The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"I am pleased to report we have made significant strides forward with several of the large-scale, long-term managed services airports and ports opportunities, each of which would, when secured, provide multi-million-pound step changes in annual revenues.
In our 2022 Annual Report published in June 2023 we stated we could potentially secure one or maybe two new large-scale manage services contracts in 2023. The outcome and timing of these complex projects are never certain, particularly in a challenging world environment, however, whilst we did not manage to finalise contracts in 2023, we have made important progress and from current activity and discussions underway we do expect secure these and potentially other such contracts in 2024."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WSG/interim-results-xlz7z1q0rg4v4au.html
DRC contract is worth ZERO, will cost the company just over 1 million in loss.
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Interesting.... care to back that up with a calculation?
https://www.wob.com/en-gb/books/tony-levene/investing-for-dummies/9780764570230?cq_src=google_ads&cq_cmp=18059580451&cq_con=&cq_med=pla&cq_plac=&cq_net=x&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzcDsgqu6hQMVhJJQBh0ZtQIREAYYASABEgI-pPD_BwE#GOR001269128
This might help.
$10M= £8M
£8M at 50% operating margin = £4M EBITDA
330m shares= circa 0.013p/share
10 p/e= circa 12-13p share
UNKOWN... cash/debt to service contract...UNKOWN,... discount market will apply until first revenues start to be banked and risk attached to region..?
GLR....... historically the operating margin on the MSC's has been circa 50%..... , we have a training lemon t here too,.. so we are really holding their hand to get the security up to. top notch standard to attract more international carriers. I doubt the margins will be less than 50%, given the above.
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WSG/signing-of-10-year-5-airport-drc-contract-3nwuzeopp6qckap.html
Contracts were officially signed today during the UK - DRC Trade and Investment Mission, at a formal ceremony in Kinshasa by board representatives of both Westminster and the airport authority, La Regie Des Voies Aeriennes ('RVA'), in the presence of various government officials and dignitaries including Lord Popat, the UK Prime Minister's Trade Envoy; John Humphrey, His Majesty's Trade Commissioner for Africa; HE Alyson King OBE, HM Ambassador to the DRC; and HE Ndolamb Ngokwey, Ambassador of the DRC to the United Kingdom.
The contract, which is for an initial period of 10 years, with a five-year renewal thereafter, is to provide comprehensive ground security operations, initially at four international airports and one national airport in the DRC.
Westminster will provide all the investment and expertise required to upgrade security at the airports. This not only includes the provision of advanced detection, surveillance, and screening equipment, but also the maintenance, training and various support services required to ensure DRC's airport security is run to the highest international standards. This enhancement in airport security will assist the authorities in DRC in developing and maintaining world-class airport security services, opening up the potential for growth in air traffic by attracting new international carriers and commercial enterprises to the region.
As part of the programme, Westminster will also be establishing an aviation security training academy to provide certified training to international standards for all aviation security ('AVSEC') staff within the country, ensuring that DRC's AVSEC staff are amongst the best trained, motivated, and valued in the entire region.
The contract is based on Westminster's managed services model successfully deployed elsewhere in Africa. Revenues will be driven by embarking passenger numbers using the airports and funded by a per passenger fee, denominated in US$, collected through the ticketing system and payable directly to Westminster by the airlines or a suitable collection agency such as the International Air Transport Association ('IATA'). Based on current international embarking passenger levels, the contract is expected to generate revenues of circa US$10m in the first 12 months of operation. In addition, there is an opportunity under the contract for further revenues, in due course, from domestic traffic and cargo screening operations.
The contract includes a 90-day transition period to allow for operational planning and recruitment processes to be completed. Operations and revenues are therefore expected to formally commence in July 2024, although Westminster will immediately deploy its transition team to commence planning, recruitment, training, procurement and logistics.
Initial funding for the project will be from Westminster's own resourc
... after such a large and sustained rise,... a little retrace is inevitable,... some people will be 100-150% in just a few days. To be honest, .. I was expecting some pullback--- an if it stays at only 8% I would suggest that is very modest. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this finished blue.
It's a two day visit to DRC by the UK Envoys,... so today is the final day,.... and I presume that they would be 'in the room', with WSG for the signing, assuming it does happen.
Fingers crossed for an exciting RNS tomorrow,... or my guess would be Monday.
Best
.... and finishing 6% up. 4 or 5 days of solid gains with no sell-off and fall back. All looking good .... UK envoys in DRC and presenting today and tomorrow, as per Linton's x link posted earlier today. So all going as planned and flagged in recent company Interims.
Best, M
MasterB... yes Martyn's law will be a new, a repeat, business opportunity,... you only have to look at the recent terrorist attack in Moscow... to realise the importance of this law,.. which comes in to place in 2024.
Best, M
Txs Linton.-
So if it is going to be ratified on this visit,.. it will most happen during this two day trade envoy visit,..ie today for tomorrow... and then we will await the WSG RNS...... could happen this week?.. or Monday RNS?
Either way,..not long. Happy for the sp to bob around 3-4p,.... until it drops. Then who knows,... I guess it will depend on the actual deal secured,... timing of commencement and deals of funding. - presume the market perception of the DRC contract and value will involve some form of risk factor, given the region,...-- but would still open to see head north of 6p in short order. Has been an exciting week,... thus far,... and more to come! Been a while since I was up and checking for an RNS at 7am--!
Ian,... good spot,... those figures for departures/pax are just N'Djili International Airport.- 2014 were the pre-covid figures and can't see any official numbers for years since then. Our Sierra Leone project, numbers have recovered and are now above at record levels. Hopefully the same here in DRC,... but political instability in country may impact on that,.. so not necessarily a fair comparison. If is is above 1M pax that is good news,... and as you say,.. the terminals have room for substantial increase in volume. Best, M.
2014 - pre covid numbers:
DEPARTURE FIGURE--- on which are revenue is based.
International- 244,000 x $55/passenger = $13.42M
Domestic - 144,00 x $10/pasenger= $1.44M
Total Revenue= $14,860M
That is country statistics and DRC has circa 30 airports,... some commercial, some military some freight. But if you look at the individual airports and stats.. you will see that the series passenger traffic comes from a limited number or airports... look at the airport carriers using each airport to validate this.
If you assume that WSG will screen circa 65% of the departure traffic via the 5 airports that they will 'manage'... that equates to revenue of circa $9,659. NOW... that won't all go to WSG,... the government will want a share, we assume,.. as will the company on the ground which will be providing the day to day operation, managed by WSG.
If we assume circa 60%,.. would go to WSG .. that is $5.988M,.. which at $1.2/£1=£4.9M
We tend to have a decent profit margin of between 50-60% on our managed contracts ( refer to previous years accounts)... and if we apply 54%.. the most recent figure... that would suggest WSG will show a EBITDA profit of £2.7M/annum.
ie 330m shares= 0.008 eps and 8p a share on a p/e of 10.
So my reckoning is that the DRC contract,.. adds circa 8p to the sp,...--
As I said before...... just putting those thoughts out there for anybody to come back gone.
Good luck the LTH's and the newbies.
Best