Member Info for mattwales

trumps reserves plan failed as soon as the market realised they only have 78 million barrels of oil capacity left in their reserves.

$500 million of cash they hold may seem a lot but there is no way it is going to be sustainable where their business got wiped out overnight.

Added to this Carnivals bondholders will be assessing risk of default and correctly assessing with hardly any passengers this will default.

The sooner they raise cash the sooner their risk assessment from bondholders will be put off.

Its raise cash now or debt for equity swap because there is no way they can ride this out.

its a liquidity crisis americans repatriated all their cash out of china/emerging markets to dollars leding to a shortage of dollars in those markets. Assets are the forced to be sold to buy the shortage of dollars in those systems.

its exacerbated by everyone trying to pay down their margin debts etc and banks will sell assets and hoard cash all at once leading to deflation.

the scariest thing is this meltdown is quicker than 1929 with everyone shrugging it off saying it'll be over soon.

when trump and the fed throw trillions at the system and the boe follow like 2008, thats the time to buy.

you understand the tide went out for everyone this isnt a crash it a financial crisis like 2008 plus a bloody virus on top.

first thing we have seen is currency outflows out of china and all emerging markets.

this leads to a dollar shortage in those countries right so what do people do they are forced to sell assets to then buy dollars which brings them usd for their system.

at the same time their currencies fall against the usd.

then investment banks severely cut derivative risk leading to more of a sell off.

treasuries are suppose to go up while stocks go down.

the other day both fell suggesting massive contagion in the syetem as everyone headed for cash.

yes but its a liquidity issue as when the **** hits the fan americans skedaddle out of every market and repatriate dollars.

its why the fed upped dollar limits.

however, stocks are continuing to go down because banks need cash and you can be your life some banks and hedge funds were long oil and dow etc before the bubble bust.

we have contagion in the system we just havent seen a bear stearns/lehman event yet.

the amount of wealth destruction in the stock market will feed through to property.

Especially when airline people, travel agents, taxi drivers, retail, oil people and financial services get clobbered losing their jobs.

Chinese property sales down substantially these the same rich who prop up London.

Banks will lose so much cash with failed businesses they will target companies for debt to equity swaps.

The markets are uninvestible till Trump/Fed throw trillions at it.

not sure any of that matters lytham, we could easily hit 17p like 2016.

all fundamentals gone in this market and everything set to get worse with Europe and USA lockdown to come.

when businesses start going to the wall you watch the bankers demanding debt for equity swaps.

not just across oil but across multi industries.

i'm surprised people are buying and its not down to £10 already on that news.

Swindon as debt is so close to market cap the likelihood of a partial debt to equity swap grows.

they'd going to need a few billion to ride it out if they shut down all operations.

by the time they raise cash they could be worth a few billion.

bad management they knew serious problem why didnt they raise at £30.

they are going to need cash and fast or they are bust.

Saudi Arabia dumped billions of barrels of oil in Europe at $25 adding to the carnage Trump cancelling air travel to Europe.
india also locking out countries and Denmark just hit a lockdown.

Europe, USA Uk, Australis will probably go into lockdown within 2-4 weeks.

not pretty is it but worse still to come for the markets in general.

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

we havent heard of any bank or hedge fund in the **** because of leverage yet either.

treasury bills being sold off the same time as shares suggests there is a contagion issue.

speed of this crash is way faster than 2008, its more like 1929

the speed of this crash is much faster than 2008 its more like 1929.

the speed of this crash is way faster than 2008 its more like 1929

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51835856