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Jupiter, this share has a large price range in play and short supply in market driving volatility.
Fine if you bought at 250 to say not worried I'll wait it out a few years for an outcome.
But if you bought higher controlling risk and mark to market is important. Personally, I got in at 618 & 660 after the initial high, I sold at 754 and 718 banking handsome profits. I say this to demonstrate if I had just sat on that I would now be sittng on a large negative position. But because of the way I traded and managed risk I have now managed to re-enter on pullback and bank more profit.... so each to their own but buy and hold at any price does not work for me
Nice to see a lift from the 550 level where I bought back in.
Now the gloom bit, there is still plenty of technical reasons for this to retest 500/550 zone a put in a new low before advancing too far - all the reasons are in my previous posts. So I will be looking at exiting at least 50% if not all of my holding based upon PA - I would expect this to coincide with the 600/618 level if it can get there.
Charles, you had me worried there for a moment about BHP as a SH
They are not moving to an Australian listing, they are creating a new spin-off company with Woodside which will be listed on the ASX, BHP will remain listed as it is :)
HKK
My point is Summit did NOT purchase 134,498,076 shares last Thursday.. and it is misleading for people to keep saying they did.
They are an original investor prior to IPO their share holding will reflect their percentage ownership from the date that the company IPOd and issued shares.
All you can tell from the TR1 notification is that on 5th August they ended up with a balance of 134,498,076 shares being some 19.28%
This means that they either SOLD some shares and fell below the 20% mark (minimum sale would be 5,027,949 shares)
or bought some shares and crossed above the 19% mark (minimum buy would be 1,948,352 shares)
Given that on the 5th Darktrace confirmed locked up share sales totalling 23,150,000 shares my moeny is that Summit actually was wrapped up in the sale and sold at least 5,027,949 shares
The dates at too coincidental and it makes no sense whatsoever for a large founding investor to be buying above £6 when they already hold a large stake.
That is my take on it, but for sure nobody bought 134m shares
all the best
HKK
ok no worries, I am still flat I have not seen enough price action to get me back in yet.
I prefer to separate trading strategy from emotions for a company as it increases profits and reduces losses.... not always easy to do, when I fail it is normally a failure to get out rather than in :(
Charles / HKK
you guys crack me up, you spin it all you like but you should also be able to accept Claire's position - it is the same as mine, she has a target entry of 550 nothing wrong with that....
If it goes up from here it does not mean shorts are losing, it simply means the short exit strategy will play - most likely the shorts are from the second high test so around 750 and have plenty of breathing space to still be in profit.
and if it goes up and 550 is not realised as an entry then it does not mean we lost out, there are plenty of ways to get in with a higher probability entry than just using FOMO... because to be successful it means playing the market game
we could easily argue that sitting on losses is dumb, averaging at these high prices is wrong etc etc. but each to their own gl
HKK - share price rarely reflects fair value, instead it reflects market sentiment.
Right now if Cloudstrike is x67 ARR then it is clearly over priced so using that as a yard stick is working with outliers.
SP will not move in a straigh line, a baseline was set at 250 the bottom of the IPO range - that reflects not as much interest in the shares from IIs as you would like to imagine at the time of the IPO. Yes that interest will grow as the company grows but it is not suddenly going to go up in magnitudes, it has already done that on hype and short supply from 250 to 787.
If you step away from looking purely at it's potential and look at how markets and SP work then you will realise that in order to support a higher SP it first has to consolidate price levels and take on board some retracement.
There are many ways to calculate that, not possible to put a picture on here which is a shame but: a very commonly used method is a retrace of 50-62% of the rise 250-787 = target range 454-518
Other methods include EW ABC or previous turning points in price which reflect a change in sentiment in this case below 787 they are: 718, 672 both passed 551, 530, 458, 522
without consolidation and retrace the SP will simply collapse as it would require continued volume buying to remaining bouyant - this has already been demonstrated by the significant pullback from 787
history says the current dip is not yet sufficient in size to provide stability and it is likely to put in a deeper test before a new high above 787
I am a trader since the 90s I have been through the significant events of dotcom, financial crisis etc. I have traded currencies, shares, commodoties through variuos methods of direct, options, spot and futures. I develop and sell trading tools and have a forum where I have provided many analysis charts in advance of proce movements... so I really have been here and seen this all before...... It does mean SP will do what I say, sentiment can change CEO can be caught with their pants down (literally :)) etc. but with significant reliability retraces happen and often to the target zone - it really does not matter about the value of the company that is what the market says it is on any given day.
all the best
HKK. A little smoke and mirrors there…. Summit did not buy all those shares last week. That is just their total position. It would have been impossible to buy that many because they are not in circulation
Plus the $150m. at 620 Was c23m shares and at least 18m of them were sold straight away for price 620 to 657.
So IIs are not buying at this level…
HereKittyKitty
and those IIs offloaded most of them on the same day in the price range 620-657 a 19m volume day
it was most likely trickery IMO to get around the lockup period and exit at a high price - which they deemed 620
Charlesrixon, I don't think it does include placed shares because that is completely off book. Also the volume would be greater than the 23mil if it did.
Don't get me wrong I think this is a great share, just about getting the right price and I am currently without holding as I sold out. IIs and MMs feed off the retail fear of missing out and that fear is what causes lots of retail losses.