Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
From Mining Journal:
China battery-grade lithium carbonate pricing rose 2.1% in the first two weeks of November to an average RMB195,250 per tonne (US$30,650/t), representing a 345.9% rise year-to-date.
Lithium hydroxide EXW China crept up 0.5% to an average RMB190,000/t (US$29,825/t), a 265.7% rise this year.
The prices recently surpassed previous peaks set in 2018, according to Benchmark data, as supply battles to keep up with demand.
Fellow price-tracker Fastmarkets index manager Peter Hannah said earlier this month the market was not merely at the precipice of a supply deficit but might have already lost its footing.
Benchmark said downstream demand persisted and China's electric vehicle sales broke records for the fifth consecutive month, approaching 400,000 units in October.
https://www.mining-journal.com/energy-minerals-news/news/1421530/lithium-prices-steady-at-record-highs
From the Mining Journal below, price keeps on rising.
At the precipice of lithium supply deficit: Fastmarkets
Lithium and cobalt prices have continued to rise in recent weeks as demand for the battery materials shows no sign of slowing
..Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said its Lithium Price Index moved up 25.2% month-on-month in October, "surpassing its peak during the 2017/18 price cycle for the first time, given international pricing's step up towards prices observed in the Chinese spot market".
Its weighted average lithium carbonate price was US$23,154/t and $24,372/t for lithium hydroxide.
The link did not work but look up Fox-Davies Capital on Linked In to find the research note.
Some text below - DYOR
Valuation
FDC has valued TWL at £255M using a 10% discount rate, an average £: US$ exchange rate of 1.42 and a life of mine tungsten price of US$270/mtu. This is an after tax figure but unfunded. These are very conservative assumptions, yet the mine still gives some of the best returns of any of the projects we have viewed recently. In 2018 the average price of tungsten was US$304/mtuand we ran the model at this price. It yielded an NPV of £294M and an IRR of 65%. Spot prices are currently $320/mtu.
Cash costs in lowest quartile
After allowing conservatively for by-products credits FDC believe that the cash cost of producing a mtu of WO3will be US$107/mtu, in the bottom quartile of global cash cost curve. This is illustrated on page 20 of this initiation report where the Argus Media global cost curve is reproduced. The FDC estimate for cash costs will be US$107permtu but the calculation uses a strong sterling exchange rate and very conservative aggregate sales. If sterling is weaker, tungsten recoveries higher, the tin price stronger and aggregate sales take-off, a possibility if a conveyor belt is built to the railway line, then cash costs could potentially turn negative.
Well worth reading the research note by Fox-Davies.
FDC has valued TWL at £255M using a 10% discount rate, an average sterling: US$ exchange rate of 1.42and a life of mine tungsten price of US$270/mtu. The IRR on these assumptions is 57%. Thes eare very conservative assumptions, yet the mine still gives some of the best returns of any of the projects we have viewed recently.
Current market cap of £108M (177M shares x £0.61) therefore potential for share price to grow significantly. The team have done well and I expect that to continue.
Surely Zinnwald has received plenty of interest in potential off-take agreements.. More news from Vulcan on their off-takes and I thought that was still a long way from demonstrated production, let's hope the brines keep flowing for them! I will stick with convention hard rock lithium at Zinnwald.
Mining Journal: The fledgling lithium chemicals firm already has binding offtake agreements with LG Energy Solution and Renault Group, and has just announced a five-year agreement for the delivery of between 28,000-42,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide from 2025.
The buyer, Umicore, is in the final stages of switching on its plant at Nysa, Poland, which it intends will be a carbon neutral operation, selling materials to battery cell makers.
The agreement with Umicore can be extended by a further five years and covers about 20% of Vulcan's planned output.
Mining Journal reports on new peak prices:
Price reporting and research agency Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said in its mid-October update EXW China lithium hydroxide was approaching US$30,000 per tonne, well above the 2018 peak of $25,000/t.
It gained 16.3% in the past fortnight, up almost 253% year-to-date, to an average RMB183,250/t ($28,400/t).
Meanwhile battery-grade carbonate EXW China rose 15.6% over the last two weeks to an average RMB185,000/t ($28,675/t), representing a year-to-date gain of 322%, according to Benchmark.
Strong carbonate demand from cathode manufacturers was keeping the price margin between the chemicals narrow, the agency said.
"Benchmark expects continued volatility in the price relationship between carbonate and hydroxide due to flexibility to interchange between carbonate and hydroxide production at newer conversion facilities in China," it said.
LGES to purchase 5000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide from the Zero Carbon lithium project in Germany in the first year of production, ramping up to 10,000 tonnes per year from years 2-5.
The agreement is for an initial five-year term which can be extended by a further five years, with start of commercial delivery set for 2025.
Argonaut Securities analyst George Ross said given battery grade lithium hydroxide has been trading at a spot price of about US$14,000 per tonne, the first 5000t of product would be valued at $70 million.
"Signing of this deal is consistent with our previous assertion that low-carbon sources of EV related metals (nickel, copper, lithium etc) will be increasingly sought after by OEMs," he said.
The Zero Carbon lithium project, in Germany's Upper Rhine Valley, hosts Europe's largest lithium resource of 15.85 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent.
Vale halts Onca Puma as licence suspended
Vale has started the process to halt its Onca Puma nickel operation after Brazil’s environmental regulator suspended its operating licence due to alleged non-compliance.
The department cited an unfulfilled obligation to provide services for communities surrounding the mine, including setting up a fibre optics network and a health unit, in a statement to Reuters...
https://www.mining-journal.com/base-metals/news/1418923/vale-halts-onca-puma-as-licence-suspended?utm_source=10%2f05%2f21-07%3a49%3a58-299+-+Gold+gains+as+concerns+weigh+on+markets+Vale+halts+Onca+Puma+as+licence+suspended+Tharisa+starts+cold+commissioning+new+chrome+plant&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=10%2f05%2f21-07%3a49%3a58-299+-+Gold+gains+as+concerns+weigh+on+markets%3b+Vale+halts+Onca+Puma+as+licence+suspended%3b+Tharisa+starts+cold+commissioning+new+chrome+plant&utm_term=Gold+gains+as+concerns+weigh+on+markets+Vale+halts+Onca+Puma+as+licence+suspended+Tharisa+starts+cold+commissioning+new+chrome+plant&utm_content=532707&gator_td=s8FRE4xIhKFfeLD2ZyUpCedI30Z8BR4H6b9nJ%2fHRmAlGNovw3vBS49S7Pzm81ISXwLxaQ8R579ch7WdovxDMyrXzx5ty6goUk3sz%2f5mtEtXqdLTXZHiQzF0KxYoM%2fGnhVAsrllFGgstOyrgUeTPPGTbGgqBw46PG8g7%2bcH1pB9wXTIrcClyjmhyj2EbeFv%2fUdAvlQVmxkkXvFbuskD8ASkoHGMeXJwDDtYGMQa1uyUK4eJIBVu%2fPGwMw0VtesSr8k4CiNBpiv6UCUyeBw9Jji9amf%2fa0SJj3BK9V3npOeKxdP9pFl4iIBHO7VFHpW0tCtB4mu21%2bFYg7ucnLQL0mhA%3d%3d
S&P estimated 4.5 million tonnes of lithium reserves and resources were acquired by companies in H1, nearly 70% of the total for 2020 (6.8Mt), which itself was higher than the previous eight years.
The vibrant corporate activity has been accompanied by a sharp rise in lithium prices - a trend that shows little sign of cooling. Lithium carbonate prices rose above US$20,000/t in September for the first time since 2018.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said yesterday "escalating demand and anxiety surrounding raw material supply" had placed further upward pressure on lithium chemical prices in China in the first half of September.
Yes very positive.
And consider that this mine could be funded by grant money with no dilution
Opel will receive a 437 million euro ($518 million) government grant for its battery cell factory in Kaiserslautern, Germany’s economy ministry said on Thursday, as part of a wider European initiative to create a homegrown battery industry.
https://www.reuters.com/article/opel-batteries-electric/opel-battery-cell-plant-to-get-500-mln-german-govt-grant-idUSL8N2Q41O3
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$17,790/t vs US$17,339/t - (From SP Angel yesterday)
Scramble for lithium escalates as prices see 35-week consecutive highs
Demand for lithium is at record highs with current prices reflecting buyers’ desperation for the key battery mineral.
A recent auction by mining firm Pilbara saw 10,000t of spodumene concentrate acquired for US$1,250/t – almost double its current market price.
Chinese data from August 19 shows battery-grade lithium carbonate hit 100,000y/t this year, with some lithium battery materials growing at c. 1,000y/day.
• With China the global leader of li-ion tech, escalating prices highlight the country’s reliance on imports of lithium
products.
• Domestic Chinese lithium producers, such as Tibet Everest, Tibet Mining and Jiuwu Hi-Tech have all seen at least a doubling in share price in recent months, showing investors’ appetite for locally sourced lithium.
• Lithium giant Ganfeng’s recent merger with Canadian Millenium Lithium saw a 122% mark-up to the Millenium’s average stock price at the time, showing the lengths companies are willing to go to acquire lithium supplies.
• The VC of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated in a recent interview that ‘the overseas deployment of lithium mines’ is ‘conducive to the guarantee of our raw material supply’.
• 2016-2020 has seen a per annum increase of 19% in registrations for Chinese lithium mining companies, with China now home to 330 lithium mining-related companies.
Why this is a long term hold:
An International Energy Agency (IEA) report published in May recommended governments to start stockpiling battery metals, noting that lithium demand could increase 40-fold in the next 20 years. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said this would become an “energy security” issue.
https://www.mining.com/bacanora-lithium-accepts-ganfengs-391-million-takeover-offer/?utm_campaign=The%20Assay&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=154378381&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8yS8NGxxk55loKkYnVX03u9S795Scvzu2-xseWai9lUdFmqLbluvXiedZs8S1i0eU5p2G50OwHJkyR_NVCRXbdrO-_aMm7Os362RwRlXrQMrKDncw&utm_content=154378381&utm_source=hs_email
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$16,501/t vs US$16,368/t (SP Angel Today)
Let those little flippers sell, you don't get rich by selling shares in a relatively new development company at the start of a major Lithium run when there is a large deficit looming. Those shares will be mopped up by smart money. Zinnwald is way under value as Malik has pointed out. Holding and adding here., slow and steady
No reason for a drop. No new shares created. The Bacanora holding is just being passed to the underlying shareholders directly. I think most Bacanora shareholders still holding were in for the long term so they will likely hold the Zinnwald shares too for the long term as they will recognise the massive opportunity it presents. They might even do more research when they see them in their account and decide to buy more.
Agree this will head north.
a good read, thanks for sharing.
Zinnwald is well places
"Lithium is key to the green and technology revolutions happening in the world today and is likely to remain so for a long time to come. Demand for the metal is shooting up and it will take years for new supplies to come on stream. "