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Harald is in the Know Baf3…..and expert in his field, previously holding very impressive senior positions . I am hopeful ……but there will be voices on this BB who (in the absence of information and expertise in this niche field) will only articulate the risk (and lack of current earnings ) without the upside
A licensing deal on the shocks absorbers would also likely transform the funding situation 🤞….i appreciate on the surface there seems not to have been progress on this front . But , the creation of the subsidiary (Revive energy solutions) hopefully points towards expected positive development…….coupled with Harald’s impressive cv ….
One thing is for sure , nobody on this BB can assign an accurate probability of success …we are well and truly in the dark !!
Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/salt-y-food-tek
some interesting points
GLA
While I agree high interest rates don’t offer a satisfactory explanation for the depressed SP.
I don’t agree discounted cash flows only matter if earnings are distant ……in 4 years the SP will have to increase 20% just to keep pace with the value of money (if you can get 5% interest). That must factor into the calculations of investors (and definitely institutional investors, which might enter ), especially once you factor the risk associated with investing as opposed to keeping it in the bank.
Agreed. All things being equal, the higher interest rate has a disproportionate impact on companies where the expectation is a large increase in earnings (due to the compound impact of the discount rate on later years earnings).
But, given we have no projected earnings and don't possess enough information to realistically assess the trajectory of earnings (as still gaining traction), it is only part of the answer in relation to the TEK SP imho.
Difficult markets generally, high interest rates increasing the opportunity cost of investment and we are waiting for the portfolio progress to manifest itself in terms of revenue and contracts (and of course the imminent Saltme IPO).
Plenty of hurt for investors at the moment generally, not just for TEK holders.
In the absence of information, I put a significant weighing on my long term view (which is based on research into the portfolios) and assessment of the board. The board are highly qualified and more importantly imho, seem to possess a high degree of integrity, not always the case on AIM.
Means I will be retaining my heavy investment here for the foreseeable future (while always assessing the developments).
Bought a few TEK shares today, for the first time in a couple of years (also moved some shares around, to have as many as possible in ISA for when TEK SP goes exponential :-) ).
GLA
Tulsatel,
I am not against, what could be considered “pessimistic” voices , particularly considered ones. In fact , I normally pay closer attention, incase I am missing something key.
This RNS is a promising development, though the financial implications are not fully known (of course) and there is always risk of failure.
When I first invested, I (admittedly) thought success with microsalt would arrive sooner but my belief in this product has persisted (experience tells me these things rarely meet the preferred timeline).
You seemed to have consistently doubted there was a market for the microsalt product: citing the Mexican market failure (which is an informed view , though not comparable to the US market IMHO) ; walkers crisps (low salt range); Saxo salt ; even that just eating less salt is the solution (taste buds will adapt).
We all have to re-evaluate as new information comes to light (given we are operating in a sphere of so many unknowns )
You seemed to doubt a market existed but now in the face of an agreement ( with a Fortune 500 company with 8000 stores) , you have changed stance and appear to be doing simplistic maths based on assumptions that may well not hold.
I am interested to see how your view evolves …..there’s the obvious trade off , getting in early or waiting (mitigating some of the risk ) as the degree of certainty increases.
Think the most recent placing is weighing on SP sentiment . Things could change quickly .
GLA
Looks a significant achievement, well done Microsalt.
Would be good to understand the “likely” expanding to 7000 stores (contingent on success in the 800 stores and Microsalt capacity to deliver on this scale?)
TEK are capable of progressing on multiple fronts. Exciting times
Lolly, the stated aim of TEK Is to invest money in IP capable of disrupting markets. That is why I invested and am cognisant that this is not an over night process (though potentially , the Guident shocks and a buy out of Lucyd could bring quicker returns). The portfolios are still immature, certainly not market disruptors.
The communication around special dividends, specifically their timing perhaps should have been better.
That said , i am not interested in any structure that releases value to shareholders now (or takes money away from the business ) as I think the optimal return for shareholders (including myself) will be much further down the line
GLA
The developments on the shocks of much more relevant and exciting, than the twaddle :-) on this bb regarding selling of shares (when the SP is hideously below asset values) or paying dividends when the portfolios aren’t generating enough revenue to expand or cover costs (yet!!!!!).
GLA
Sounds very promising news on Guident. The share price feels like a game of snakes and ladders, pushed around in part by shorter term considerations . Us investors will continue to give consideration to the portfolio development and increasing value of the IP. It is still early days.
If a pathway to profit starts to take shape (outside of changes in valuation of IP) this will go exponentially upwards
Tulsatel, the shocks increase the range 5 to 12 miles depending on the road surface. I think , they harvest 70% more energy than existing market regenerative shock absorbers .
I would like some more clarity from Guident regarding the exact increased mileage as a percentage of total range (as I think , the 5 - 12 miles was based on an electric car with bog standard range ).
However, I believe you are making the point that the bmw increased range (I think it is 30% increased range) renders the regenerative shock absorbers redundant. This is misleading imho as any increase in range of the vehicle, will have a proportional increase in the energy harvested by the shocks . So a 30% increase in the case of BMW. I understand BMW are saying that over 600 mile range is unnecessary (but makes perfect sense to me not to waste this useful energy).
Additionally, we are told that manufacturers have been testing the shocks in their own labs and that they perform to specification . Why would they bother testing them if the known specification is worthless ?
I think(hope !) some progress is made on this front and if the price is right we sell them off (so Guident can concentrate on core business).
GLA
Small placement in relative terms if these portfolio companies are going to gain real transaction and become a success.
That said, in terms of investor relations , never going to build much trust , if you pump the price with good news and then hit those investors (and their hard earned money) with a 20% loss (in the short term at least).
Happy New Year everyone. Hope the year ahead is as happy, healthy and prosperous as can be, for you and your families.
The SP is not where we would like it to be. Markets conditions have played a part but the discount to NAV also reflects the credibility applied to our asset values (in what is a more risk adverse environment, with high interest rates).
I continue to be excited regarding the potential of this company. I look forward to concrete progress, which I believe TEK are more than capable of on multiple fronts.