Member Info for Maxi19

Intrusive, can you explain first gen vs second gen?

Is the first gen the NIR material and the second gen the SWIR?

The Yole report only sees STMicro's sensors as viable for commercial production in the medium to near term.

If the Asian customer (supplier to Sony) agreement also progresses then you could have Sony competing with STMicro, but in both cases Nanoco should be supplying dots.

From a technical perspective the barriers to entry appear high, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to have a good view on that.

Put it this way, unless you think the board are entirely dishonest or Samsung won't pay the second litigation instalment then you'll probably be able to sell your shares back to Nanoco next February for at least 22p.

The upside is potential multibagging if a big commercial order comes through.

Who knows. I'm not saying that it is an expensive process, but Apple are really tight on costs and if they wanted it to be $2 each but STMicro could only get it to $3.50 each at the time then that may have prompted a design change.

How do you know? It sounds perfectly reasonable. Btw, I don't think the excessive cost was at Nanoco's end, it was at STMicro's.

What do you mean fully costed? The reports after the cancellation said that the tech was too expensive. BT has said that there was a design change by Apple, which had nothing to do with Nanoco but was about the other people in the supply chain i.e. STMicro.

I think the reasonable conclusion is that Apple changed their design because the sensors were too expensive. But the fact that STMicro carried on the project doesn't suggest that Apple weren't interested in the tech going forward. Jonathan Steikel has emphasised how low cost the NIR and SWIR sensors are. My guess is that this was the message from Apple - get the cost of these down and we'll buy them.

Posted that a while back Intrusive. My view is that is why Apple began the relationship with Nanoco - the ID sensor doesn't perform that well in ambient light, uses up excessive power and could be quicker, all things quantum dots can assist with.

Problem was STMicro couldn't produce the sensors cheap enough at the time. So (my speculation) Apple told STMicro to carry on the development with Nanoco and come back once the sensors were less than $x.

BT has referred to the SWIR sensor as the second gen. Rumours are that the iphone 16 ID camera will be underneath the screen. This is a property suited to SWIR sensors that Yole have highlighted, in that they can absorb a lot more light through a silicon screen than a NIR sensor.

The NIR sensorsp

Nanostory, the only inconsistency there was in the 2020 accounts, which I accept did say potential commercial production. Everything else is consistent with revenue/orders in 2023. The inconsistency of the terms used e.g. visibility, orders, revenues is unhelpful, but the fact that they now *anticipate* orders this year is what you should be focused on.

I actually appreciate the scrutiny Haami has applied, and it's helped to clarify a lot of things in my mind, both in favour and against the board.

Anyway, if there is a decent commercial order Haami may well be in the money by many millions.

Nanostory, I repeat what I said yesterday.

Jonathan Steikel said nothing about when the first commercial order would come. He said he expected the range of devices that will use the SWIR sensor to expand considerably over the next 2-5 years. So Apple could be the first adopter soon and it could then grow in the ecosystem.

Also, this is the SWIR sensor, not the NIR sensors!

Finally, why is the SWIR sensor going through final validation now if it won't have orders for another two years? Makes no sense.

I would also suggest that's why BT said they're closer to production than at any point in the last 20 years i.e. they now have visibility of orders.

Visibility is getting a steer from a customer on orders coming down the line. It's a common term used by suppliers. If you look at the RNSs in Feb and March you'll see they no longer talk about visibility of orders but say they now anticipate orders. That suggests that they now have visibility. They've said before that they wouldn't disclose what their visibility of orders looks like - they'll only release an RNS once they get the order.

Nanostory, I think you're conflating "visibility" of production orders with actual production orders. As far as I'm aware, the board since 2020 has not said they expect actual production orders in 2022. Only this year have they said they now anticipate orders, which to me is a clear indication that they have visibility.

Unless sales of these headsets grow to the tens of millions, I just don't see a material financial benefit to Nanoco. The benefit would be from the publicity of being a supplier, which may or may not give the share price a boost.

Nanostory, if we don't have commercial production or progress on any other front by the end of the year I'll take your plans seriously. But until then let's see what happens.

As for the share price being depressed, this is a small cap with a load of traders recently jumping off board.

Lol, if you want to persuade people on here maybe don't post so many inaccuracies.

They increased headcount from 33 to 44 earlier this year. That's a 33% jump, pretty significant.

Apple have got more money than entire countries. They could buy up every supplier and make iphone components themselves. But shock horror that's not an efficient way to do business.

Runcorn not being a production facility...seriously?

By the way, the STMicro location in Santa Clara just does design. No manufacturing.

I appreciate there is a lot of cynicism following the litigation, but that position just doesn't stack up.

BT has said that in their contracts Nanoco are guaranteed a minimum percentage of manufacturing orders. Do you think he is lying?

Also, remember who built the factory in the first place - Apple. Why would they have done that if they didn't want Nanoco to manufacture the dots?

Also, to pick up on your second point. Jonathan Steikel didn't say commercial production would begin in 2 years, he said you will see SWIR sensors being introduced into a wider array of devices in the next 2-5 years. All of which would be assisted by one player in the market (Apple for instance) adopting it in their tech. He didn't mention when production would start.

Also, that is the SWIR sensor. The NIR sensors is much likelier to receive commercial orders first.

Baoxiou, read the first paragraph of my post again. Do you think STMicro don't give Nanoco a steer on when production is likely to commence? Of course they do. And if STMicro are saying "it looks like 2024 or later" and Nanoco release an RNS saying orders anticipated in 2023 do you think the board could simply get away with that?