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The below if it turns out to be true is very bullish
“They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth. The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there's a production decline”
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Could-Surprise-to-the-Upside-This-Year.html
If I’m honest I did make a windfall, as I was lucky enough to have funds available at the covid lows.
But since the rest of my BP shares are still underwater from before covid, it feels more like a rebalancing,especially with the changes in capital gains and div tax.
Many were not as lucky as me with no spare cash to reinvest at the lows.
They don’t act like grow ups, and they don’t think like grown ups.
Our 3 year old granddaughter does better forward planning, than any of them manage.
It certainly was not a windfall time for shareholders of BP, but none of them want to understand that.( nor the media).
Soon we will be a third world country with one oil well left.
( ok maybe a slight e
My personal view is that the 10% div increases each year will eventually tell in a higher sp
Meantime the buybacks are making the div more affordable .
Also as a bonus production is aiming to increase from previous targets.
And non of that includes any contribution from renewables.
Also if you can wait 8 years the oil spill payments stop releasing another ÂŁ1.29 billion extra to be shared out to us shareholders every year.
Bit more information
On Monday, BP (NYSE:BP) received an upgrade from a Hold to a Buy rating by a Jefferies analyst, along with an increase in the price target, which was set at $42.30, up from the previous $38.60. The adjustment reflects a 10% increase in the price target, now equivalent to ÂŁ5.7 per share, indicating an approximate 30% total shareholder return.
The analyst cited several reasons for the optimistic outlook on the energy company's stock. One of the key factors influencing the upgrade is the expectation that BP will continue to narrow its valuation gap compared to its peers. The forecast is based on the company's high free cash flow (FCF) yield, which is estimated at 17% for the fiscal year 2024, compared to the average of 14% across the European sector.
The improved sentiment towards BP is also supported by the company's strategic emphasis on increasing distributions to shareholders, a reduction in capital expenditure risks, and what the analyst perceives as conservative consensus expectations for earnings growth. This combination of factors contributes to the belief that BP's stock presents a favorable buying opportunity.
The upgrade and new price target reflect the firm's confidence in BP's potential for growth and profitability. The Jefferies analyst also provided insights into the larger sector, ranking major energy companies in order of preference, with BP coming in second behind Shell (LON:SHEL) and ahead of TotalEnergies (EPA:TTEF) (TTE) and Equinor (EQNR). This sector ranking offers a perspective on how BP is positioned relative to its competitors in the industry.
Https://report.az/en/energy/bp-vice-president-decarbonization-of-sangachal-terminal-only-first-step/
Final Div
Announce date 29-Feb-24 ex div 14-Mar-24 pay 16-May-24 4.2p
Total: 6.0p
FY net cash flow from operating activities was ÂŁ2,100m, with Free cash flow of ÂŁ1,575m
â—Ź Net debt at 31 December 2023 of ÂŁ8,514m, with 3.0x net debt/adjusted EBITDA
â—Ź Proposed dividend payout of 35% (FY 2022: 30%); with a final dividend of 4.2p per ordinary share
â—Ź Going forward dividend to grow at least in line with adjusted earnings
â—Ź Announcing capital allocation of ÂŁ500m for share buybacks in 2024
Within 18 months of our demerger, we reduced net debt by over ÂŁ2 billion, bringing net debt/adjusted
EBITDA down from c.4x to 3x, reflecting both strong cash conversion and financial discipline, underpinning
an increased dividend payout and share buyback. Taken together, our results show consistent delivery on our financial commitments.
Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Raging-Wildfire-Threatens-Texas-Oil-Rigs-Refinery.html
Might all be over in a day or two, or not.
But we are back into lots of small disruptions,which should be adding up.
Instead they are all being regarded in isolation.
Gingy
We all feel it.
The fundamentals do not add up to the current sp.
But for some reason they do at the moment.
Is it the div play
Or the renewables
Or the feeling we are reducing our total,oil output.
Or the board of directors
Or a UK stock market thing.
Or Brexit.
At some point with less debt ,less shares, more earnings( as convenience comes good).we will earn silly money.
I think some parts of the message make very good reading, so either one day the value will be there, or someone will take us over.
But how many times can we think this without seeing any proof.
Charlie
I’m also hoping particularly the US business is becoming more profit centric.
They appear to only be expanding where they see value in US.
And this is more than one or two places.
US offshore wind set for a long pause also