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and they’ve addressed the technical covenant breach.
Any equity raise would be accretive to the business. Would just allow them to borrow more and lend more. It’s valued at £15m - only 320m shares in issue so quite volatile.
What makes you think this? Agree on recovery potential. Dropped from 100p 5 years back. No covenant breaches now. Cash growing. Think fair value at 20p+ here...
Totally agree - think this fares better from a regulatory perspective
I also feel quite relaxed - done the dd on prior investor presentations, read and re-read RNS’s. Wrong valuation. Need the uncertainty around a potential equity raise to clear before we see a big move I think. Any raise should be accretive to the opportunity. The CEO has more than 2m shares here from original IPO at £1. The business is in a much better position right now.
In the last couple of years, dividends were at 2.6/2.7p a share, just under 50% yield at current levels.
Think this is a really good point; the board is top notch. All will be revealed shortly, but clearly HSBC have bought in in the open market as they see value and you would expect them to increase their interest (either open market or in any raise). I'm sure that they will have a positive influence on the creditor too. Bottom line (my bet anyway) is that this is not an insolvency risk - and it is still priced like one.
wow, that's 0.5% whole almost. I'm at about 0.25% whole. Great to have the HSBC endorsement.
The drop down was fast in the end. Think today was the turn. Way undervalued - it would not surprise to see double figures quickly. 10p is £32m only. This is not going bust. Price is wrong. The business could be run-off today and be valued closer to 15p. That is not the boards' intention. They want to recapitalise to take advantage of the opportunity. Any equity raise would be accretive to the business opportunity/growth prospects. Dividends were at 1.5/2p per year, 30% of current Cap.
Quietly up 22% today. I'm under water here, from initial entries in the 11s and further entries in 5s/6s. Do not think that this is going into administration. This is how it is priced.
Sentiment rock bottom here. Wonder if any raising will be at a premium - think it has to be.
what's your view Older on current state of affairs?
well, it's certainly priced to fail now. Let's see what the 9.30 presentation has to offer.
Thanks, think this is just a prudent pause and review. As you say and they say: "When circumstances allow, the Group has access to additional borrowing facilities totalling £185m to fund future loan book growth." The mark down re the NSF equity seems disproportionate when the signs are that Covid less bad than expected on the economy. Equity markets certainly seeing V shaped recovery from April.
Hardman report issued shortly after the investor day in January makes the business case pre Covid and provides a fair valuation in the 70p range. Sure, the underlying environment has changed but we’re a long way off the 30p valuation pre Covid, let alone 70p and we know that the business generated £3m cash first 3 weeks April - things can’t be that bad!
Just auditors. Look at the share price history - and this is as low as it’s been (besides the drop to 8.4 ish as the markets crashed). Market Cap at £37/8m. Can’t see the results being bad either. It’s about the outlook, how will the business fare going forward. Does remote working impact business? Will they look to grow the loan book? Think it’s very cheap at these levels.
Picked up a few more today. Dividend for last financial year should have been 3p, so 25% yield at a share price of 12p. Cash instead conserved by the business. Generated £3m cash 1st 3 weeks April prioritising collections. Think all noise around Amgo positively impacts NSF. Look forward to those results!
The fundamentals certainly make the price attractive. It is an illiquid stock so volatile, but i have a position. Operating costs and cash position make this v low isk. Any turnaround in the oil and gas pricing and this could easily double and still look cheap.
2 days. On 7th June Director of Investor Relations and Communications wrote to me saying: "Many thanks for your mail and sorry for the delay in responding - we share your frustration. We are working with our auditors to complete the audit and hope to be able to announce our results soon. I am sorry I cannot be more definitive but we are in the hands of our auditors I'm afraid. Thank you for your patience."