Just need a copper / IOCH hit...14 Jan 2022 11:12
Ivanhoe Mines founder and chairman Robert Friedland says the world is heading for a “massive deficit” of copper, even without accounting for increased demand from electrification.
Speaking at the inaugural Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia yesterday, Friedland said the world was entering the "electric everything era".
"Mining is in the process of being reinvented," he declared.
Friedland said on the periodic table, there were eight or nine elements critical to electrification, the most important being copper.
By 2030, it is estimated the world will have 20 million charging points for electric vehicles which would consume 250% more copper than in 2019.
"Vision 2030 is tomorrow morning," Friedland said.
The US-born, Singapore-based entrepreneur said a plug-in electric vehicle required about 109 kilograms of copper, a fivefold increase from a standard internal combustion car.
"Now we're talking about electric trucks and electric trucks will need a truckload of copper," he said.
Friedland noted the strength in the copper price so far in 2022, which has seen prices of more than US$10,000 per tonne this week.
"And we haven't even started to electrify the world economy," he said.
He estimates the world needs a tenfold increase in copper by 2030.
The total amount of copper mined in the world is 700 million tonnes.
Friedland said it would take just 22 years for the next 700Mt to be required - without factoring in electrification.
"Where are we going to find it?" he asked.
"Those of us in the mining industry are scared.
"We just don't have the copper mines the world requires to talk about electrification."
Friedland says that "hyper-conservatively", there would need to be $240 billion of investment in just the next five years in order to meet expected demand.
He said the world also needed "enormous sustainable growth" in copper, as well as nickel, production.
Friedland pointed to Goldman Sachs research, which suggests metals are in a supercycle and in for 20 years of gains.
Goldman Sachs Group global head of commodities research Jeff Currie told Bloomberg Television last week that the bank was "extremely bullish" on commodities,
"The best place to be right now, particularly given the Fed pivot, are commodities," Currie said.
"We think you're going to see another year of outperformance of commodities and real assets more broadly."
Friedland said the world was in "desperate need" of battery metals to tackle climate change.
"We're not here to make money - that's a stupid motivation," he said.
The Future Minerals Forum, which finished yesterday, featured keynote speeches by Barrick Gold boss Mark Bristow and Alcoa president Roy Harvey.
https://www.mining-journal.com/events-coverage/news/1424608/miners-%E2%80%98scared%E2%80%99-of-looming-metal-shortages-friedland
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