have left this to well after the launch as it would ha e driven US visibility in investment markets. It makes no sense to cancel this now. They are also trying to keep it under the radar with the timing of the RNS. Maybe even the execs don't believe in this company anymore. New untested product, shift from b2b to b2c - this is a complete new offer to a new market. Reflects that they have given up on the old product. Goingbto need a lot more that fluffy announcements from Ian to get this back on track.
Snap in the US share price has doubled in the last month. They are measured on ad revenue. US is now a good benchmark on ad revenue company movement. SFOR will be on the move soon, especially with the view that inflation has now peaked. Interesting times
Race to the bottom here I think. They have given up on the b2b product completely. Have built a new b2c product and are hoping to launch. This is in effect a startup then, with no proven product market fit. This will take a while to validate. Enjoy reading the bs comparing the company to Figma. Insider pumpers . Good luck all. I'm out now and just taking the loss
Bird share price jumped 30% on the directors buys. We need some tangible revenue results and contract new wins. This has just drifted back to 7p now. Also complete lack of interest in this company now as the messages on this board have dried up
Looks like the 'distressed seller' got out at a good price. Revenue down 36% from last year. This is disastrous. Taking a lot of pain on this company. In my portfolio. Didn't expect their revenues to tank as badly. Come on pampers.. you know who you are. Let's get the BS going so I can exit reasonably from this mess.
Wow. Bird up 120% in the last month. They must finally be going to have a good trading update on new deals. I'm has been silent for quite a while now with the fluff posts. Finally expecting real deal updates coming soon. When do they provide their H1 trading update?
Good to see the share price moving, but its based on the market, not on any announcements or deals, so have to be cautious. Also I see the SVP Marketing has left. Can't be a good sign when the execs are leaving. Bird need some solid sales growth announcements to move up or there wil further downside to this price. When do the announce Q2 results?
Poker
Bird are cutting costs now as profitability is the main driver behind tech share prices and most tech companies have gone through headcount cuts and given their share prices a boost. This should happen here now, which is good. I'm sure they are not too worried about tax credits as they are carrying 10+ years of losses on their books. It's a concern that they are not closing deals. This sector has hotted up significantly over the past 6 months with broadcasters moving to cloud, but I expect Adobe, Lucid Link, Dalet, IPV, Iconik are the beneficiaries here. Be good to see them close some deals but hopefully next financial update with them closer to profitability will bump up the price.
Bird as still valued at about 12 Annual Recurring Revenue, so this is a high valuation. Market average is 6x at the moment. Their cash position is keeping the stock up, but they are burning more cash than their EBIT losses on an annual basis. Be interesting to see where this lands. Range between 3 - 10 I would think. And it would need to be based on super positive news of actual deals closing as there has been nothing posted about new wins. Still good volatility in the stock price to play with, but I don't think that the only way is up just yet. Good luck to all the actual investors here.
Wow, this is material, given that they had to announce to the market that they list the client. 'Less than 10% of revenue' must mean close to 10%. Given they are struggling for new business and don't have a flurry of new wins to announce this is going to be difficult to absorb. Good that they have cash, but typically this loss will be reflected in their share price as they are valued on a multiple of their ARR. Going to be an interesting financial update when they release their numbers.
The primary issue here is that Birds growth momentum is not there. ID has been pushing 'its all about the future' message for too long, without the results he was promising. This does not work to drive up the share price anymore as people have wised up. Which is a pity as the volatility made for great trading and was predictable enough. That said, even at this pri ce, they are still valued at over 10x recurring revenue, which is outstanding. They raised cash at a high price, so have done v well in managing their financials. This ride may be over u less they can actually get some decent sales traction. And Book some real revenues. Ian, take note as I know you are active on this board.
And it comes as a surprise that ARM won't list on LSE but chose NYSE. Volume is too low on the London market and the shorts have a field day manipulating. THG have been battered over the last 18 months. I would assume MM would take this private at this price and the only thing holding him back is his actual loyalty to shareholders. Real ones that is. That backed him pre IPO and since then
Is this just more hype to try to move the share price? We need to see a press release on actual deals done to make this move up. Ian should be providing regular information on deals won. The lack of this information feels like they are struggling to close new business. BtW- 10 years deals are terrible. Huge discounts for longer terms are expected by customers and there is no realistic price increase built in for every year. What we need a big short term deals that renew because the product is great. Recurring revenue tech companies are valued on a multiple of Annual Recurring Revenue, not their forward order book beyond a year.
Ian - we need an update on actual deals closed!
At this price. The current market cap is 16 x recurring revenue. Average valuations are around 7 x revenue at the moment. These guys are smart. They pumped the price up, raised more cash at a when the shares was 3 it s what it is now. Big bonuses can continue.
Poker,
Adobe are a product company primarily and acquire to close out product gaps. They already have the market leading editor, so this won't be on their radar and its unlikely the will acquire Bird to take them out as a threat(2.5m does not register).
My concerns as I noted before is that there is a lot of effort to influence the share price through sentiment, rather than put more effort, cash, sales heads etc into lead generation and deals. There is only so many times you can state that big deals are on the horizon and this has been going on for 3 years. Are the exec LTIPS based on the share price rather than revenue? As an insider, possibly you can share?
What I like about the stock is the volatility, so long may that last . As a long term investment I'm not sure this is a great punt. Look at the past 3 years as its underwhelming. And the positioning of unknown deals that can't be announced as well not being reflected in revenue - you have to question the credibility of the hype.
Just my view on this.