ChattyGPT analysis30 Jul 2025 08:09
To estimate what this deal might be worth in pounds, we need to break down the figures given in the MOU announcement and apply some market pricing assumptions.
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🔹 Key Deal Figures (from the MOU):
Feedstock supplied: up to 120,000 tonnes per year
Output products:
40,000 tonnes per year of esterified bioliquid
80,000 tonnes per year of biodiesel
Assume the products are sold at typical wholesale prices:
Product Quantity Estimated Price per Tonne Annual Revenue (GBP)
Biodiesel 80,000t ~£1,000 £80 million
Esterified Bioliquid 40,000t ~£700–£900 ~£28–£36 million
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🔹 Estimated Total Annual Revenue
Low estimate: £80M + £28M = £108 million/year
High estimate: £80M + £36M = £116 million/year
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🔹 Five-Year Value of the Deal
Multiply the annual estimate by 5 (assuming full capacity & stable pricing):
Low case (conservative): ~£540 million
High case: ~£580 million
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🔹 80 Mile’s Economic Interest
80 Mile owns 49% of Greenswitch.
So their look-through share of total revenue over 5 years is:
> ~£265M to £285M (GBP) gross potential revenue.
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⚠️ Notes:
This is not profit — just potential revenue from the offtake.
Actual profitability depends on:
Margin (processing, transport, operating costs)
Conversion of the MOU to binding
Financing (grants, debt)
Plant utilisation and efficiency
Let me know if you’d like a DCF (discounted cash flow) version or net profit estimate based on margin assumptions.