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They both seem more at ease this time.
Both clearly know their brief very well.
Very upbeat message.
Clearly see a lot to be happy about going forward to 2025/2026.
Very much like not volume driven ,but driven by cash flow.
Follow the money! Whether it’s traditional oil or convenience or renewables
BP's first-quarter profit was hit by lower oil and gas trading, missing market forecasts, but the British energy company confirmed a $1.75 billion share buyback.
The London-based oil-and-gas giant said Tuesday that underlying replacement-cost profit--a metric similar to net income its U.S. peers report--was $2.72 billion, a marked decline from $4.96 billion in the same quarter last year. This missed a forecast of $2.87 billion, according to a company-compiled estimate from 24 analysts.
WP
From Archea own site
“ Our goal is for Archaea to be a stable, predictable, profitable business, and we seek to remove variability from our financial returns where possible,” said Light. “Our differentiated commercial strategy is focused on selling a targeted 70% of our expected RNG production volumes under long-term, fixed-price contracts with creditworthy counterparties. This enables us to lock in expected double-digit returns in a downside case, looking only at contracted volumes. We take a ‘highest and best use’ approach to remaining production volumes, which today are sold into the transportation market where they can generate renewable identification number [RIN] and/or low-carbon fuel standard [LCFS] credits. We prefer to reduce our exposure to these markets, which can be volatile and have regulatory risk, through our long-term contracting strategy. Additionally, we focus on landfill gas, which is a low-cost, stable, predictable, long-term feedstock, with landfill gas production expected for more than 20 to 30 years or longer on average at our project sites. Further, we are implementing the Archaea V1 plant design this year, which is a standardized, modularized design that is expected to significantly reduce capital costs and build timelines compared to industry averages.”
So double returns for 70% of their production and aiming for higher it the other 30% ,I’m interested to see where this goes.
Costs are very predictable.
Price paid might be a concern, but I think it may prove ok
My understanding is we are still a seller,but perhaps not a very active one.
Think the hope was that since there was no easy sale,perhaps if left through time somehow the problem might fix itself
But that’s only my version of what I think is happening
In a strange sort of way the whole Rosneft thing allows him to say currently we have lost approx 20% of their production.
And sold Alaska,and put several areas into 3 rd party companies
So we will wait and see what society wants before we commit to any more drops in production .
It’s really all about how they spin it for maximum benefit to sp
Think more than anything from the results tomorrow it will be the message accompanying them regarding future production,and where investment is targeted,that moves the sp ( or not).
Think there is a lot of potential to talk up sp,if they can just get the message right.
Just carried out some quick calculations so hope they are correct.
Current div policy of 4% increase per year take roughly 8 years to get back to something similar to the 2020 div( before the cut).
However if we can continue to squeeze out 10% rises we pass that figure in 3 years,
To keep the current 4.4% yield I’m guessing the sp will be a lot higher
My take is simple
If you think the buybacks are taking place at a sp below what you believe the sp should be then they are a bargain.
I do however have some concerns at buybacks over £5 as historically this has proved not to be a good use of funds.
However since I consider sp should be higher than £5 ( based on earnings historically).
I must consider that I still support buybacks at this sp.
May 3 (Reuters) - A BP-Eni joint venture and Rhino Resources Namibia have signed an agreement for a 42.5% interest in a block in the country's offshore Orange Basin, the companies said on Friday.
The agreement is Azule Energy's first investment in Namibia. Azule, formed in 2022, is a JV between Eni (ENI.MI), and BP (BP.L), for their Angolan assets.
Several oil giants including TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), and Shell (SHEL.L), have invested in Namibia, which plans to open up a major new frontier basin with recent offshore finds ranking among the largest this century
In April, Portugal's Galp Energia (GALP.LS), said it had found at least 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in its field, in the largely unexplored Orange Basin.
The agreement with Rhino will give Azule the right to drill two exploration wells in Block 2914A, one of which is expected to begin in 2024 and an option to operate petroleum exploration licence PEL85 on completion of the deal.
Clued/ Spights/Mark
I have always believed that the swings week to week are a function of start times of tankers being loaded or offloaded.
Eg if you start loading a tankers at several ports 6 hours before reporting time or 6 minutes.
Note if it’s only 6 minutes,the other 5 hrs 54 minutes would have been taken up with one tanker departing and a new one being tied up.
It simply displaces the activity into the next reporting window.
So large loss followed by large gain next week.
It’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.
Jezzoo
What’s your time scale.
My thoughts are be aware right now of sell in May.
Last 3 years there has been a top in early May.
If you have time this has been followed by higher highs later.
Been in the same position,usually like to lock in a chunk at an acceptable price ,then take a chance on the rest( a little gamble to see if I can improve on sp.)
I’m sure you know what you are doing.( at least as well as any of us know)
I watch Exxon,Chevro,Bp,Shell in US markets.
What I do notice is they don’t always move in the same direction ( or often as much as each other).
Something BP moves in step with them sometimes it appears to be doing catch up.
Eg one day BP seems to be in favour,more than the other three.
Then a couple of days later when they all fall,BP has further to fall to catch back up.
I suspect it’s rotation between the different companies in the sector.
At this moment in time it’s also a function of who has reported and who is still to report.