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Twatcher - not sure if I've missed it - have you aplogised and retracted your statement from earlier today about Colin not paying for any of his shares

Does anyone know what stage the standalone mologic test is at I'd hope "Currently being validated or evaluated"

Dump and pump! The lesser spotted cousin of the garden variety pump and dump

Sorry meant standalone mologic/ visitect.

And ,TWatcher still waiting for you to renounce your statement re CK shares.

The RNS says it has the best sensitivity when compared against two other commercially available tests (no mention to specificity).

"As part of the recent clinical study the same clinical samples were tested with two leading, commercially available lateral flow antigen tests, and the data show that the AffiDX® test had better clinical sensitivity across the range of Ct values..."

I'm really interested in seeing a wider scale trial akin to the standalone mologic/Avacta one recently carried out.

So, as with regulator i'm curious why it doesn't contain the S+S in the RNS.

This springs to mind - https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ODX/directorpdmr-shareholding-0dwvofg3kan7dz1.html

Thanks eazy, the visitect test is truly a world class product which in short term should attract a premium.

Easy I don't remember seeing that either and have in fact been looking for it elsewhere previously.

Gregstottle - I'm trying to establish if it's 50m tests over two years - it's my view that it potentially is but I'm not 100% sure.

It's good to see I'm not going mad thinking it could be 50m how have you arrived at 50m over 2 years? Thanks in advance

There's a lot of strong feeling about this tweet. The juvenile nature of it is what strikes me the most. it's factually correct however. What I find astounding is the amount of people who didn't realise the publication of the contract related to the previous RNS (appreciate it may be a relatively vocal few). Look at the contract it was signed in February for heaven's sake!

So You'd like to think most investors already knew this and there wouldnt be an effect on the share price. However, as sentiment plays into peoples decisions I imagine there will be a fall in share price but it will recover when emotion subsides and logic kicks in.

Failing that we're due the mother of all updates which could potentially boost SP to new highs!

What's omegas capacity
What capacity is being used by govt for sovereign test
What's happening with the sovereign test
Confirmation of visitect orders - here's hoping they release some news sharpish to make everyone forget about that childish tweet.
Clarity on the 18% margin - omega need to address this in view. They should either say there's more to it than a simple 18% figure qouted in the contract and they can't discuss further or say they can't comment on it (confirmation by omission?).

If it's a gross margin of 18% it's incredibly disappointing. Less so if omega are only providing 500k test a week as opposed to 1m.

So is that margin only factoring in cost of goods? (Ie.cost of materials)If it is it would take a decent hit when factoring in other operating costs such as wages transportation and all manner of other expenses .

Let's not forget omega were achieving a 50% margin on their ABC activities. Appreciate not with loaned machinery but who would agree to such a hit when other tests achieve circa or greater than 50% margins.

It ls still unclear to me if we should rely on that figure alone -there's enough redacted sections in the contract to potentially affect the final margin.

As I said in a previous post that 18% mentioned in the contract is being presumed as a gross margin so why aren't omega addressing that

"Are you guys suggesting that the 18% is the net profit after all cost and not the gross profit before deduction of costs? That would certainly help. The only other potential upside would be if the £374m was for only a very small element of our production ie the test are for a higher price than we have been speculating, leaving us to sell the rest of our production through our own brand at a much higher margin."

Must profess that tweet was really unprofessional. All it need to say (if it had to be released at all) was that this was not a new contract and we have covered it in an RNS before.

What I consider more newsorthy is the speculation on the margin. There's a groundswell who now think it's an 18% margin. No one knows knows if that's a gross or net margin and speculators are also wilfully neglecting to factor in the cost model at annex 3 of the contract as well as other unknowns.

Given this fevered speculation why aren't omega addressing that?

Star-not-so-bright please read the contract again it's not an 18% margin for the manafacturing stage. They will not disclose the margin it may not be in there and it's too commercially sensitive

There is no reference to the margin aoplicable for phase 2 (the manafacturing stage).

That margin refers to 4.2 which specifies it's for for phase 1 pre production stage (see page 2)

It's interesting that The contract is over 2 years Tecbadger has speculated if it's 50m tests a year, or over the length of the contract.

What do we know-

GADs contract is circa 3 times the value of Omegas.
200m tests have been qouted.
All things being equal omega would therefore produce circa 50m of those tests.

Brighty1 found the following - @JimBethell We’re investing in 2m LFDs per week by end May from British firms @OmegaDiagnostic and @mologic to stop the spread of COVID-19. Investment in talent will help "build back better" & create 100s of jobs".

So If GAD are making circa 3 times omega on a weekly basis.that would mean omega were making 500,000 on a weekly basis? And 25m on a yearly basis?

Pure speculation on my part so happy to be shot down.

Has it actually been confirmed anywhere how much capacity omega has outside the govt contract? (Obviously I'm aware of the overall 2m tests a week previously mentioned )

Interesting information in there though which we were not previously aware of, I haven't had a chance to read it in full yet but page 1, section 2.3 is interesting and something I expected was in there . "Preproduction payments" I wonder how much?

Yeah careful That'll be the next approach some will take to slate the company! If omega lose power they won't be able to honour their contracts and they'll be fined one billion pounds. Those truly desperate (and there's a few ) will then move onto the effects of snow on transportation

So that's the 250+ plus staff in place that was highlighted in a tweet a few weeks back!

I'll try to ellict some constructive debate - i'm not for one minute entertaining a battle between the AVCT test and visitect; as others have mentioned there could be more than one sovereign test and they may both be chosen and or suited for different settings.

AVCT BB are rightly proud of the sensitivity that was determined in their last round of tests. Could truly be a game changing technology. What struck me as well as the high sensitivity was the specificity of 99.0% especially in light of Visitects 100% on a large scale trial.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, is this everyone's understanding of the specicificy of Innova, AVCT, Visitect

Innova 99.6%
AVCT 99.0%
visitect 100%

Appreciate this is a generalisation not comparing CT values etc.

One of Deeks (pardon my language) main issues was false positives with Innova.

If the AVCT test is 99.0 will there be a greater instance of false positives to balance against a greater accuracy in positive detection?

If Visitect is less accurate than Avacta at identifying positives at lower viral loads would the govt favour less false negatives as a means to reopening in certain settings (schools + universities spring to mind)

As I said only opening for debate and I am by no means an expert on S+S - I don't care what test is chosen as omega will make either

As highlighted above if the figures I have laid out are wrong please feel free to shoot me down.