Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No idea on numbers for live streaming I’m afraid. It got good reviews (see below) that link originated from John. I do know that they didn’t assume much in setting the guidance for this year.
https://www.reddit.com/r/kpopthoughts/comments/15701to/kpop_lux_concert_madrid_live_stream_review/ “I watched the Livestream and it was £13.99 well spent.“
Https://news.koreadaily.com/2023/07/24/life/artculture/20230724003600591.html
At the performance, seven K-POP artists from a total of seven teams, including SHINee, ATEEZ, Cravity, Stacy, Enhyphen, Ive, and Cykers, took the stage and enthused more than 40,000 spectators.
"The response is so hot that there is a request to hold a 'super concert' in South America such as Brazil. We plan to use this Spanish performance as a bridgehead to advance to South America as well."
Https://los40.com/2023/07/24/el-k-pop-lux-sube-los-decibelios-en-madrid-y-revoluciona-a-los-amantes-de-un-fenomeno-mundial/
Last nights concert got some great reviews.
2023 is predicted to be a big turning point for lvcg. The brokers note has forecast that there will be a swing from a loss into a pofit this year and substantial growth next year.
https://media.umbraco.io/live-company-group/3bpbpruo/lvcg_sp-angel-research-note.pdf
2022E
Adj EBITA (ÂŁ1.540m)
Net income (ÂŁ3.203m)
2023E
Adj EBITDA ÂŁ1.251m
Net income ÂŁ0.14m
2024E
Adj EBITDA ÂŁ4.327m
Net income ÂŁ3.177m
“Our revenue forecasts include assumptions for agreed events, license fees and ticket sales.
The upside potential from merchandising and streaming revenues is not yet fully captured in our forecasts. As such we believe these are relatively conservative and that LVCG will deliver strong performance against this base-case forecast model. We forecast EBITDA losses of ÂŁ1.5m in 2022E, followed by positive EBITDA of ÂŁ1.25m in 2023E, and ÂŁ4.3m in 2024E primarily supported by growth in the KPOP brand and increased license fees. We expect the Group to begin generating Net Profit by the end of 2023E.
Simple DC analysis on our forecasts produces a baseline value of ~ 11p/share”
It’s been the change to the KPOP lux operating model that’s been the big turning point for lvcg. That gives 100% of the upside of these festivals to lvcg. Last nights Madrid concert looked to be a big success. The KPOP fans are “discerning” customers (a polite way of saying that they really will complain about everything) but they all seemed to love the concert, and it was pretty full from what I could see. We know that the brokers note is not only conservative, but that it’s based on a very conservative budget for each concert, so my expectation is they exceeded what they wanted from Madrid. Plus there’s the merchandising, sponsorship and live streaming to be added , none of which were in the brokers note forecasts.
Hopefully there will be a report of the figures from Madrid, completion of the accounts (remember this was being done as a planned switch to a top 10 auditor and they have already passed due diligence with flying colours), resumption of trading (expected end of July). And announcement of the line up and starting ticket sales for London.
Ticket sales for Madrid look like they are ahead of what was said in the investors presentation. Since suspension, sponsorship deals for circa £100k have been landed which weren’t taken into account in the brokers note figures and they landed live streaming. Hopefully London will be announced around the same time as suspension has been lifted. Imo the share price was smashed down on three things.
1. Placing fear. The cash flow crisis seems to be resolved with the profits for Madrid being available in August.
2. Suspension fear. The suspension was caused because they planned a change to a more respected auditor who just needed a bit more time to complete their review (due diligence passed with flying colours) and it’s on track to return by the end of July.
3. DC factor and poor comms. The most recent comms have seen DC doing what he said he would do, at the time he said it, and including financial information in RNS’.
IMO confidence in lvcg is significantly improved and this should see the share price move towards an alignment to the value. Brokers target price of 11p which is very conservative imo.
Chunky rental of one of their larger sets. Nice to see bricklive sets still being rented out. Should more than break even this year as a division, making that focus on reducing the operating costs worthwhile. Plenty of growth potential once they start having the staff capacity.
https://www.blueplanetaquarium.com/events-experiences/whats-on/bricklive-ocean/
Nice that they are building up the relationship with some big brands. Wonder if they will also end up being translated to London too.
100% of sponsorship comes directly to lvcg, the profit from Madrid has already exceeded that fromFrankfurt last year. None of that sponsorship has been accounted for in the (already conservative) brokers note.
Https://musicindustryblog.wordpress.com/2021/10/06/live-streamings-second-growth-phase/
Revenue from ticketed live stream concerts surpassed $600 million in 2020, and the market trajectory in Q4 20, combined with the pandemic outlook, suggested that the market was going to push on past $2 billion in 2021.
https://bloggingwizard.com/live-streaming-statistics/
The global live streaming market is estimated to reach over $247 billion by 2027
This shows just how huge the live streaming market is expected to become. In a few years, it’ll be worth almost a quarter of a trillion dollars. Industry estimates predict a 28.1% CAGR throughout the forecast period.
Live streaming. Plus it comes with figures and key metrics so you can work out what it’s worth. It’s a big provider who i, sure will be tapping into the South America market in particular. Frictionless and scaleable.
Just illustrates again why the effort to form KPOP LUX is so valuable as not only do lvcg get much more of the pie, the actual pie is a lot bigger too.
Https://www.visitsoutheastengland.com/events/reading-dino-trail-p2222381
While there was news on Friday, the expected news was for merchandising with a UK company, and the news was an unexpected sponsorship deal. So there’s further news to come next week before the launch of London the week after.
I’m expecting even more sponsorship for Madrid, and it’s also likely that there will be further sponsorship for London. Like formula E there will be a big difference between the small sponsorships and event sponsorship, and worth remembering that while sponsorship for Frankfurt (where they get 20% - (50% of 40%)), LVCG receive 100% of the sponsorship for Madrid and London.
Sponsorship has not been included in the brokers note forecast which gives a target of 11p.
Not only that, but they sold more tickets to Kia for the event, which as it’s already profitable adds to the bottom line.
As well as meeting expectations and delivering news when they said they would. (That’s actually the biggest thing for me).
If the company makes a profit, generates cash and grows the share price will go up. That’s exactly the transformation happening here.
There are actually not that many revenue generating companies on aim never mind profitable ones. Plus you can lay a lot of blame at the door of DC for poor communications, but he’s not to blame for covid, which devastated entertainment businesses and many didn’t survive. So lvcg has yet to see any recovery back to operating in its core businesses as well as the transformation to a profitable cash genetrating business. He’s also got a background of growing and selling a business, but I appreciate that is a bit inconvenient to your trolling.
As John says, stop being so cowardly and fess up and tell us your real identity and agenda, rather than the fantasy story about being given shares to settle an invoice.
“David read law at Kings College London and was called to the Bar (Barrister) as a Blackstone Exhibitor before joining the merchant bank Guinness, Mahon & Co.
He was one of the original shareholders of Satellite Television plc ('SATV'), renamed SKY following the (1983) sale to Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. David continued running SKY and was responsible for establishing SKY's production company and for the first VPL and Pan-European PRS agreements, as well as the conception of Eurosport and the first ever World Music Video Awards.”
Indeed knigel. Seems the true purpose of this new account has emerged but let’s face it, it wasn’t even thinly disguised in the first place.
The whole “I’ve been given 143,000 shares in payment of an invoice” either means it’s easy for the company to track this account down or verify that was just a complete jackanory.
I’ve alerted Sarah to these posts. Following what happened when someone tried to steal their IP last year I know that the company are much more determined to pursue libellous claims against them.
Good advice there. The webinar was good but it did highlight the continuing divergence between the public position as articulated in an RNS and the direction in the brokers note and what is intended. You also have to balance that against the fact that DC isn’t the most reliable when it comes to timings of when he says things will happen. The suspension is only likely to be for a short period and “administrative suspension” is a good description IMO.
The uplift in the SP yesterday was the reaction of those that went to the webinar who were clearly now more confident. It shows that there’s a relatively small free float and that the sp can move quite quickly especially if there’s even a small amount of buying pressure. The webinar also noted that there’s quite a bit of news to come during that period, which will give the opportunity for that message to get out to a wider audience and for the divergence between the price and value to be more widely recognised.
As always, it depends on your attitude to risk, I will just remark that the best time to buy is during quiet periods, especially if you want to buy more than normal market size. DYOR
Good webinar today. DC could do with appearing in something that looked a bit more professional, but overall he gave a good account of the brokers note and change in direction of the company. All divisions reported as profitable and will be in profit at the end of the year as well as generating cash. Must have been a big disappointment to those trying to spread fear that he is planning to take it private or that another placing is around the corner as he totally scotched those rumours. Suspension will be brief with the accounts due to be published by the end of July and is as a result of a planned change of auditor, with no issues identified or expected. Much news to come in July. Madrid is already profitable (over 27,400 seats sold) and will have live streaming. London due to launch in July, also with live streaming. Frankfurt artists being announced soon and still planned for Oct. Japan delayed and likely early next year, but they have already been paid 75% of the fee upfront. Title Sponsorship for formula E being negotiated with two “household names”. Market clearly liked the update, although we still have to see the news delivered in an RNS, and I’m sure a few will have held back until they see that news in black and white.
Random grudgebearer appeared to ask a random question of selling shares they had apparently been given for payment. LSE is clearly the very first place you would go and create an account to ask such a question rather than pressing sell on your sharedealing account, as well as claiming having known DC for 42 years. I’m willing to venture that’s not unconnected with those spreading other “rumours”.
You should submit a question about taking it private especially since the trolls are spreading rumours again. As you say the same rumours were being spread a few years ago which also turned out to be nonsense. I specifically asked this week and got a very prompt and definitive no.
There are now 260m shares in issue and if all the warrants are exercised that could be circa 300 million. But while the share count has gone up, the company is 4 times bigger than it was then, with much better opportunities. It’s also a lot less dilution than some of the other darlings being ramped by those who are trolling lvcg, but they are apparently blind to dilution in shares they are actually invested in ;-)
Trump is a good analogy.