Member Info for Meconopsis

Couerdelion - I both agree and disagree with you.

As a long term insurer where long term liabilities are matched against long term investments, LGEN offers less risk than a general insurer like Allianz.

In a rational market, that lessor risk would be rewarded by a higher risk premium. If you ignore Allianz specifically, which does bring in the issue of nationality, then LGEN is intrinsically lower risk than Admiral, but trades as if it were far riskier.

The chances of the market recognising that and closing the gap are slim though.

“I believe the dividend is unsustainable as I have no understanding of LGEN, contracts for insurance or IFRS 17. So I'll blindly keep spouting my crap in the hope of influencing the equally clueless.”

The problem is that blindly spouting it doesn’t make it right.

I’ve done many posts in the subject, but if you head over to Gordon Aitkin’s substack where you’ll find all the education you need.

It’s probably the most sustainable dividend on the stock market because it has profits locked in for the next 10-30 years.

If you’re not interested in learning about it then you’d be better off holding other investments.

But, each to their own. I wish you the best in all your investments.

Driftking27 - how do you get to the dividend being unsustainable?

It’s interesting to see how much the US market is driving and supporting the share price increases. Volumes used to be in the tens of thousands and are now typically 10-20x that.

Montecristo2 - in many respects I think that SDLF is an easier takeover proposition.

From the Times - just published…

https://www.thetimes.com/business/companies-markets/article/vistry-crisis-housebuilder-labour-targets-pwzm0ldff

The crisis surrounding “Labour’s favourite housebuilder” is escalating as subcontractors have been ordered to halt work on new developments to preserve cash — and it can be revealed at least £130 million of the company’s off-balance sheet investments have been red-flagged.

Vistry, which also trades under the names Bovis, Linden and Countryside, is battling a plunging share price and an assault by hedge funds betting that the worst is yet to come.

Bets against Vistry’s fortunes hit a record high even after the company shed a fifth of its value last week alone. The proportion of Vistry’s shares out on loan to short-sellers has hit 12.5 per cent. Short-sellers make money by borrowing shares, selling them, waiting for them to fall in value and buying them back on the cheap. Its share price has fallen by 57 per cent of its value this year and is down 80 per cent on an August 2024 high.

Sources close to the company insisted that it was falling victim to a concerted attack by short-sellers who are looking to make money at the expense of other shareholders by pushing their negative agenda.

…

Https://youtu.be/wgl0MBTWV3I

Pre-painted figures next?

…not now Andy.

Especially given that him entering the race has sent 30 year bond yields to a 28 year high and 10 year bonds to their highest level since 2008. This is against a 2% decline in the pound this week.

Given that takeovers, like comedy, are all about…

…timing then I’d question whether any company would make an offer in the current political turmoil - particularly for a politically-sensitive asset like L&G.

And whilst life insurers broadly benefit from increased bond yields, the rest of the market is likely to act as a vortex this coming week.

Officially $1.25tn

https://www.scottishmortgage.com/en/uk/individual-investors/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2026-q2-spacex-pre-ipo-briefing-note-10063055

“Read off the chart for the historical data. Set yahoo to 1 month chart and you can read off each day. they correspond on both websites”

Thanks so much and appreciate the patience - that’s my stupidity sorted 🫡

Thanks for the links, but neither gives volumes for the week and the two disagree on yesterday’s volumes - Yahoo gives 141,074 and Pink 778,526!

I’m finding it interesting that US volumes have jumped significantly in the last 6 trading sessions and, consequently, US price action seem to be bleeding across to the UK.

Saying that, I’m having the devil’s own job of trying to get reliable IS OTC trading volumes with Gemini, Claude and ChatGPT all disagreeing with each other.

Does anyone have access to sensible data?

Thanks joedjoed.

I was using *one* of the NAV values off the RNSs, but must admit to not understanding the difference between the NAVs.

If anyone has a pithy explanation then it would be appreciated!

That’s not unreasonable joedjoed. SpaceX went into the SpaceXAi pot at $1tn with XAi at a laughable $250bn.

I get to a 1.2, rather than 1.25, multiplier by taking the percentages of the NAV on the relevant dates and dividing…

Feb 1260.52 * 15.4% ‎ =  194.12

Mar 1207.41 * 19.3%‎ =  233.0301

233.0301/194.12‎ = 1.2

Lordloadsoflolly - one point of nuance on the discount to NAV is that that discount was based on the difficulty of valuing private companies and their associated illiquidity.

As SpaceX and other IPOs feeds through (Databricks, Anthropic, etc are all rumoured for this year) then that discount should narrow. Until they reapply some of the gains at least.

joedjoed - most commentators are have claimed that SMT are using an enterprise value of $1.25tn at the moment. Which isn’t to say that your estimate is wrong.

Could I ask how you arrived at it?

“What price limit did you set, out of interest?”

430

Close, but no cigar.

We live in an exciting times.

Heavy volume and it seems to have found a degree of support.

The US OTC opens at 2:30pm our time - so that should be “interesting”.

I was overly optimistic in setting my sell limit order this morning (in the hope of rebuying later at a lower support level). You live and learn, etc.

Respect to anyone who managed to pull it off. 🫡

No intention of exiting - I was just hoping to add more shares on the price difference.

“The US OTC market is unofficial (it's not a secondary market) and, as far as I am aware, it does not trade either FTC shares…”

That’s not the case mate. The F designator means that it’s a 1:1 mapping - with US market makers buying/selling shares back into the LSE.

On Friday and today the US saw trading volumes of 2.5m shares - most after UK close - against typical US OTC daily volumes of 50,000.

That represents around 2% of the *actual* free float (taking away shares held in Treasury, by insiders, by the Dixons/Newlands, by SpaceX and by Aberforth).

It also represents twice the normal (circa 1.1m) normal UK trading volume for FTC (4-7m on a busy day).

Something’s up. And it’s less a case of whether FTC will open up (finger in air suggests 430), but how much can be held onto after profit taking.

We’re also already on a 70x P/E. And matching the US close would put that at 107x.

But if we get a RNS then it’ll get *very* exciting.

We’ll be needing popcorn for breakfast 🍿

At least we’re not going to die of boredom…

Comparatively high volume - 1,471,935 - three times Friday’s volume.

I agree robleo…

…and/but if I’ve got the choice between a 7.8% yield from PHP with NHS customers who aren’t going anywhere quickly and (generally) won’t be allowed to fail…

…or 7.4% from a company that has to negotiate with Tesco, Sainsbury’s et al - any of whom could choose to abandon a site because it’s not pulling its weight…

…then I’d choose PHP.

I’d actually want SUPR to have maybe a 1% premium for the risk of the organisations they are dealing with.