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@SpadesAspade - Yes, and I stand by that.
They may have been able to drive the price down in order to get a better placing price to go long on. However, unless there are sellers in the market how will they be able to close their short positions?
@Gold4U - and you call me naive.
All you can do is whinge about change in strategy based on the successful outcome from the 5% negotiations. Situations in business change and decent managers react to them, which is exactly what SD has done.
Yes, he may have been prepared for it, but to get the bookbuild moved forward (as I said implemented) in 5 days is quite an achievement.
Anyway, I'll let you go on with your bickering and moaning as that will achieve so much more than sitting back and fully considering the situation.
For anybody disgruntled with the placing share price, you need to take a step back and consider the circumstances.
1. SD was totally broadsided by the fact that NCM did not take up the 5% option, therefore providing us with an additional $60M towards capex funding. Yes other funding would still have been required, however, he may have been able to get this purely via bank debt.
2. In a fair and equitable world the SP should have re-rated from the 5% announcement by approx 20% (less the $60M), it did not due to the shorts being in control, and no buyers being present due to the phase of the project. The SP was in continuous decline until funding was secured.
SD has been able to implement this placing package in less than 5 days (just think about that). Thus avoiding further SP reduction and a lower placing price.
Yes, we would have all liked a higher placing price, but circumstances did not allow. He needed to act quickly, he did. All credit to him for that.
I would also like to highlight that the fact this is a selected II bookbuild only is a good thing. All of these new shares will be subject to restrictions, and unavailable for sale for 90 Days. This will hopefully take us past the FS, and any of the participating II's will be unlikely to sell after this.
People stating that the shorters will have an easy out are misguided. There will be no new shares available on the market for them to purchase, that is unless PI's decide to sell on this news. IMHO this is highly unlikely, in fact more are likely to use any reduction in the SP as an opportunity to top up.
@Jambo813 - Perhaps a little perspective is needed, so you are not all doom and gloom. I posted this on the other sites yesterday .....
To put the NCM 5% decision into a little perspective.
Over the next 5-10 Years Havieron will contribute less than 10% of NCM's average annual gold production.
If they took up the 5% for $60M, it would have added less than 1% to their average annual gold production.
Although we saw them taking up this option as a no brainer (and it would have given them significant returns over the lifetime of the mine), NCM can easily justify not spending the $60M for such a small increase in their annual gold production.
Havieron is a god send to NCM, and the saviour of Telfer, but in the scheme of things the 5% is miniscule to them, but an additional 20% to us.
Perhaps all in all the decision was best for both parties.
Little change - up to 18p
https://sprott.com/media/5604/220819-ggp-scp-mre.pdf
@Zoros - So you follow condescending diatribe, with an apology for it, then follow that up with more condescending diatribe, and continue with the holier than thou attitude. Congratulations!
You have obviously have not believed the short topic to be an issue from the start, and therefore, done absolutely no analysis of it. Yet you are prepared to dismiss it blindly.
The principal short started on September 16th 2020, 2 years not 3 years ago. From the initial position the short has increased 4 fold to over 88 million now, in that time the share price has decreased by more than 50%. Additionally, if you had done any analysis you would realise that 30-40% of all shares transacted in 2022 are related to the shorts. Without these the low volume this year would have been a trickle. No one is selling any volume (apart from you know who), and the SP has continued to decline.
Some may ask why September 2020, well that was when we were first added to the GDXJ, and the price spiked, additionally PI's continued to jump in on the continuous SP rise and the Scallywag hype, and GGP hit its all time high of 38p. Yes the price had probably got ahead of itself, and possibly good reason for shorts to be opened. However, the SP has now retraced to pre GDXJ days, when the market cap was just under $600M (mentioned by MrEMC2 in relation to the 2020 AGM), so why do they continue to increase the number on loan. Especially when everybody knows we have had 2 MRE's, confirmation of an ever growing ore body (via numerous fantastic drill results), and the possibility of GGP finding another elephant. It does not add up, which I could also say about your determination that 11-12p is currently fair value.
The share price is being supressed for some reason, it would be good to know why, and perhaps we will find out on day. In the meantime I guess we will have simply wait for Newcrests next resource release, and all of the other fantastic news coming out of the company.
All at a supposed fair value of 11-12p!
N.B. Ortex has spent thousands upon thousands of pounds updating security on their application, in order to prevent us from downloading and analysing data related to the shorts. This might not be solely down to issues raised related to GGP, but I do find it some what of a coincidence.
Please see related thread on GGPChat
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=164
Despite all the bickering and doom mongering, there is so much going on in the background. The creation of the "mine" is progressing at great speed.
https://www.der.wa.gov.au/our-work/licences-and-works-approvals/lwa-applications/item/16861-w6691-2022-1
https://www.der.wa.gov.au/our-work/licences-and-works-approvals/lwa-available-for-public-appeal/item/16761-l6079-1988-13
Newcrest had their report to amend the license for Telfer approved on the 7th June 2022.
@Spratt1982 - That is incorrect, this was clarified in the Interim Results released in March.
Contingently issuable shares
(i) As disclosed on 26 September 2016, as part of the acquisition of the Havieron Project, the Company entered into a purchase agreement with Pacific Trends Resources Pty Ltd (as assigned) for an upfront payment of £13,500 in cash and 65,490,000 fully paid ordinary shares in the Company, and a deferred payment of 145,530,000 fully paid ordinary shares in the Company contingent on:
§ a bankable feasibility study having been completed and a decision to mine having been made on Havieron; or
§ the Company assigning 75% or more of its right or interest in Havieron to an unrelated third party.