Some thoughts and musings.26 Apr 2018 16:29
Is Colin Bird about to play the equivalent of a Royal Flush at XTR?
Moz Gold have Alluvial rights on FB block M until August. They will then move onto another area within Manica to process alluvial material - why?
Omnia have a free reign on the non-DFS sites all over Manica, they are clearing / stockpiling alluvials to access the hard rock - which could be processed by Moz when they leave M block? - Is that what the equity stake / takeover of Moz is aimed at - Moz assisting in the access to Hard Rock whilst generating revenue and helping Omnia at the same time? (Maybe why Omnia agreed to MOZ taking over the Omnia Alluvial plant?)
Then there’s the Omnia 50/50 split (at no risk to XTR) on non DFS Hard Rock - Dots Luck, Guy Fawkes, Boa Esperanza plus other (as yet undefined resource) within the Manica licence. *Important to note that Omnia are not heavily committed to alluvial processing in their new contract.
Can Colin make a deal with Nexus? They (Nexus) take the FB DFS Hard Rock (30koz p/a) with an 80-20 split ( 20% free ride = $7.8m p/a net with spot gold c$1300) plus, they relinquish their rights to the 60% Alluvial income from Explorator.
Omnia at 50/50 (risk free) non-DFS Hard Rock = $5m p/a net min’? - I can’t see Omnia agreeing to a 50/50 split without significantly more than $5m to them (net) per year? - So I consider that a conservative figure.
100% of the 25% to Explorator (assuming it’s Nexus after FB DFS) = $12m p/a net min’ (Sino + Moz) = minimum $4m p/m which is what Sino produced in Q4 ‘17 prior to their ramp up in mid January ‘18)
Based on this ‘speculation’ the total revenue to XTR (including that of the 100% owned Explorator) would be:
$7.8m p/a DFS
$5m p/a minimum (Omnia Non-DFS)
$12m +/- Alluvials (Sino and Moz)
Total revenue $24.8m p/a
$24.8m = £17.73m p/a
COSTS:
Present corporate costs XTR c£550k
Increased Alluvial costs c£1.5m p/a (based on $254k Explorator / Nexus combined costs for Q4 ‘17 and allowing for increase / additional costs)
Total Rev £17.73m
Costs £2.05m
Net Revenue £15.68m
P/E of 5 (conservative on 7yr LOM which will likely be extended in due course)
= £78.4m MCAP
£78.4m / 350.561 Sii = 22.36pps
Interestingly, this ( speculative by me) business plan would not require any additional financing or equity raises subject to agreements to conclude JV contracts.
We would, I expect, provide (and pay for) further drills throughout Manica and explore new ventures over the border in Zimbabwe - following the green belt that generated the Manica resource.
This would be from cash revenues if proceeded with toward the end of 2018.
Perhaps this is why Colin keeps reiterating “Manica consolidation”
Just my thoughts, musings and speculation.
As always - Do your own research.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
