Member Info for Mikey279

Been watching this one dip for a while

£18m PBT and 5% organic growth FY23, for currently under £100m. that's a P/E of around 5/6x.... which is incredible

Should really be at 10-15x , so SP range should be between £2-£3.50

The SAYE scheme exercises are at £3

Covid related disruptions should be done, macro backdrop is across all sectors

Can only imagine there's been a few big sellers without much buying interest

Should get a full year update in May, let's see if dividend exists

All IMO

Bare in mind....there is no 'risk' as the asset is there and reserves are proven, funded and farmout talks with multiple serious parties for the last ready north sea play, £78m mcap? lol

Now that the minute traders are done....let's see a real re-rate, this goes to £4-5 before a farm out IMO, only 33m shares in issue

It's all to do with the US senators article on the acquisition I'm sure...

Importance of research before buying

All IMO

Year highs means blue skies....still around 3-4x under NAV at current oil prices

All IMO

This re-rates significantly from here IMO, its the last north sea play....Ithaca Energy bought the other two for $1.5bn a few weeks back, and guess where our CFO came from

What's our NAV at current oil prices.... £10+?

All IMO

Just a matter of when.... around a conservative £6 NAV based on $65 per barrel...

Don’t want to sound like a dirty ramper but:

AP with 10%
Struck big with the most valuable resource on earth
currently
Relatively safe jurisdiction with proximity to Europe
Sky high gas prices
Massive green side projects
Derisk of wider area
50% increase of column
Funded

Now Soc Gen to assist DEBT financing

This is £1+ without further drilling IMO

Will probably be sold before it reaches full potential, wasn’t it £4+ unrisked in a note I read somewhere?

Genuinely wouldn’t be surprised to see £1+ this year

Monster asset, right place right time

All IMO

How did they hit TD 16 days into a 26 day drill without any mention of being ahead of schedule?

The gas clouds, lack of SP movement and late selling yesterday.....all stinks tbh

just normal trading... 13m mcap for an 85m pipeline 15-16m revenue for FY and EBITDA positive, 5.5m cash at end of last year and now the Telefonica contacts

Placing was at 25p too

Dirt cheap IMO

Hope you know it's a not a case of 110m per day... it takes longer the deeper it gets, 10 days or so until TD as they were 'on schedule'

Not to say oil can't be hit sooner though...

IMO

no-deramp....just an explanation

Could be the NCYT news affecting the SP....? what if DHSC counter claim and drag it out like they're doing there

Predictable...double digits is only a £30m mcap lol

Grades and strikes seem quite significant for 17mcap.... should run quite a bit from here, more results to come, cashed up, Australia....

Lost for words

IMO

Not sure why everyone's expecting news next week based on DRILLING SPEED as we wont reach TD until week after, the drilling slows down towards the end....HOWEVER, because the gas clouds were found a lot earlier, there's a chance that we see some of the black gold sooner.... ;)

IMO

GL all, should hear something next week

On the extremes the downside is probably around 3-4p....but gas sale would take it back to around 7-8p

Upside conservatively....50p on strike, all the way up to £1 or so if P10 as well as de-risking topaz etc etc

so 50% downside vs 10x + upside (if you stick around for topaz) so around 20-1 odds, not bad for the biggest drill in recent times

The gas clouds help a bit I must say

All IMO

Generally quite illiquid, but looking at buying vs selling today suggests a big seller, Lionstrust were adding at £4 just 2 weeks ago and £7 a few months back,

Slight profit warning due to wider retail for H1 but competitors would be suffering the same IMO, complete steal at £54m ...just a 5x multiple (down from 12x from the January expectations which were missed by £1m)

Should be nearer £4-5 and back over £10 in longer run once supply chain fixes itself IMO

Sitting duck currently

They missed revenue by 1% and ebitda came in 1m lower than expectations (12m vs 11m as announced in january TU....where SP was still around £6), somehow drifted down to high £3s.... and MMs whack on another 25% today?

Way way over done IMO