Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Maybe Chinese curbs will create an environment for another surge in pricing again next year after the Winter Olympics are finished.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-aims-for-olympic-blue-with-plans-to-extend-steel-curbs-20210810-p58hlp
The last broker note on BH’s website is for Kefi last November. Seems they were recently taken over, maybe they are cost cutting or it’s just a strategy change.
Agree analyst coverage will be biased although Paul Renken on the VSA podcast gets into some pretty factual analysis of numbers, assays etc. Just think a good old 7am release can’t hurt anyone, hoping that happens for the DFS!
Don’t think consistently missing the 7am RNS slot is helping matters when it comes to spreading the #JAN message to a wider audience.
So today’s RNS comes out at 7.47 and the recent MRE one came out at 9.30.
No mention for either updates from 2 mining focused analysts that have occasionally covered #JAN before, for example the VSA Capital “morning miner” podcast (often out by 9am) and the SP Angel “Morning View” (some time later in morning) on a normally quiet Friday.
Simple missed opportunities IMO. Management need to reach out somehow to more investors than currently I feel.
I see the V205 came out at 1.2% compared to 0.9% in the PEA, so that could be another $10 a tonne at the PEA pricing. It will all count in the end.
No comment on the Ti, but I’m wondering if wet magnetic concentration will force the company to play an initial hand here.
Yep, there’s clearly a seller and I’m half wondering now if management are waiting for that to clear before anything decent is announced.
I have listened I think to every interview JM has given in the last 12 months and am convinced he has said in one of those that the bank credit approval would be announced separately to the main finance package. But I’ll be damned if I can find that video now. It might have been the 121 mining conference last end October which is the only video I know of I can’t find a recording of.
Whether he did or not, or whether he has since changed his mind, even if the banks have to go through local, regional, global HQ credit committees to get the overall approval, I can’t see that process taking more than 4 weeks even with 5 banks involved - the tweets toward the end of June were maybe cryptic/ambiguous but signalled the major DD hurdles had been got over, so we have to be blinking close. Or even credit approval is done but not announced.
Frustrating as it might be, I have to assume when the cornerstone deal was done last year that management did not think they’d need to keep it confidential this long. And now it’s gone this far even if they want to provide reassurance, they can’t.
Hopefully patience will pay for the current holders.
Dcat, I’m in your world but doubt I have your average given when you and others first spotted this! Well done for that. Had a small position from late last year but added mainly after I perceived an opportunity at the prices on offer when NvS exercised his options after the placing. So under water right now and doubling down on the research perhaps a little after the event. Suspect some of the recent selling is people in a similar boat, but with less patience. Probably a bit of slicing going on too. Sorry for the plethora of recent questions. Realise management don’t want to create trading windows, but given the plethora of possible news they’re not showing much interest in offering any up! So we’re left to debate amongst ourselves. Actually I get some comfort from an apparent lack of concern on the short term share price, there must be a longer term plan. Hopefully however some of the questions we have on the route forward will become clearer soon…
Woodster, I hope you’re right. Have listened to some of the recent interviews more than once but the Q&A on those interviews is filtered so it has to be considered in that context.
Not knowing how the 300K trial mining limit applies in practice, my only reason for interest in this option is to potentially shorten the payback (vs only being able to sell the magnetic) and minimise/avoid any dilution to get things started before the cash really comes rolling in. Maybe dilution can be avoided in both scenarios with offtakes etc. Agree it could be short term measure but management has not yet articulated how it intends to capture any TiO2 value, so I don’t know how long we’d be waiting for that TiO2 value to arise. Accept there may be practical difficulties with small volumes etc. so it might be a non starter, was just exploring what the options are I suppose.
Ok, maybe I’m more optimistic than you!
Assuming the translation was sound, the mining licence stated
MINERAL SUBSTANCES
IRON, TITANIUM AND VANADIUM ORE
so I think there is at least an evens chance the non magnetic can be sold.
Really this is a factual question for the company, rather than discussion here. If I thought I’d get a reply, I’d ask.
That’s a big resource!
Dcat, for the post yesterday, thanks for the note of caution. Until I see evidence of management’s true ambition for exploiting the TiO2 potential, I’m trying to keep my expectations in check. Realise it will be an iterative journey.
That said the February RNS with the PEA did say the next version would have a “Ti credit” reflected which to me reads at the very least as some sort of byproduct sale. That was what I was trying to get my head around even if it is not exploiting full value through beneficiation etc. Reading up since on mineral sands, I wish I’d paid more attention in school in chemistry!
In terms of short term cash flow, it will matter less if the 300K trial mining limit allows the sale of 300K of product. But if you can only extract 300K of ore in total (which has to be the default assumption to be cautious unless someone knows otherwise), it matters a lot more what the early stage plan is for that non magnetic ore. Stating the obvious, a good year 1 cash flow profile will drive a lot of value here.
Thanks DCat.
Ok, I need to research mineral sands more to know where that equilibrium price per tonne is vs ilmenite for the relative TiO2 content.
But for your comment on the trial mining licence, I thought this included all of Ti, Fe and V from what was written. Assuming these licences always assume there will be some other waste by-product (within the 300k tonnage allowed) beyond the metals specified in the licence, I’m hoping the non magnetic ore could just be sold alongside the magnetic ore within the initial 300k tonne limit (assuming that’s the most beneficial way to do it).
In saying that I’m assuming/hoping the value of the unprocessed/unbeneficiated non-magnetic ore (per tonne, relative to ilmenite) is higher than the magnetic ore. Is that crazy?
All this is ignoring the longer term opportunity to beneficiate ore (needing a partner and/or more capex) and get further value.
Have seen comparisons to our non magnetic ore (over 30% TiO2) and ilmenite (? Typically 50% TiO2).
Question I have is whether, putting aside pricing and discounts off ilmenite for lesser TiO2 content for the moment, if there is actually likely to be a market for our non magnetic ore (after going through the magnetic separation) totally unprocessed or not?
And, if yes, is it as simple as saying Ilmenite prices are X, therefore ours could be worth 30/50 (using numbers above)?
Or is this the million dollar question in terms of near term cash flow, absent a full beneficiation plant or partnering with someone who does?
Tiny trades are moving the price, it's crazy.
So unless there is a delayed trade, someone sold 5,000 at 08.07 and Berenberg drop the bid to 7p.
I just added 10,000 to see what the true market is via IG. Berenberg only had 27,500 shares on offer, so it doesn't feel as if the system is flush with surplus stock. Shore had 50,000 on offer, but they're the only ones that would also take any (again 50,000).
Guess just have to ride this out. GLA.
Agree Largo seems very plausible as the reason, but absent that is a TSX listing for Jangada a crazy idea? I’ve worked out I think who the other big shareholder Matthew Wood is, if I’m right his Steppe Gold is TSX listed so another connection to Canada there. Information on the other largish holder Mark Sumner (who I think is a corporate financier of some kind) is harder to find but think he may too be North America based (US). Largo or not as the partner/end-game, maybe for a business in the Americas, the Canadian standard just makes more sense than JORC?
That’s an interesting thought. Wonder what the magic about reaching 10m tonnes is? Yes, aside from not really changing the payback/ability to finance, extending the mine life gives you less bang for your buck in the NPV. My maths say it doesn’t really change IRR too much at all, you just get the quoted return for longer.
Rather than increasing the MRE, the thing I’m most interested in Goela for now is the metal content - if you compare the inferred content for Goela in the PEA to the latest measured/indicated content for Pitombeiras, it’s quite a bit better. Perhaps the numbers might come down a bit going from inferred to measured/indicated (they seemed to do that in the latest MRE for Pitombeiras) but hopefully not so much that the apparent strength of Goela is eliminated. Maybe under the trial mining it would make sense to start mining at Goela and really maximise that early cash flow, even if it is a smaller resource?