Member Info for Mickey2099

Does anyone have a view on the impact if Qube is were trying to fully close out their short of 2.5mln shares?

Not sure what the daily volume is in PFC and how easy that would be to close out without causing a spike.

Any views welcomed.

That’s very encouraging indeed. Thanks for posting.

Does make you wonder. Too co-incidental. What would that suggest?

..just checked out Alice’s LinkedIn post again and looks like the words ‘record breaking’ have been taken out. I reckon that’s considered market sensitive info.

Very encouraging update. I like the vertically integrated channel and will bring additional opportunities and revenues. It is good to see continued corporate activity here.

Yes a new reportable position…hard to see whether they’ve increased over the .5% threshold.

Interesting that another manager, Naya, actually decreased on the same day, and they’ve had a long term short position and were increasing their short back in late Oct.

Must be very expensive to borrow shares in this name. Euroclear indicated circa 10% borrowed at end of Oct. One piece of good news could see a very dramatic uptick. I cannot pretend to fully understand the tech but the read out from industry people does paint for a differentiated product and promising developments in chiplets etc.

Any chartists out there care to take a view?

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:10&year=eq:2021&limit=1&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation

Shares on loan as at end of Oct were approx. 10%. Not sure if that’s of free float or not, bearing in mind there’s circa 25% of free float available. Either way, seems an incredibly large amount on loan, quite a gamble for those that are short I’d suggest.

Industry commentators are very positive on the tech here…and that’s who I listen to.

I didn’t know that. Financial should know this and refer to all shorts vs. totalling only those only > 0.5%. Sloppy journalism at best.

Why do you think there’s a disparity between short tracker vs Euroclear? I’m wondering whether there’s something opaque about a short at Euroclear eg. their supplying shorts from an internal pool of long client positions, call that intra client borrowing.

Fair analysis and judgement. Thanks.

To be clear BR are performing a fire sale…that’s not necessarily a reflection on the company. Clear?

Super tempted given the drop and broker targets…but nagging doubt that that’s rarely served well. Having said that a fire sale is a fire sale…can produce for a bargain, assuming for a forced seller ie. % exposure exceeds policy and lock up period allows them to pare down. Any thoughts?

Without doubt £23m + £44mln would be a fantastic result. The refinancing statement is clearly a requirement to support Petrofac’s claim of using all reasonable means to pay a maximum fine. All great news…just needs to happen that way come Monday.

For what it’s worth I think you’re spot on. I reckon they’ll be quick to announce contracts and clients over the coming weeks along with fast tracking a Q3 update. Shorter should take the profit while they can.

This share perplexes me. Anyone care to share an opinion on the volatility (mostly expressed downwards)? Quoted 3.40/50 this AM. Where did that come from?

If I’m honest the lack of director buying is the single most disappointing thing. I would’ve thought the new CFO would’ve made a purchase. Any thoughts on why Sep is a more optimal time for them to buy?

Having said that last year the share price really took after Sep so perhaps this is a naturally quiet period in the cadence of the business year. I suspect opportunities elsewhere is causing lack of new investment and people divesting from here. I don’t think the actual business and investing case has changed here so the boredom has provided for greater potential value.

Really does augur well for AWE. Differentiated IP tech and fully licenced. Mind boggles what a future value is on this. If I take Barclays quote below, £4.75 target but upside of £6.50. However, I think today’s results exceeds Barclays upside baseline (55% margin vs. 50% and Rev growth of 125% vs. 62 accepting that’s an average to 2025….so further upgrades on the way to that £6.50 number in my view. Anyone see that?

We forecast Alphawave to grow revenue organically by 62% [compound annual growth rate from] 2020-25, with EBITDA margins expanding from c50% to the mid-60%s, thereby delivering 70% CAGR in EBITDA”, Barclays said.

We think such growth warrants a premium valuation, but at current levels it only trades at the low end of peers… We think it reasonable for Alphawave to trade at least at a slight premium to much slower-growing peers”, the bank added.

Barclays said that should all of the company’s growth drivers hit, the share price could “near-double” to 650p.

I really like this comment made by the Exec Chair today:

He said shortages in the semiconductor sector was more of an opportunity than a headwind, largely because the licences Alphawave were selling were for technology that would not go into production for several years.

"As a result of chip shortages, more countries and more companies are investing in new foundries," he said. "This investment in new foundry capacity is an opportunity for us."

I’d be more worried if it were down on high volume.

A little shake out post a circa 10% rise strikes me as not unusual (smokes out the 10% short termers) and sets a new higher low to rise from.