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Hi Steve , the latest position (as I understand it) is anticipated 510k clearance in H2 2020.
If that was achieved it would represent a fantastic result for investors as approval is definitely not fully factored into the share price .
What are you referring to with regard to listing this year ? Was this information pre the delay outlined in June 2020?
Apologies if I have missed something.
510k approval anytime in H2 2020 would be huge for this stock . The listing process should not represent a significant barrier after 510k approval
Hi Tipster. What is the writing on the wall in your view?
Is your view that 510K clearance will not be achieved? All available commentary (to the best of my knowledge) is pointing towards eventual clearance (all be it there has been a delays in what is an understandably complex clearance process) , so wondered what your view is and what it is based on?
What significance is the level of activity on this BB board in your view? It has zero impact on the fundamentals of TEK.
Best of luck with your investment choices, whether you stay in with TEK or invest elsewhere.
Hi Gregg, the share price is behaving fairly predictably at the moment IMO, I am not expecting any true momentum in the share price until (or if) there is news of concrete progress (a major deal being signed or FDA clearance).
I believe one person may have mentioned 20p in the next two weeks, in any case, that view is certainly not reflective of the weight of opinion on the BB.
If the share price soared to 20p based on no news, there would be a good chance of it just crashing back down again (as there would be nothing to justify the increase). This would not benefit long term investors.
I agree with you there is bags of potential at TEK, lets hope they can realise this potential in the not too distant future....they are knocking on the door in a few different spaces IMO.
GLA
Just topped up again. Positive developments being made in the background. Anticipated FDA clearance in 2020 with regard to belluscura. When this process is approved the share price will be significantly higher than 10.5 IMO.
And that, is before you add in the value relating to the other portfolios. News imminent on the Guident portfolio. Salarius is being tested by 20 large food producers. There is plenty of value with a £10m cap.
Would like to hear it again as reasonably fast moving, this was my grasp at the time
Belluscura:
As said below, Cliff was very "bullish" about FDA approval in H2. CBelluscura were working 'diligently' to make this happen. Made it clear that Belluscura have their own legal team and will release material information as appropriate. Effectively dismissed concerns raised regarding the clinical trial (said there were many stages to the approval process) and that any material results would be released in a timely/appropriate manner. Would like to hear the exact wording again, but believe Cliff said that post FDA approval, further funds would need to be raised before large scale production. I think this extra funding is to be expected but would be interesting to know the exact mechanism that will be used to raised funds (and the potential for dilution to our ownership share).
If you were play to devil's advocate, I guess you would say, why should we give weight to Cliff’s confidence in FDA approval? Nobody can offer you a guarantee on this at this stage.
My personal view, I think there is a high chance that they will get this over the line sooner rather than later. It will be a market leading piece of equipment. Very exciting for sufferers of COPD and us as investors.
Salarius: Think Cliff said that the Saltme brand will be distributed to 100 outlets by year end. There are 20 large food producers looking at salarius, to incorporate the product into their products. Cliff said that this process understandably takes time as it is a major decision for a food producer to introduce a new ingredient. Cliff also said that it is not easy to replicate the micro salt crystals product. If another producer wants to create their own version of micro salt crystals, they will have to apply a different transformation process to the salt or they will be in breach of the patent held by Tek.
Guident: Announcement in the next 60 Days.
Lucyd: New “light” product range to arrive. Cliff said, to their knowledge, there is no comparable product on the market to rival this offering (which can utilise light weight frames).
In reference to the consultancy business, Cliff re-iterated that this model is strategic to maintain the relationship with the various institutions, offering future IP opportunities for TEK.
Cliff is instrumental to the success of this company. He sounded enthusiastic and engaged. The criticism has been levelled on this board, that TEK is a job for the boys (suggesting Cliff is in semi-retirement mode). To me he sounds exited and committed to the portfolios.
This Q&A was also clearly an effort to address the perceived lack of communication with investors.
No current sales or revenue figures to get excited about, so expect volatility around the share price to persist.
Great products, good business model, talented board and staff. The foundations for success are there. No guarantees. Personal view, am expecting exciting progres
Steveiom, your view is very clear and your frustration palpable. Your justified view is that we should have had the results of the clinical trial.
As a clinical trial was announced, I totally agree, in terms of transparency the result (or lack of) should be communicated (I understand your concerns that investors could be at a disadvantage). Though I am not sure we would have appreciated a share price reduction if the results were nuanced (i.e. if the clinical trial was not an absolute success but the inadequacies identified could be easily rectified).
I am all for better communication between the BOD and investors. I am not saying you should blindly trust the BOD and I appreciate you asking the question.
Once the FDA process is passed the product can be marketed and sold (to the best of my knowledge!!). The RNS on 17th June (just over a month ago) perhaps indirectly addresses your concerns:
“ Belluscura is in the process of completing the final surety tests and anticipates it will receive 510K clearance within H2”
So to me, the BOD would be acting in bad faith in the clinical had in fact de-railed the project.
There is nothing (currently) to make me believe that the BOD is lacking in integrity or are acting in bad faith.
I do think we should question why they anticipate clearance being H2 (given such a long delay).
I can even forgive the supply chain issue in producing more units….it makes sense that you would not have the supply chain established before large scale production started (why they didn’t know they needed to make additional units is a puzzle).
I think TEK will get there. Market leading technology (particularly when subjected to medical testing) does not appear out of thin air. Takes time.
Plenty of things to be positive about……share price volatility to continue in the absence of news. Hopefully, some concrete news to come.
Excellent questions Adamsky, thank you for asking.
One of the things that intrigues me about this stock relates to question "How many other products are currently being assessed to add to TekCapitals portfolio ?"
The vast network of institutions that TEK has a relationship with is a compelling business model. There will be additional opportunities in the future to add to the existing portfolios.
First priority is of course, to achieve market penetration with one of the existing portfolios.... then the perception (and share price) of TEK will transform.
Big picture for Belluscura. If any aspect of the testing has gone badly (whether it be the independent clinical trial or the all-important FDA process) this would most likely result in a delay, rather than the product not getting eventually to market.
Yes, it is quite possible to envisage that the BOD will come calling for additional funds in that scenario - though undesirable from shareholder perspective - not necessarily the end of the world given TEK's tiny market cap (and if the cash injection got the product over the line).
The market for oxygen concentrators is large and increasing. I appreciate the frustration but I genuinely think you have to balance that frustration against the potential for belluscura (and the other portfolios). The oxygen concentrator they have designed will represent a leading piece of technology in this market. These things can take time.
In terms of TEK generally, you have to take the rough with the smooth if you invest in a company like tek, with no mature portfolios. We all, as investors, have bought into a share with a minimal revenue stream (and no dividends), so we have all effectively invested in their potential. They have never been better placed as a company to deliver on the potential (I appreciate they are yet to deliver).
And yes, TEKs share price could become a multiple of the current price. It is not a laughable suggestion. Rather the conclusion of TEK making any serious headway in the large markets they are operating (attempting to operate) and a tiny market cap (given they have good products).
Keep your exposure to any aim stock manageable, the risks are there (I wouldn't put my whole pension pot on TEK) but it is far from a dog that should be put down (as suggested below). If it were a dog that should be put down, the logical inference would be to short this stock…IMO that would be a very dangerous game to play with TEK (based on current information).
Good luck all
Good questions TradingLad. Thank you for asking them.
Given the abysmal sales figures, the performance of Lucyd warrants some commentary from the board (why not put them on the spot). I probably woudn't word it as strongly as you :-)
Putting the Q&A a side….
I think Lucyd is a tricky one. Ordinarily, I would like the projected revenue, associated costs and sales strategy (their short term and long term business plan effectively). This would provide a benchmark against which Lucyd performance could be measured (or give them enough rope to hang themselves, if they don’t perform).
But, I strongly suspect that Lucyd (like the crisps) is more proof of concept, with the long term hope being that a bigger player wants to acquire the technology. If this is the case (they won't reveal this) we at least need to know the projected future costs associated with Lucyd so we can see how much of a drag it is on TEK.
Investor confidence crumbling away today.
I won't be selling but can understand why some have made that choice. Well done to anybody who has walked away with some money in their pocket.
Am expecting a rocky ride but share price movements alone will not make me sell TEK.
Only information will change my current view. TEK has the talent and business model to succeed IMHO. Time will tell if they deliver on this potential.
GLA
I am definitely not of the persuasion that no news is good news. But, the AGM is in a little over two weeks (starting to look like it may be radio silence until then, we shall see).
We could generate infinite hypothetical scenarios with regard to developments in the background.
Nobody is trading as everybody is waiting for ACTUAL news. The market is almost acting rationally in that respect!!
Everybody has different investments strategies and time scales. I wish everybody the best of luck with their investment choices and respect their decisions.
For me,
i) Salarius is a great product, with huge as yet unrealised potential, in a massive market.
ii) The portable oxygen concentrator is patented (potentially) market leading technology. Let’s hope the testing has gone well. But, if there are bumps in the road to getting approval, I am prepared to wait them out if I can see that a path to success remains (as the market for this product is not going anywhere). Patience.
iii) Guident will have it’s day.
No need to watch any suspense thrillers on the google box when you have TEK.
Thanks for your perspective Midas (always welcomed).
I recognise your point, that the $5m is a change in valuation rather than a real terms increase in revenue.
I tend to think (big picture) that $5m in the accounts in terms of this investment is neither here or there (though I am concerned about lack of real revenue leading to share dilution).
Modest income from the consultancy business (and putting Lucyd aside - I don't have faith in it) all of the portfolios are immature (with Salarius hopefully close to bringing in some real income).
Difficult (if not impossible) to apply conventional indicators/ratios for assessing the share price.
In assessing the share price, you have to assign your own probability of Tek being a success based on: their overall business model (a global network of universities); their (immature )portfolios; the markets they operate in and your confidence in the leadership team to deliver.
Clearly, that is highly subjective. A punt of kinds (nobody could argue Tek is not a speculative offering). That's the game.....risk V reward.
With a 10m cap and the progress of Salarius, IMO that reward looks to be sooner rather later (with the other portfolios biding their time).
Agree with BigBang, Edale would be in physical possession of the shares. On the surface at least, is not consistent with a normal shorting strategy (to the best of my knowledge!).
I guess it is possible, that in the future, Edale could sell off in large chunks and try an induce a capitulation in the share price (to then buy it back at a lower price at a future date). But, that is not my interpretation of the move.
I would interpret the news as an endorsement of TekCapital.
Additionally, assuming there is not asymmetric information, Tekcapital would appear to have a lot of upside (and hopefully not the same scale of downside).
Thanks for your thoughts on the leadership team BigBang. Certainly on paper their expertise looks unquestionable. So as mentioned by others, we need somebody to drive their ideas forwards into commercial success.
I am hoping Belluscura is just a matter of time. I say this, as while I won't profess to be an expert on oxygen equipment, they don't sound like they are trying to re-invent the wheel.....it is just a smaller, more portable (cost efficient) version of existing technology. So as long as it is properly made/reliable and can be simply assembled then I would expect it to get approval (hopefully soon). The market for this equipment is already large and developed countries have an aging population, so COVID or not this looks a good longterm opportunity.
Salarius is enough to keep most investors interested at this share price.
Guident looks like a work of genius but may be a while to it generates income (unless a big player swoops in).
Lucyd looks technology that would have existed in Japan or South Korea ten years ago (and didn't take off)...but perhaps the improved sound quality etc may make it a success (it would be a nice surprise if it did…not holding my breath on this one).
17th June RNS for Belluscura...it quotes 'good progress' and 'clearance within H2':
Tekcapital plc, (AIM: TEK) the UK intellectual property investment group focused on creating marketplace value from university technology, announces that its portfolio company Belluscura plc is making good progress with its 510K submission though it has been impacted by COVID-19 associated external supply chain issues which has increased the scarcity of certain key components, increased lead times, and reduced capacity at part manufacturers and testing facilities. Belluscura is in the process of completing the final surety tests and anticipates it will receive 510K clearance within H2.
To justify the dropping share price (large amount of volatility for small companies anyway - not necessarily a material drop) you would have to interpret the absence of news as meaning things are not progressing well in the background. I think it is premature to make that assumption. I won't be selling.