focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I quite like the presentation brief and no fancy waffle - doesn't say much apart from:-
- P8 looks like a good bet and a decision will be reached in roughly the next 2 months (under the current circumstances I doubt there would be much resistance from the regulator so I expect this will go ahead unless outstanding M&A opportunity presents itself)
- there are a companies out there with good assets but not enough cash to complete development, and we may well do a deal with one (or more) of these that will quickly be accretive to shareholder value
Looks like the next 3 months will be very interesting (and hopefully rewarding) for those that choose to buy or hold.
I believe that the company now has a very clear commercial strategy as follows (soonest first):-
1. Commercial partnerships for GlymAb in the Avidimab and ADC / CAR space (I'd expect deals in 3Q/4Q this year)
2. Assuming good Covidity results and SCIB1 results, sell or partner the immunity platform (worth several hundred million plus royalties)
3. Assuming good Modi 1 results partner Modi1 (depending on how good the results are could be worth up to a billion plus royalties)
4. Take Modi2 into the clinic and partner after phase 1 (again could could be very big money)
5. Take the TBC's through phase 1 and possibly further - once proven, partner these for big money
6. After this it will be a case of taking further products into the clinic and partnering once proven
Of course if Modi1 is successful we may start getting some very big take over offers (i.e. several billion) covering the entire set of platforms, so Scancell may not even exist by the end of 2023.
Certainly sounds like there are specific opportunities being looked at Johnny, rather than just wishy washy aspirations to establish commercial partnerships. Looks like they have decided to do the TCB in house and enter into partnerships for ADC and CAR - seems like a good strategy to get all 3 models running with early cash generation form ADC/CAR whilst maximising the return they will get on TCB's (which I guess they see as the most valuable).
Good spot. Maybe we'll see something announced sooner rather than later.
Indeed researcher1 - it also validates the model that AN has described (a small number of large Pharma customers can generate a large number of contracts), and illustrates that CTC analysis must be adding value to the customer's existing trial.
We've been a lot higher the the PoO was lower, and a lower when the PoO was higher so the connection between HUR sp and PoO seems tenuous ?
My random guess is that there is a big overlap between people who invest in oilers and people who invest in crypto, and the crypto sell off is causing these folks to sell off their oilers to cover their crypto margin calls.
Today's RNS seems to have been a slow burner a folks cottoned on to the underlying implications regarding:-
- pharmajet and covidity trial showing good results (pharmajet could only be considered to be working well if the immunological response for the vaccine was good)
- SCIB1 proving beneficial (hence worth progressing the new cohort)
Hopefully the momentum will continue as more investors realise the implications of todays RNS.
2 more after the close. Maybe this are the end of the big seller ? Looking forward to the production update in the next couple of days - have we maintained production at circa 9000 bpd ???
Possibly also indicates that early efficacy data from the SCIB1 trail is positive and hence worth progressing....
Lindy looked very happy on yesterdays Proactive interview and went out of her way to reference both the SCOPE and COVIDITY trials - would she have done this if signs from those trials weren't favourable ?
Maybe Lindy communicated more yesterday than just the words she used...
Given the apparent stabilisation of production at about 9000 bpd there could be several years of good production ahead of us. The complexity of assessing the amount of oil in a fractured basement reservoir makes forecasting very difficult.
Courtesy of Andrew Smith on Telegram:-
My notes on reimbursement:-
From the 29 April 2021 presentation:
Ian Griffiths mentioned "There are existing reimbursement codes that we should be able to utilise, so this is about building the case for higher reimbursement later down the line"
From a Finncap note of 28 October 2020 re ovarian:
"ANGLE will be able to sell to clinicians directly in the first instance for private payers. ANGLE will also be able to generate additional data to facilitate discussions with payers in respect of dedicated reimbursement codes for Parsortix clinical applications. A company cannot apply for a reimbursement code in the US (CPT code) until the test is being offered. Offering the test as an LDT enables a reimbursement code to be secured ahead of subsequent FDA cleared product tests. "
"assuming a c.$1,000 test (similar to Aspira Women’s Health’s OVA-1 and OVERA tests which have weaker performance that Parsortix but CPT reimbursement prices of $897 and $950, respectively)."
From Jefferies note of 19 January 2022:
“Although it will likely take time to build commercial revenues from clinical use, reflecting the need to secure reimbursement and, ideally, inclusion in cancer treatment guidelines, FDA clearance is likely to accelerate all forms of adoption, in our view, driving utilisation in research, plus uptake in pharmaceutical drug trials and by contract research organisations (CROs) as the gold standard means for collecting CTCs for subsequent analysis”
“We assume the Parsortix PMT test is eventually priced at a premium to Aspira Women's Health FDA-approved OVA1 test, which has CMS reimbursement of $897”
“We assume a conservative ramp, reflecting the time taken to build awareness and secure reimbursement codes and coverage, with ANGLE at least initially reliant on private pay, plus the possibility of leveraging OVA1's reimbursement code, until securing its own code after perhaps 2-3 years. Initial referrals are likely to predominate from the Wilmot Cancer Institute as ANGLE builds awareness.”
From the results and webinar of 1 August 2019
the regulatory process is "very long" [now done]. After that there is the need to get reimbursement codes and arrangements with payers. Then to get in the Na