Flow Rates9 Nov 2025 09:46
As a layman I asked ChatGPT what flow rates from Dubhe1 would be deemed as commercial. Whilst there are a number of factors for your reading this is what was returned.
Good question — short answer first, then concise worked examples and a simple economic check so you can judge commerciality for Dubhe-1 (5,200 ft lateral, 25 stages).
Short answer:
For a 5,200 ft lateral with 25 plug-and-perf stages, a practical commercial target would typically be in the ~500–1,000 barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) range (IP30/IP60 basis), i.e. ~20–40 bbl/d per stage (or ~0.096–0.192 bbl/ft). Below ~300–400 bbl/d you’re usually in a marginal zone unless CapEx/opex and access to processing are unusually cheap. Above ~1,000 bbl/d you’re clearly in strong/commercial territory for most onshore projects — especially from an AIM-listed explorer where single well results drive valuation.
Why that range? It balances:
• the long lateral (5,200 ft) where per-ft productivity expectations are higher,
• the relatively large number of stages (25 → ~200 ft/stage) meaning per-stage contribution matters,
• typical well economics / payback logic (illustrated below).
How to evaluate using the figures you gave
Use these simple metrics and formulas. Replace the example numbers with actual reported numbers.
Key metrics & formulas
• Oil per stage (bbl/d/stage) = Oil rate (bbl/d) ÷ # stages
• Oil per foot (bbl/d/ft) = Oil rate (bbl/d) ÷ Lateral length (ft)
• BOE/day = Oil bbl/d + (Gas mcf/d ÷ 6)
• Gross revenue/day ≈ Oil bbl/d × Oil price ($/bbl) + Gas mcf/d × Gas $/mcf
• Net cashflow/day (approx) ≈ Gross revenue/day − (royalty & transport & opex)
• Simple payback (days) ≈ Well CAPEX ÷ Net cashflow/day
Worked example scenarios (accurate arithmetic)
Lateral = 5,200 ft; stages = 25.
1. Low / marginal case — 300 bbl/d
• Per stage = 300 ÷ 25 = 12 bbl/d per stage
• Per foot = 300 ÷ 5,200 = 0.0577 bbl/d per ft
• At $80/bbl and assuming net (after royalty/opex) ~$60/bbl → net/day = 300×60 = $18,000
• If well CAPEX ≈ $8,000,000 → payback ≈ 8,000,000 ÷ 18,000 ≈ 444 days (~1.2 years).
Interpretation: marginally viable if infrastructure and processing available; higher risk.
2. Mid / target commercial case — 800 bbl/d
• Per stage = 800 ÷ 25 = 32 bbl/d per stage
• Per foot = 800 ÷ 5,200 = 0.1538 bbl/d per ft
• Net/day (assume $60/bbl) = 800×60 = $48,000
• Payback on $8M CAPEX = 8,000,000 ÷ 48,000 ≈ 167 days (~0.46 years).
Interpretation: economically attractive; would normally be considered clearly commercial in many onshore plays.
3. High / very commercial case — 1,500 bbl/d
• Per stage = 1,500 ÷ 25 = 60 bbl/d per stage
• Per foot = 1,500 ÷ 5,200 = 0.2885 bbl/d per ft
• Net/day (assume $60/bbl) = 1,500×60 = $90,000
• Payback on $8M = 8,000,000 ÷ 90,000 ≈ 89 days (~0.24 years).
Interpretation: excellent — immediate commerciality and str