RE: FRES On Verge Of Breakout........15 Jan 2015 18:49
Borrowed from across the road thanks go to Harry.
Part of the Numis note today:
"We revise our recommendations and target prices on the back of our new commodity price forecasts. Our ongoing caution on the mining sector appears well founded as price plunges continue unabated. 2015 looks set for another year of pain as a headwind of weak prices bite into company profits, despite some saving grace from lower oil and other input costs. As we highlighted in our last sector piece, downgrades, cost cuts, dividends and asset revaluations are likely to be atheme through this year as miners struggle to operate in a lower price environment.
On a longer term view, there is value to be had by sticking to quality names and avoiding risk, perceived or otherwise. We continue to recommend a more defensive stance with Acacia, Fresnillo and Petra our picks.
● Growth, Quality & Management. We stick with our defensive criteria; we move Acacia to a pick, replacing a fully-valued Randgold, a quality company which still has to prove its stripes, but has potential for high reward. The share price has been strong and looks overbought at these levels but we see plenty of room to deliver. Alongside Fresnillo and Petra, these all have superior growth profiles to counteract flat to falling commodity prices, high quality assets to weather any downturn and strong management to deliver on business plans. We have no copper pick given price headwinds, limited growth and short term challenges. Berkeley and Highfield are our favoured juniors, with quality projects in excellent jurisdictions and recovering commodities. Many other covered stocks have attractive investment opportunities but in subdued commodities which are struggling to see a positive price response.