Member Info for mattlilly

Watch these AFF85....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEB8HwKaod8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r6lzqsbqsE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy9MGzKNquQ

Everything in that post was rubbish Quady...

Nobody said $5,000 by now...

Nobody said $10,000 b y the end of the year...

Worst of all, you keep telling lies about Basel 3...You clearly don't understand Capital Adequacy having never managed it, whereas I've managed it in Major Financial Services companies, up to £20 Billion assets...also Wholesale funding up to £2.5 Billion and Treasury assets held for liquidity up to £4.5 billion...

"Gold. Gold is still the go-to-money and on March 29th, Basel III rules go into effect. Gold will now be treated as a Tier 1 asset. The Bank of International Settlement (BIS) will recognize central banks holdings of physical gold as a reserve asset equal to cash."

https://dgstudentfinance.com/qa/is-gold-a-tier-1-asset.html

"Tier 1 capital is the primary funding source of the bank. ..."

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/043015/what-difference-between-tier-1-capital-and-tier-2-capital.asp

I think news will appear in the next week following last weeks Board meeting...

Quady and any of you other guys who might be interested in the June 1 Basel 3 consequences for the Gold market might like to watch this video up to or around th 20 minute mark...

The reason why Gold WILL be affected is that the LBMA is unallocated and therefore banks will have to go to 85% to stay in the game....implicit prediction is that some dealers will withdraw, trades will go to the Shanghai ME (which is cash and carry; and the multi year permashort will start to unwind to the benefit of Gold prices.

Fundamental thesis...the Big Boys have been shorting paper gold for years (and silver) to allow them to acquire unprecedented amounts of physical gold at knockdown prices...so while small investors were being told that gold/silver are in a bear market, thereby persuading them to get out, banks and hedge funds were filling their boots, but...

You can't buy silver coins for immediate delivery anywhere...the registered bullion dealer on the video has had his best month ever in 31 years and people are buying especially silver like there is tomorrow...

Anyhow see what you make of it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHhScbxIqTU

Seems like we've all got red hot fingers...

UT at 21.55p...so we bought at just about the lowest offer of the day...

Well done guys...have a good one...

Bought a total of 95239 at an average 21.56 just before the close...

Lets see what happens next week...stick, twist, but not bust...

Well done Pinot...good article...

As an aside I have EQX for a long term hold...1 million ounces of gold a year from 2022...Ross Beaty the 'owner' describes it as his 'Swansong' investment...

I don't think BHP, NCM or CGP are pulling any strings...

I just think there's been a 'charm offensive' since the AGM to rebuild relationships and that all three are now back in the tent...

It would be very surprising if both they and Solgold aren't considering all their options...this is a moving picture, especially with the way copper prices are moving around...

I completely agree rcgl...the smart thing to do..collective RNSs but only when there is something meaningful to report.

addict you know I support your views but I really don't think a 3 way J/V is an opinion...

However a BHP J/V for Alpala and a NCM or Barrick J/V for Porvenir and/or Rio makes a lot of sense, especially when you look at the phenomenal response in the GGP SP from a NCM J/V that will end up with GGP only owning 25%...

If we go down that road we should be looking at 50/50 at worst (and yes that cuts out CGP...yippee!)

If you bothered to read and understand my posts you would realise that embedded in that post were direct quotes lifted from yesterdays' options RNS...

Why don't you stop looking for a fight and stick to finding, expressing, validating and confirming facts...

Another lie Quady. I've said it would be easier to finance if we had a J/V partner.

Just read again the four possible scenarios I posted a couple of days ago.

And ask yourself why I would invest all that time and research to determine the earliest Solgold could pay a dividend...

Rio go through the PEA with a fine tooth comb...

To talk about a mix of any or all of debt, equity and streaming...

I have made it very clear that it will be difficult, I just done think Alpala will got it alone. A JV with BHP is the smart move because it would release so much capital to develop[ the 'string of pearls'...

With regard to a bid, yes there is a price that I would accept and again I've clearly stated that as £1/2...

I've also posted here and told the company themselves that a coherent PFS and/or JV proposal needs to be put together PDQ, otherwise Solgold will be vulnerable to a bid...

Sorry to disappoint your jaundiced view Quady...

Having created options for a quoted company myself, I can tell you there is a limit as to how much your Nomad will let you get away with, in relation to a discount on the current share price.

It will be interesteng to see who gets them.

They are supposed to be a loyalty incentive. 36p is a 65% uplift on the present price.

The last options in April 202 were granted at 25p when the SP was 26p...

But the previous ones in October 2019 were granted at 60p when the SP was 17.22...a 248% uplift

So I shouldn't worry too much...as the Executive Scheme isn't mentioned, it is reasonable to assume that these are for the staff and that is absolutely right and fair.

Just looking further down the RNS, these two quotes catch the eye...:

"SolGold is currently progressing its Pre-Feasibility Study. Franco-Nevada will receive a perpetual 1% NSR interest from the Cascabel licence area.

SolGold is currently assessing financing options available to the Company for the development of the Alpala mine following completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study."

Which doesn't disabuse my view that the PFS and then DFS/Financing could all follow closely together, creating minimal delay in the construction/production timings. I Know the Company is looking very carefully at the 'North Amerucan' market, where there is a ready, hungry secondary buyer named Jerome Powell...

And also...

"The Company wholly owns four other subsidiaries active throughout the country that are now focussed on thirteen high priority gold and copper resource targets, several of which the Company believes have the potential, subject to resource definition and feasibility, to be developed in close succession or even on a more accelerated basis compared to Alpala."

"or even on a more accelerated basis compared to Alpala..."

This would fit with, for example, an IPO of Green Rock Resources or, say a JV of Rio Amarillo with NCM, Barrick, etc....

Very little mention of gold...

I was previously invested in Atalaya Mining for several years:

Their 'Rio Tinto' mine produces 13.6 million Tonnes of ore a year, but it was only 6.5 MT in the first year of production and that was an established, reopened deep mine with substantial infrastructure still on site...

Copper recovery was excellent at 83.3% to produce 57m lb copper for a current value of $230m, but with an AISC of $2.55/lb (currently $2.30 for a well established mine).

So even if Solgold could match that with a start up mine, it would have generated $86 million Operating Profit in copper equivalent terms, before Admin, interest costs, royalties to the Ecuador Government and taxes....

"Corta Atalaya is the largest open-pit mine in Europe[1] and was at one time the largest in the world.[citation needed] It is located within the city limits of Minas de Riotinto in the province of Huelva, autonomous community of Andalusia, Spain.[2] It is roughly elliptical in shape, 1,200 metres (3,900 ft) long, 900 metres (3,000 ft) wide, and 350 metres (1,150 ft) deep.[1][2][3] It was one of the most ambitious projects of the Rio Tinto Group.[citation needed] At its peak it employed 2,000 workers mining copper; it was actively mined until 1992.[4] Since at least 1994 it has been flooded up to the 16th ring.[3]

This open-pit mine in the western part of the Masa San Dionisio[4] was begun in 1907"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corta_Atalaya

Thanks for the gracious apology.

Onwards and upwards...

Oops!

Did you actually read that?

Its headed "New High Grade Copper and Gold Assays from 869.68m to 1194m at Alpala"

Can you find me an open cast mine that is 870 metres deep (2854 feet) and you have to dig down that far first...

Bingham Canyon is the deepest but they started digging in 1906.

Chuquicamata is the second deepest at only 850 metres...

rcgl...."$1bn revenue by open pit mining along the way"

Remember that is NET revenue, not Gross and even at a AISC of $1200, that is still 2 MILLION ounces of Gold Equivalent...

Just lying around....?

As Lunch Money has said:

"I seem to recall the Cu/Au grades in first 500m-600m at Alpala were quite low. "

Your post makes a lot of sense as usual rcgl...

It seems clear that the PFS will propose some open cut mining while the block cave is built, but if any bank is going to fund the sort of mumbers you are talking about for Alpala and given that you have to build the crusher, infrastructure, etc anyway, while the open cut delivers an unknown amount of gross revenue immediately after cutting and when all the plant and infrastructure are in place, there will still be growing and substantial Capital costs to be funded, starting from no later than Jan 2022 even if the original schedule is stuck to.

My calculation of £160 million a year was based on only $3 Billion and, to be fair, we don't yet know how this will be funded.

It is likely to be a mix of debt, streaming and equity or any or all of these. As I've said we have an indicator of the annual cost of the streaming from the FNV agreement (i.e. 12%).

I have used 8% for debt funding, which to be frank is very ambitious. High quality 50 year US Bond yields are currently 3.23%, but this is forecast to rise. The cheapest I've seen anywhere else recently for a mining project was 7.1/2%. The problem is we have no track record and might well get no better than a BBB rating or even 'junk'.

Equity means dilution for all of us and that has an opportunity cost, especially in the effect on the SP, depending on the scale.

Although I get the logic of mining gold by open cut in the early years to generate cashflow, there is still the growing debt (and associated interest), the Company Operating costs (currently c$5m pa but will rise very much higher as the PEA makes clear) and the AISC (which I have generously valued at $1200/ounce. It is likely to be much higher than that for early low levels of production, because you still have ALL the depreciation and amortisation costs to pay annually for as the CAPEX develops.

So even if you have only $2 billion debt to finance in year one, the interest cost would be £64 million. and altogether you would still need to mine c200,000 ounces of gold equivalent in year one just to cover all costs and generate net revenue.

The Accumulated losses are already $141.4 million and this is likely to increase to well over $200 million based on the drill program outlined in the last MD&A. So these have to be expunged before any chance of dividends.

Meanwhile, the CAPEX will be building towards your $5 billion very fast, because the "Fast 50MTa" business case with a NPV of 4.4Billion and a 'payback' of 3.6 years from start of production still has to be paid for otherwise the Business Case falls apart.

And if Alpala was going to be an open cut mine, it would have been daft not to build the business case entirely on that rather than a block cave, but the simple fact is that some of this ore goes down to almost 2,000 metres if my memory serves me correct (but I am happy to be put straight).

I hope this helps

I promise I am going to desist...you cannot argue with someone like him...

Please, if you think I am posting reasoned factual common sense, tick this post and I promise I will leave the matter of dividends to lie.

Here however is what we are up against...

"Your arguments are nonsense, because you are creating your own straw man to knock down...."

"Why not take an unbiased view and look at what the situation would have to be in mine output, to pay a dividend in the early years."

I have read every relevant document that is available in the public domain, in the UK (RNS, Solgold website) and Canada (SEDAR).

I have created a spreadsheet based on the facts in the PEA and the technical corrections.

My view on the likelihood of paying a dividend is simply based on the PEA numbers as prepared by Wood, together with 47 years as a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, 43 years as a Fellow of the Banking Institute and 23 years as a FD of Major or quoted companies and/or in Corporate Finance and Treasury (FCIT).

It is a dispassionate, reasoned argument. The only things I get passionate about are being called a liar or misconstruction or manipulation of information I have openly posted on here.

Yesterday I posted:

"I agree with everything you say Lunch Money and sadly, having reviewed every presentation and webinar on Youtube and Twitter, every PEA, MRE, NI 43-101 and corrections..."

I don't need to repeat the many unsound postings that you have all read. This is another:

"But we could start dividends straight away, as although payback is just over 4 years, we can renegotiate to have gearing set at 40%.
This is normal, and would allow for further exploration and an immediate dividend...."

So in conclusion. the challenges addickt and I have received on this matter have NEVER been substantiated by facts or the maths that were demanded of US.

Although I will leave alone any further discussion about dividends, I shall continue to 'call out' misstatements, factual errors and unsound opinions that might otherwise lead posters on here to be misled in their investment decisions,

I hope you understand...best wishes to all...